Hoosier

I'll be fairly surprised if summer doesn't end up warmer than average in the means for most of the sub.

These cell phone disruptions are annoying. Was wondering why I wasn't getting any calls or texts since this afternoon.

Looks like July 1934

A fluke or a sign?

No guarantees but given how active the hurricane season looks to be and what may be the overall longwave pattern later in summer, would not be surprised if we see another remnant tropical system or two move through the region. But let's get some severe threats first.

Tomorrow we go into the deep end of the pool here in Indiana. Bars, movie theaters and other stuff that has been closed can operate at 50%. Limit on crowd size goes up to 250, including events like weddings and parties.

Allen county, IN (where Fort Wayne is) has started putting up bigger daily case numbers than Marion and Lake counties, even though it is #3 in population. Wonder if they recently increased their testing capacity more than the other counties or if there is some other explanation.

Wow

Given what has already occurred and what is yet to come, this event looks like it will live up across the region, generally speaking. About what you would expect for an ENH to MOD risk.

Remember when the heat was supposed to help? There are all kinds of variables at work of course. I have read that dry heat may spread it better than a humid airmass.

Hospitalization numbers have been increasing in some states, mainly in the south.

Based on reports/pics, it looks like the absolute worst may have gone like a half mile to mile to my west.

Blasted here. Definitely severe criteria.

Here's one you would've liked

New thread for the June 10 MOD risk

I'd probably put it in my top 5 in terms of tropical remnants. No high end weather... but between the winds, tropical downpours and tornado warned cells, it was pretty good in the context of tropical remnants.

Temp has rebounded to 81 here with winds still pretty gusty. What a night.

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1012 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 1010 PM CDT An interesting environment continues to reside over the southern forecast area, particularly along and east of the I-55 corridor. A severe threat, conditional on sustained storms, continues in that area even into the overnight, though confidence is on the lower end on the coverage and magnitude of convection as it moves northeastward especially late tonight toward the pre-dawn. The circulation remnants of Cristobal have lifted north into Wisconsin, with an impingement of more of a mid-latitudeelevated mixed layer around its southern influence and over our southern forecast area. This coincides with a low-level warm sector inching its way northward from central Illinois. A boundary that was part left from Cristobal and enhanced from earlier outflow,is draped southwestward from the south Chicago metro near I-55 into west central/southwest Illinois. Scattered convection of a more mature/deeper character has developed along this the past hour to two in central Illinois back into northern Missouri. Likely this is combination of the aforementioned features and the oddity of a warm core system pulling away from the region thus reducing the 700 mb cap of 13C seen on the 00Z ILX sounding. Because of this, convection the next few hours is expected to have a gradual uptick and not explosive such as with a triggering mechanism moving in. In the residual tropical atmosphere characterized by 18C-19C 850 mb dew points, it will continue to not take much of an impetus to get convection to fester along the boundary or grow given MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg and increasing. These cells have had much more lightning than the earlier activity directly associated with Cristobal`s remnants, and that along with colder IR-sampled cloud tops indicate the deeper updrafts to balance high helicity (effective 400 m2/s2) and deep layer shear (40 kts). As scattered convection is expected to continue, supercell-like structures are likely to be common if cells to not amalgamate or become too close in proximity near the boundary. If cells can maintain discrete attributes, they will have some tornado threat given the low- level kinematics and low-level instability for stretching pre- existing vorticity. These will also continue to be some wind threat too, as well as possibly a localized flooding threat given some training potential. The convection allowing models (CAMs) present quite a spectrum of solutions, not surprising in such a moist troposphere. Feel that the most likely solution is convection continue to have a slow uptick in central Illinois into the southeast third of the forecast area (east central IL and northwest IN) through early overnight. There will probably be at least isolated activity to continue even into daybreak as an upper/mid level speed max from the true mid-latitude wave approaches. This will need to be assessed further, particularly if deeper convection could resurge /re-develop in or near northwest Indiana later Wednesday morning/early Wednesday afternoon as the upper wave center moves over the region. MTF

Finally declared post-tropical in Wisconsin. If that holds up in reanalysis, it would be the first system on record to retain tropical characteristics into Wisconsin. Either way, we are talking many hundreds of miles and perhaps in excess of 1000 miles over land before it lost all of its tropical characteristics. Very impressive. BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristobal Advisory Number 34 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL032020 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2020 ...CRISTOBAL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.5N 90.4W ABOUT 180 MI...330 KM NW OF CHICAGO ILLINOIS ABOUT 60 MI...110 KM NW OF MADISON WISCONSIN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for... * Parts of the Midwest and western Great Lakes Wind Advisories are in effect for... * Chicagoland and areas adjacent to Lakes Michigan and Superior A Gale Warning is in effect for... * Lake Michigan * Eastern Lake Superior * Portions of Lake Huron For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristobal was located near latitude 43.5 North, longitude 90.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue as Cristobal tracks toward Lake Superior and then into Ontario, Canada by Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some further strengthening is possible as Cristobal fully transitions to an extratropical low. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Winds gusting over 45 mph are expected tonight and Wednesday over Chicagoland and areas adjacent to the western Great Lakes. RAINFALL: Cristobal will produce storm total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches from southeast Minnesota through much of Wisconsin, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and parts of lower Michigan. This rainfall may produce flash flooding, and is forecast to produce new and renewed minor to moderate river flooding across portions of the mid to upper Mississippi Valleys. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Burke

Would anticipate tomorrow's risk area to be pulled westward on the new update... at least the marginal/slight.

Watching southern Will county again

I had to speed through dinner to get outside lol. Rotation passed almost right overhead and now another tornado warned cell will pass to my nw.

The one in southern Livingston county looks interesting. Would not be surprised if we get quick touchdowns that go unwarned on a day like this.

Sun is out again.