Hoosier

Wild divergence between the 3 km and 12 km NAM tomorrow night.

Guess it depends. If it can get in at like 4 am, I'd consider that marginally better than 7 am.

18Z HRRR was pretty far north with Sat-early Sun.

I'd agree with that at this point. Timing not great (could be even worse I guess) and also some indications of any heavier activity missing to the west.

Models often seem to overdo the northward ridge pulses at 7-10 days (sometimes less). Anecdotally I'd say that's more common than the other way around... usually you are not going to see a big ridge sneak up on you without ample notice.

As far as how to classify the deaths, it should be the best medical judgement of whatever caused the death. Some of the cancer plus covid cases may be tough to tell as far as which one caused the death, but typically it should be pretty clear.

The beaches have been packed though. Speaking of which, some of them are going to be closing. I guess too many people not observing proper distancing.

You could make that argument. We have been at those percentages with the bars and restaurants since June 12 and the rise in cases here has been gradual... nothing like FL, TX, AZ, CA. Perhaps there is just a lag and it will start to accelerate at some point. I do think some states/cities may be able to get away with a bit more opening than others. Like having bars at 50% in Kokomo, IN or Indianapolis may not be as big of a problem as having bars at 50% in Miami. Miami is obviously a huge party/tourist spot.

Indiana governor is extending the current restrictions until at least August. So restaurants will remain at max of 75% indoor capacity and bars at 50%. We have been able to keep our rise in cases under control with those percentages so no use playing with fire and going to 100%

Can see it lurking on the 3 km NAM too. Actually pretty cool looping that run... you see it start with an east/northeast movement and then take the turn.

That seems like it is the bigger issue at this point. It is a problem if you're waiting 1 or 2 weeks for the test result.

If we maintain the current daily fatality numbers from now through the end of the year, we will be around 300,000 deaths by Jan 1. Hopefully that doesn't happen. The modeling is projecting about 800-1000 deaths per day for quite a while though.

California is starting to ration testing... not everyone will be able to get one. Not sure if this is happening anywhere else. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1233963

Can you guys knock it off? And I'll take the opportunity to give a general reminder to try to address the substance of people's posts without the name calling.

Tornado warned storm has made a noticeable right turn compared to before.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 348 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 348 PM CDT Watching an impressively wound-up convectively-enhanced Mesoscale Convective Vortex lifting northeastward out of Central Illinois this afternoon. This feature seems to have been born out of convection last night across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Typically the more well-developed MCV`s carry with them a flow enhancement, and that certainly seems to be the case here. Lincoln`s special 17z sounding sampled 50-60 kts of flow in the 550-400 mb layer, and this is supporting effectively deep layer shear values of about 50 kts into our southern counties. While overall instability values aren`t high (likely due to somewhat pronounced mid-level warming noted on the aforementioned sounding), recent objective SPC mesoanalysis depicts a corridor of 150 to nearly 200 J/kg of 0-3 km MLCAPE, more than sufficient in concert with the elevated shear values to locally augment low and mid- level updraft accelerations. It is thus not a surprise to see an established supercell northwest of Bloomington. The concern locally here is that even in the face of limited instability from a typical sense (read: MLCAPE), a hodograph run using KILX`s radar and the rather deviant storm motion on the right-motion vector and breezy southeast winds yields 0-3 km SRH values nearing 400-450 m2/s2. As a result, we did recently coordinate a small/targeted tornado watch for our far southwestern counties to highlight this localized threat developing over the next few hours. Corridor of localized damaging wind gusts and some hail threat will also exist in this region, although the limit on the hail potential should be capped a bit by the muted mid-level lapse rates. The severe threat will likely have a harder time building too much farther northwest than I-55 given the expansive and persistent cloud cover today holding temperatures down, but peeks of sunshine south and east of there may help locally boost the severe potential through this afternoon and into the evening. Finally, we are still monitoring at least a localized flash flood threat into the evening as rather slow storm motions and at least some potential for a bit of training will be possible within a richly-moist atmosphere. Already seeing some 2-3" rainfall amounts out of the storms upstream. Greatest signal for this potential is across roughly the southeastern half of the CWA. Carlaw

Winds backed all out ahead of that earlier tor cell so will have to keep an eye on iso tor threat

Cells w/sw of Peoria could head this way later on.

Good step. Now for the big trial that includes people who aren't so healthy.

This is really the biggest concern. It is impossible to keep the virus contained to younger age groups when you have so many cases (and FL has a lot of multigenerational housing). That heat map is a nice depiction of it trickling into the older age groups more over time.

Not the race you want to be in CA, FL, TX

I agree with that. All labs should report all of their test results as they are supposed to do. Transparency is a good thing. How much the lack of reporting some of the negative results is affecting the statewide positive percentage is hard to say. In any case, there is clearly a problem in parts of FL right now based on the other metrics.

That link doesn't mention incorrect positive tests. It says that there are negative test results that haven't been reported. That is two different things. Not reporting all of the negative tests would affect the positive test percentage but not the raw number of positive cases.

Sorry about your mom. I can relate to what you're saying about the medical field. And DON'T get me started on nursing homes. I could write a book on that stuff due to unfortunately having more up close experience than I'd like at my age.

I'd lean toward Sun at this point. I threw Monday in there in case things slow down.