Hoosier

We really need widespread, effective rapid result testing. I don't have a lot of confidence in schools being able to catch outbreaks in time before they turn into dozens or hundreds of cases. I definitely think we will have instances of that. Yes, kids are statistically lower risk of serious illness, but then it spills out where it can affect more vulnerable people.

Some schools around here are going to be starting off with online learning or even doing the whole semester online, while others are starting off with in person learning or the hybrid model. This will create a live experiment of sorts, although kids have friends and get together with kids who live in other towns which will still result in a lot of mixing. I don't pretend to have all the answers, but I'm not sure about the hybrid model of kids going to school in person for 2 or 3 days a week and staying at home for the other 2 or 3 days. There is still about 6-8 hours of possible exposure on the days they are there in person. Holding classes outdoors seems like a decent idea just from a virus standpoint, though I imagine it would be easier for kids to become distracted outdoors and you could only do that for so long in many parts of the country.

I try to give people the benefit of the doubt on that. Maybe they don't have hand sanitizer on them or something and don't want to touch the mask. But otherwise it is a bit over the top.

They would be so screwed if they had a cat 2/3 charging into the northeast... and it will happen again someday. Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 300 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 ...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... On Long Island, New York, the following wind reports have been received during the past hour... Farmingdale Airport (KFRG)...gust to 78 mph (126 km/h) JFK Airport (KJFK)...gust to 70 mph (113 km/h) La Guardia Airport (KLGA)...gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) Fire Island...gust 67 mph Strong and damaging winds will continue to spread northward across the New York City metropolitan area, including eastern Long Island and southern New England, that could knock down trees and power lines. SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.5N 74.8W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM S OF MONTICELLO NEW YORK ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

If this thing had more time over water to organize (even 12 hours) it would've been one of the all-timers for the I-95 corridor. The forward speed has increased to 40 mph, and that rapid forward speed is a key factor in getting more impactful storms in the mid Atlantic/northeast. The thing that was lacking was the landfall intensity of cat 1.

JFK was sustained at 51 and gusting to 70 a little while ago. Also some good video of a tornado moving onshore in NJ this morning.

There has been too much wandering away from virus talk into larger economic debates. I will close the thread if it doesn't stay more focused on the virus and its direct impacts.

Pretty good intensification in the past couple hours and it's not going to weaken as quickly as it normally would due to baroclinic enhancement. They may have some problems up the coast.

Eventful forecast for the NYC area. This is the zone for the Bronx Bronx- 356 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening, then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. .TUESDAY...Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Humid with highs in the upper 70s. East winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming southeast and increasing to 45 to 55 mph with gusts up to 70 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Tropical storm conditions expected. Mostly cloudy with showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Humid with lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 45 to 55 mph with gusts up to 70 mph, diminishing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 80 percent.

I haven't figured out how to do it. I liked the old design better.

In Soviet Russia you don't get vaccine. Vaccine get you!

Canada, eh

Looks like this will be the first Saturday with 1000+ reported deaths since the end of May. We will hit 200k in the first week of September at the rate we're going.

This is a little foreboding as schools are getting ready to return. No, it's not the same thing as a school, but the number of people that caught the virus in that short amount of time is shocking. Hundreds of Georgia campers infected with coronavirus at YMCA camp in just days, CDC report finds https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/hundreds-georgia-campers-infected-with-coronavirus-ymca-summer-camp-cdc-report-finds/EL5FFTVSDVETRGROPEXK6CIZNM/?outputType=amp

What about New York City specifically? I know they were not doing indoor dining as of 3 or 4 weeks ago but not sure if something changed. Limited indoor dining seems like it can work. The bigger problem comes when you increase the capacity toward 75-100% and of course the bars are ripe for spreading.

I will remember that when it comes back around in 6 years.

The places that were hammered in winter/spring generally took a slower approach with reopening. Forget the bars, is indoor dining even open yet in NYC? Or if it is, what's the percent capacity?

Ok, how the hell do you pronounce the name of the current hurricane? I know it's not "i-say-uhs."

Indiana recently added something nice to the dashboard. There is a breakdown of the number of unique individuals tested as well as the total number of tests each day so you get a sense of how many multiple tests have been done.

ORD will finish with the 4th warmest July on record. No real extreme heat (a few respectively hot days) but relentlessly warmer than average.

7 day average deaths have eclipsed 1000. That is where we were at the end of May/start of June. It was inevitable that the deaths were going to rise after the cases exploded, but I was hoping we'd keep the weekly average under 1000/day. Now you just hope it doesn't climb much higher.

Your county strikes me as an outlier as far as the distribution of deaths. I looked it up and the latest population estimate for Livingston county is 190,000. I would bet there aren't many counties of that size that have 95-100% of the covid deaths coming from nursing homes. I could see that being more common in very rural counties where it stays mostly contained inside of the facilities.

I do think it matters in some ways, but in other ways not. Like, we would have a contingent of deniers/minimizers out there no matter what because, well, that's how we roll. Would rather not rehash the blame game in here though because we know that it will inevitably wade into problem territory for this thread (and everyone is probably pretty much set in their beliefs anyway)

Heard that from my sister, who has basically been looking for any way possible to discredit the pandemic. That raises an obvious question about those stories. How do they know whom to call if people are leaving before getting tested? Or is there some kind of check in process when you first show up?