Hoosier

I think it's possible there is a day or two of 90s at MKE on Wednesday and/or Thursday, but that is getting almost a week out so we'll see. I wouldn't put a number on it yet other than to say it won't be as high as ORD.

Hopefully we get a November snowcane or something. Wouldn't doubt it this year.

I'd feel pretty good about it in the metro area if those temps aloft pan out... especially with the recent dryness and more dry days coming. Would probably be more questionable in outlying/rural areas. But I have a bad feeling that ORD is going to max at 98 or 99. Lol

2020, so of course They will be in the Gulf simultaneously on Mon/Tue, so will be interesting to watch the satellite images.

3 dozen Purdue students suspended for violating guidelines https://fox59.com/news/purdue-suspends-36-students-after-party-violating-covid-19-pledge/ If they continue to enforce this, there may be thousands of suspensions in the next few months.

Right at the threshold for putting triple digits in play... IF it verifies.

Per the Notre Dame dashboard, the latest number is 336 confirmed cases out of 2035 tests. I wonder how these college cases are assigned though? Do they automatically count as part of that county's total or is it assigned to the person's home county? I know that people who have been tested while on vacation had it added into the total in their home county, not the vacation county, but obviously with college you are away from home a lot longer.

It has definitely dried out in Porter and LaPorte in the past month. Would think they will be added in on the next update.

Since Chicago's official observation site moved to O'Hare in 1980, there have been 5 instances of high temps of 96 or greater after August 20. 9/1/1984: 96 9/7/1985: 99 9/6/1990: 96 8/27/2013: 96 8/30/2013: 96 fwiw, the last time Chicago hit 100 after August 20 was on 9/7/1960.

Parties, missteps and slow testing: How Notre Dame's COVID-19 plan unraveled SOUTH BEND – In May, the president of the University of Notre Dame, the Rev. John Jenkins, insisted that despite a growing number of coronavirus cases locally and across the country, it was “worth the risk” to bring students back to campus for the fall. “We have availed ourselves of the best medical advice and scientific information available and are assiduously planning a reopening that will make the campus community as safe as possible,” Jenkins wrote in an op-ed piece for the New York Times. “We believe the good of educating students and continuing vital research is very much worth the remaining risk.” One week into the fall semester, the plan unraveled. Students partied. Others didn’t follow safety protocols. Cases immediately spiked. And the university wasn’t ready for the outbreak. Some students reported that calls to the university’s COVID hotline went unanswered. Many complained about waiting days to get tested on campus. Others relayed stories about a lack of preparation at quarantine areas the university had set up. Some professors were outraged they weren’t notified that students in their classes had tested positive. More... https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/education/parties-missteps-and-slow-testing-how-notre-dames-covid-19-plan-unraveled/article_30c4f5a6-e26d-11ea-a12a-af1bffb3d946.html

Good chance of more color in N IL/N IN on next week's update, given expected weather conditions.

LOT afd As the models have continued to slow the front, they have also trended toward the front just sagging into the cwa late Sunday and Sunday night, before washing out and lifting back north of the area on Monday (or Monday night in the GEM). Guidance continues to depict the western CONUS upper ridge developing eastward into early next week, with rising heights into the mid-Mississippi Valley, with persistent southwest low level flow and resulting low level thermal ridge developing into the upper Midwest. Progged H8 temps warm to +18-20C Monday, and to +20C and warmer Tuesday- Wednesday, with H9 temps from the ECMWF and GEM approaching +30C. If this were to verify, it would likely produce surface temps well into the 90s during the first half of next week, possibly upper 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday. ECMWF appears to continue to have the best handle on likely surface dew point temps (lower than likely over-done GFS/GEM values), supporting leaning toward warmer/drier forecast at this distance. Have nudged NBM temps up to low 90s for these days as these heat events are often tricky for everything to come together, but may need to trend higher with some significant heat in store if current model scenario plays out. Ratzer

We may get a better sense of how long any protection from covid reinfection lasts when the New York City schools reopen. So many people in that city had it, and now we are talking 5-6 months ago in many cases. If reinfection within several months is a real thing, we should start hearing some stories.

A governor complaining about media coverage or another political party is not appropriate for this thread. Please refrain from mentioning political figures unless it is truly something substantive/newsworthy.

Go 100... you know you want to. If ever there is going to be a shot to tag the century mark this summer, this would be it. Recent dryness (and little/no rain expected in the next several days) and still not so late in the calendar year where climo is really inhospitable. At this point I am comfortable with predicting mid to upper 90s, but not higher than that. Numerically speaking, there is not that much of a difference, but it's crazy how much harder it is to hit 100.

It will get cold and there will be snow. There. Simple.

Number to beat at ORD for hottest temp of summer is 96. I'd give it roughly 50/50 odds as of right now.

Herd immunity only "works" (I put that in quotes because of the price to pay to achieve it) if reinfection can't happen or is very rare. Like I said a while back, we are going to start to get a better answer on the reinfection potential simply by having the NYC schools reopen since so many in that city have already had it.

12z Euro is still pretty hot.

In the past 30 years, ORD has hit 96+ after August 20 in only 2 years -- September 1990 and August 2013. In case anyone was wondering, ORD maxed at 95 during the late September 2017 heat wave.

Will be interesting to see what happens when the real big boys in IN start school, that being IU Bloomington and Purdue WL. Each one has well over 40,000 students. Notre Dame has like 12,000

Saw that Notre Dame is going to 2 weeks of virtual learning. They didn't even make it 10 days from the first day of school, which was Aug 10.

Obviously there is more to it than 'it's been dry so it's going to be hot', but combining this with some urban enhancement would raise the possibility of some pretty impressive heat in the Chicago area.

Then throw in the other damage and we could perhaps be talking something like 7-10 billion.

Trying to find a preliminary dollar amount for all of this with not much success, but the idea of a derecho possibly being a several billion dollar disaster is pretty crazy to think about.