Hoosier

I know you have access to the specific output for ORD. I was looking at 2m maps and couldn't tell if it was 94 or 95.

I know it's 2020 but come on man

The 1660 are not all "new." Per the state dashboard, almost 1000 of those are older results that were added in to the cumulative total. Today, 16,215 antigen tests and 975 positive cases from July 28 through August 22 are being added to the cumulative reports. Moving forward, antigen cases and testing from the most recent 24-hour period will be included in the daily reports. Tests and cases from prior to July 28 will be added to the cumulative reports once they are verified.

Euro is going to be 2-3 degrees too cool for today.

Growing chance that I pull the trigger on 100 at ORD Wed. One of the things I am waiting to see is to make sure that early Tue convection doesn't pull a surprise and drop significant rain at ORD. Ideally, would like to see stronger model agreement on it, but I think mother nature is tipping her hand that it could be damn close if not make it to 100.

91 at ORD now. 96 or 97 is all but guaranteed. Fwiw, it warmed 7 degrees after this time yesterday.

Would rather be in Indy than Chicago. Even if the center passes south of there, I think it is likely to be close enough to give Indy some impacts. It is a trickier proposition farther north, though not writing it off entirely.

Let's get something straight. It's MACRO, not MARCO.

Here are some stats on how many times each hi temp has occurred in August in Chicago. An oddity is having more 98 than 97 days. The all-time August record of 102 occurred in 1918. 97F: 19 days 98F: 22 days 99F: 11 days 100F: 6 days 101F: 4 days 102F: 1 day

I think it has rained about 5 drops here since the derecho.

It seems hazy/smoky right now. Not sure if it's that or just my imagination.

Looks like it could be decent, especially south of us in the Ohio Valley. I am not a big fan of the progged upper air pattern for getting meaningful remnants up our way. Would like to see some changes with that incoming northern stream trough, otherwise it will be too quick/sharp of a recurve to do us much good.

Anyone else getting concerned about people being underprepared for Laura? Significant model differences on track and intensity, but it is just 3 days away from making landfall somewhere. Combine that with life and news distractions such as covid and the RNC, and it could be setting up to be bad. This would be particularly problematic if it targets a very populated area like Houston/Galveston.

Hey cyclone you wanna take the under at MLI?

I think I am a bit too cool for Monday. Mid 90s (95 or 96) appears to be in play if things go right. Tuesday still has a decent amount of uncertainty with guidance bouncing around on potential impacts from backdoor front/outflow.

I know there have been questions with the number of tests being performed as well as the hospital data, but if the trends are indeed real, then I think we could see deaths start coming down. Unfortunately I believe it will be very gradual and may still average like 800 per day in the "trough"... maybe a bit lower if we're lucky. I'm afraid it will be short lived though because it's going to be tough to keep driving the case numbers down with more things opening up (namely schools), growing pandemic fatigue and fall weather.

With 0.77" precip for the first 22 days, this is the driest August to date for Chicago since 1986.

This is crazy y'all. And that's all I got to say about that.

Will southeast Louisiana have 2 landfalling hurricanes 2 days apart? This is going to be fascinating to watch. I'm not sure we've ever seen anything like this in the same area of the US, at least in modern times. Could eventually have watches/warnings in effect for both systems at the same time in Louisiana.

fwiw, my call would have the hottest max temp at ORD since 2012. Anything 98 or above would do it.

Thursday looks like a classic sneaky hot day to me. I was almost tempted to bump it a degree higher. Coming off of Wed, front still to the north and the possible tropical remnants passing far enough south.

NAM has it substantially farther north. Question is whether to trust the NAM 3 days out.

Looks like the 12z Euro cut back on the heat on Tuesday in northeast IL, especially closer to the lake. That is sort of a new development so we'll see if it's a blip or future runs are warmer.

Suppose I will take a crack at highs for ORD. Who cares about today/tomorrow. Let's get to the good stuff. Mon: 93 Tue: 97 Wed: 99 Thu: 96 Wednesday is the only day I see that has a realistic shot at hitting 100. Tuesday would be about as likely as making a halfcourt shot while blindfolded.

Looks like a possibility of tropical remnants getting into the sub next week. Ohio Valley looks more favored at this time (if it happens).