Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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You can make an argument for the initial shutdowns being more tailored than they were, but hindsight is 20/20. It was a new virus and we were flying blind.
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Tomorrow is 2 months since the last 1" calendar day rainfall at ORD. The last time there was such a streak during meteorological summer was in 2013. Clearly this means historic type winter coming.
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This thing has tended toward the southwest side of guidance during its time, and now it decides not to?
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The hell is that thing doing there? Oh well. Maybe it will warm up again in a couple hours.
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I sort of dismissed the possibility of tonight being that warm, largely due to today not getting into the mid/upper 90s... but yeah, I wouldn't be all that surprised if it doesn't drop below the upper 70s overnight. Warm airmass aloft and UHI and all. As mentioned earlier, I am really bullish on tomorrow night's low.
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It is actually warmer now at ORD than a few hours ago, as the effects of the boundary that passed through start to wear off.
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Hmm. And you guys had pretty much full sun right?
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When it gets to 30 days on Thursday, it will join 2012 as the only other year in the current century with 30+ 90 degree days.
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Clearly I have the ridging holding on a little more than you guys.
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Anyone have a landfall guess for Laura? I'll go 130 mph on Galveston Island, TX. I think there is some potential for it to be stronger at landfall, but that would be bad enough.
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Good thing they relocated the ASOS to the southwest part of the airport awhile back. Would have been awful to interrupt the 90 degree stretch.
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Nonzero chance that it doesn't drop below 80 Wed night/Thu morning at ORD, but I'd go more like 78-79.
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I probably should have checked the vis sat. Wind wise, I think it will still be an hour or more until it turns onshore.
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87 at ORD and winds have flipped southerly. May we rally to the best of our ability.
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I would still go upper 90s at ORD tomorrow. Whether it exceeds yesterday has become more of a question mark. Not that I am expecting it to happen, but I would want to see 89-90 at ORD at 10 am to have a shot at 100.
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Early signs on the HRRR aren't good, and thermal profiles trended a little cooler on the Euro. That is unfortunate, because ORD essentially escaped the storms overnight with only 0.03" so newly wet ground feedback would be a non-issue. On another note, it was still 82 at 4 am before the boundary came through, so it sort of gives you an idea of what the starting point might be on Thursday... possibly upper 70s.
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Update I'm still concerned. Could turn into a panic shitshow in and around Houston especially if intensity gets to where it could.
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Yep. That is the really rarified air.
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It's particularly odd this year since June and July were very warm months for Chicago. But it goes to show that it's been more about persistent warmth than bigtime torches.
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I dug into the 11 occurrences of 100+ degree highs in Chicago in August. 10 out of 11 occurred in the first 12 days of the month, with the one exception being August 24 (1947). All of them happened during stretches of drier than average conditions, or full blown drought in some cases. Wednesday fits the profile in that regard. Progged temps aloft are borderline territory for the century mark even on warmest guidance, but the dry conditions and seeing ORD overachieve with 97 today doesn't hurt.
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The 97 at ORD, which represents the hottest temperature so far this year, is the first time since 2008 that the standalone hottest temp of the year occurred in August or later. The hottest temp of 2008 actually occurred in September.
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Dewpoint has taken a tumble.
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No way in hell that Wed's high will be below 97, imo. If I had to give a probability breakdown, I'd go something like this 97: 15% 98: 30% 99: 30% 100: 20% 101: 5%
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Tomorrow easily has the largest bust potential in the area, with about a 6-8 degree range in potential outcomes at ORD. If the outflow is slower to mix out, then it could struggle to get to 90. If the outflow is very shallow and mixes out more quickly (or if it unexpectedly doesn't materialize), then mid to upper 90s would be achievable.
