Hoosier

1000 J/kg of SBCAPE almost up to I-80 isn't a regular occurrence in January. Forcing isn't that strong, so mode would likely be discrete or semi-discrete. Winter has left us for the time being so we got nothing else.

Originally it was looking very warm tomorrow in almost all of northern IL, but man, trends aren't looking good for that now. The surface low is pretty far west during the day and on a weakening trend with time, so the warm front doesn't get a decisive push northward through the area. This setup screams of a large temperature gradient setting up, reinforced by a cold Lake Michigan. A little tricky to get too specific but there is a plausible scenario where O'Hare doesn't get out of the 40s and it's like 65 here or just south of here. In any case, expect a large temperature gradient in the LOT cwa tomorrow.

SPC kept the northern edge of the day 2 marginal risk around the Ohio River on the new outlook, but I'd agree with the above post about there being a scenario where a risk area would be needed farther north. Whatever manages to fire would be in a decently sheared environment.

I looked a lot like that the night of 12/22 #beardpeopleproblems

But we rally after that.

Overall, this Dec was the coldest/least warm for the sub since Dec 2017.

December finished -1.4 at ORD.

Not anything great, but seeing signs that we'll move into a less hostile pattern for winter lovers as we head toward mid month.

Guidance is hinting at a secondary, almost mesolow type of feature developing in the elongated low structure and moving across IL toward Lake Michigan Monday night-early Tue. It even backs the low level flow a little bit more near it. Unsure if any instability can accompany this though.

Here's a pathetic, beavis-rant inducing type of stat. With 3.2" of snow this month, it is actually the snowiest December at ORD since 2017. It also snaps a record long streak of 4 consecutive Decembers of under 3" December hasn't been a dry month in Chicago... just have not lined up the moisture with the cold very well.

Reposting that bad boy

It was a bit of a struggle to come up with a lot of highlights locally, but here they are. Add yours. - Early February snowstorm dropped a foot in my backyard - May heat/humidity. The warmth was impressive, but the combination of unusually high dewpoints for that time of year made it stand out even more. - June 13 tornado warned supercell. Stood outside my door as it passed by. No tornado locally, but got some gusty RFD winds - June heat spell - Pre Xmas storm/cold stretch. Obviously the snow part could've been much better, but the cold was very significant for any time of year let alone around the solstice. Perfectly timed for Christmas.

Unbelievable turnaround from a week ago at this time. I'd even say that there's a very slight heavy/muggy feeling in the air.

Only a matter of time until Alek is in with the CAD post.

64 at MLI

Did someone say endless torch? My torchThere's only you in my lifeThe only thing that's rightMy first torch You're every breath that I take You're every step I make And I I want to share All my love with you Nothing else will do And your warmth Your warmth, your warmth It tells me how much you care Oh, yes, you will always be My endless torch Ski

It's an op run, but outside of the northern tier, the 00z GFS is absolutely brutal for the entire run.

I'd imagine that few, if any storms in Buffalo history have put together the heavy snow + extreme winds + cold trifecta like this one did.

Serious lol at that one. Sometimes it happens when you don't expect it.

Some palm approved weather early on. We'll see what comes after.

Yeah, I'm not real sure on a Nino happening until later in 2023. I don't see it getting going in time to have an impact on summer. Btw, via ONI method, the current Nina is peaking on the border of weak-moderate.

You would think that the drought has a good chance of getting wiped out in this Nina winter, but if it's still there come spring, then could become a problem. Still have D2 in parts of MI.

I kinda like that.

Bo, you embarrass everyone in the snow department. Except maybe Buffalo this year.

Really need a new avatar. The red hat got short shrifted for December. Should I try it again for January?