Hoosier

And DVN didn't pull the trigger on flash flood warnings?

A whopping 0.19" at ORD through 4 pm. Better luck on Sunday. Maybe.

Actually, pushed to September 21 https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/deal-or-no-deal-threat-of-1st-nyc-teachers-strike-in-45-years-looms-over-school-safety/2595536/?amp

New York City is delaying in person school. With how they have contained the virus around there, if they can't go back, that's a real problem.

The average has dipped a little under 1000 per day over the past week, but it is a painfully slow drop.

This summer is the poster child for the beavis argument of "you can count on summer weather in summer." The consistency of 80+ and 85+ degree highs is impressive.

Not even 0.10-0.20"? Looks like a narrow swath here or a hair south could end up with a decent amount.

Records may be out of reach for the most part as the 4th has some particularly cold ones, but this would still be impressive for areas west of Lake Michigan. And lol at Chicago. What wind there is is progged offshore so this is all UHI on here.

Hey guys, look at that slug of rain/storms in IL! Cue Alek miss south stank.

A cooler than average September almost seems like a foreign concept.

I have nothing. Don't want to steal your thunder.

Out of curiosity I went back and checked the obs from Laura in Lake Charles. It may not have captured the maximum pressure drop rate there since the sensor failed at 132 mph in the eyewall, but they dropped 23 mb in 1 hour. This was 25 mb in about one tenth of the time. Maybe some of the most intense hurricanes have a quicker drop rate than what Josh experienced, but this derecho was something else. We know about the extreme pressure drops that can occur in tornadoes (even within seconds) but I never thought an MCS was capable of something this dramatic.

Interesting. Would've thought that high end hurricanes had a faster drop than that.

Whoa, that is pretty cool. Probably on the order of what you would see in some hurricanes as the eyewall moves in.

Your animation compared to what looks to pan out looks to be an impressive call for 1 month out. I am more impressed with that kind of timing detail because anybody can predict there will be a front somewhere between International Falls and Louisville and have a good chance of being right.

With today being exactly 2 months until Halloween, and coming off of the snow on Halloween 2019, I looked up some October snow stats for Chicago. There have never been back to back Octobers, let alone Halloweens, with measurable snowfall in Chicago. The probability of measurable snow in a given October is relatively low, but you would think the back to back thing would have happened at some point. There have been a couple instances of measurable October snow 2 years apart.

While guidance differs on the specifics of the system later today/tomorrow, a general theme is for pockets/swaths of heavier precip with a favored area somewhere near or south of I-80. We'll see.

Know another person who has it. One of my mother's friends. She is around 70 and the ironic thing is that she's a teacher who recently retired 1 year early due to concern about contracting the virus at school. She likely got it while helping her friends move. Nobody was wearing a mask and one of those people tested positive several days before she did. Last I heard she lost her sense of smell and has a cough. Hopefully it stays at that.

I was going through the 5 min obs and there were a crapload of them at 79. Ugh.

Trying like hell to get to 80 at ORD. 79 so far. Definitely one of those days where being inland helps.

Since I am always on the prowl for 90 in September... Hopefully we can have a slow enough fropa on Thursday to have a shot at one.

Looking around northern IL and surrounding areas, the precip deficits in August alone are running 3-4". So a couple things: 1. In general, it will take some time to put a big dent in the dryness. Maybe some spots that get lucky with convection can come out of it sooner. 2. How bad would it be right now if the months earlier in the year weren't as wet?

If you notice, the states with the higher rate of deaths per 100,000 were the ones that tended to get hit hard early and are doing a lot better now. That was when there were zero known treatment options and there wasn't a second thought about putting somebody on a ventilator. If, say, the New York outbreak had not hit early and instead happened in the summer, I bet the death rate would have been lower there.

Hopefully the mask wearing keeps the cold and flu rate lower. The less confusion we can have between what illness somebody has, the better.