Hoosier
-
Posts
47,183 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Hoosier
-
I don't use the Euro as much when we get into CAM range, but it does convect in WI/IL later.
-
HRRR has consistently been less bullish than the 3 km NAM on westward extent of convective development.
-
Pretty confident in some degree of redevelopment... question is when/where/to what extent. One of those setups where a couple hour difference either way could have an impact on the severity of the outcome. Personally I'd lean toward a more subdued result, because I'm just not confident in an extremely rapid northeastward recovery throughout the slight risk area. Will have to keep a close watch on that though, because the potential is there to recover quickly, especially with south/west extent.
-
0.60" at ORD so far today, which is the biggest calendar day rain since July 9.
-
The models always handle cutoff lows very well.
-
I noticed this was hinted at on the guidance.
-
00z NAM took a jump north with the front... summer wx actually sneaks into my hood on Tue. Not that I'm sold on that outcome.
-
I did know about the -17 at ORD at 2 pm on 1/10/1982. Didn't know that feature was available on that website. Cool stuff.
-
I think it depends on the intensity. Obviously light rates would struggle after 100 degree temps. But if it is snowing at like 1" per hour, or better yet 2-3" per hour, I don't care what the temps were a day or two before. Probably would have quicker settling/compaction than usual though.
-
I was looking at forecast soundings from Iowa early next week and the freezing level is "only" about 2000-2500 feet too high to entertain the idea of snow... even in the daytime. Very impressive airmass.
-
We've certainly had some big cold in recent winters. The Jan 2019 cold shot was extremely impressive, as it even topped the Jan 2014 one around here. I remember the 2 pm temp at ORD was -16F on 1/30/2019. That is obscene and probably ranks in the top 3 coldest temps recorded at that hour of the day in Chicago (can't say that for sure of course).
-
Wx not lacking in excitement in IA if this pans out. Massive derecho and then this a month apart.
-
Totals through the end of next week on the 12z Euro are 7-10" in parts of eastern Iowa.
-
15z RAP clears it out pretty quickly tomorrow and has temps rebounding into the upper 80s as far northeast as Chicago. Probably not the most likely scenario.
-
Is it me or did the GFS creep west for next week? In any case, I have been expecting the best rains to focus to my west. The thing about this setup is that the 1-2"+ area looks to be extremely wide. 1-2" wouldn't wipe out the dryness/drought but would put a nice dent.
-
Not dismissing the negative factors tomorrow, but whatever does develop should carry some severe threat well into the evening. Here is a forecast sounding around Chicago at 3z Mon. Impressive look in the low levels for a damaging wind threat at least.
-
3 km NAM likes redevelopment.
-
Day 2 slight risk
-
Was there a case dump or something in Illinois? 5500 newly reported...
-
Couldn't place that axis much better. And it's over a period of time, which is better than a massive downpour that lasts an hour or two.
-
This would feel particularly nasty in IA/WI/MI coming right off of summer. There's some wind to go with it too.
-
Not often at 3 pm in early September.
-
Sunday looks like a rally cap day. Current scenario is for contamination lingering for a good part of the day around here before a potential rapid warmup in the afternoon. Could see the high temp hold off until 5-6 pm to take advantage of the tail end of the solar input.
-
We are probably going to see the unusual circumstance (for this time of year) of it being warmer by the lake during onshore flow in the daytime next week.
-
Tend to agree. The shot to do it would have been next week if the boundary ended up farther north, but the Euro has backed off on that idea.
