Hoosier

For the love of God, don't attend a family gathering if you have one of the symptoms of the virus, even if you think it's something else. https://www.wfaa.com/mobile/article/news/north-texas-family-shaken-after-18-relatives-test-positive-for-covid-19-following-surprise-birthday-party/287-ea8960ea-4c3c-40c1-b75e-f4437fe6f836

Yeah, you don't really want it running rampant in the community even among younger people, because it becomes that much harder to keep it away from the more vulnerable folks.

Anybody who is asymptomatic can get tested? Like say you're a 20 year old college kid with no symptoms but you're just curious... even that person?

Indiana reported just over 10k test results today. I think that is the highest number of tests in a day, or at least one of the highest. Pretty good percentage on positive tests lately as well... not as good as some of the states in the northeast but consistently in the mid single digits or so. I read that the state is testing every nursing home employee this month (in part to get a better idea on asymptomatic carriers especially in higher risk jobs like that) so there are actually asymptomatic people being tested in addition to people who have symptoms.

Not a big supporter of JB I take it? I kind of wish we had some kind of mask requirement here, but we don't. Just strongly recommended, although some individual stores/businesses are making everyone wear a mask. Even without the requirement in many places, I am still seeing like 80 or 90% wearing them indoors. I wonder what mask compliance is like in other parts of IN. My guess is it's less.

Over 30k new cases reported in the US today... the highest number in about 6-7 weeks. Some of it is due to increased testing, but there is a real ongoing increase in transmission in a number of places especially in southern states.

Daily case numbers have trended down in Illinois, so I would expect the death numbers to improve in the coming weeks.

Good or bad, depending how you look at it. About half of the deaths in my county are from LTC facilities... 113 out of 231.

Interesting read. It does say there is no evidence of the mutation resulting in more serious disease.

Not sure but I tend to think not. The mutations haven't been all that significant up to this point.

The increase seems to be slowing there now, but we'll probably need some more time to be sure.

7 day rolling average of US deaths/day is currently about 750. Models drop the daily average down to about 600-650 before plateauing and then starting to rise again late summer into fall. I do think we are in a better place than when we started in terms of understanding this virus and how to try to treat it. Not rushing to intubate, remdesivir, and now this news out of the UK of a steroid drug having some positive effect, etc. Hopefully we can get the deaths lower than projected.

Tomorrow we go into the deep end of the pool here in Indiana. Bars, movie theaters and other stuff that has been closed can operate at 50%. Limit on crowd size goes up to 250, including events like weddings and parties.

Allen county, IN (where Fort Wayne is) has started putting up bigger daily case numbers than Marion and Lake counties, even though it is #3 in population. Wonder if they recently increased their testing capacity more than the other counties or if there is some other explanation.

Remember when the heat was supposed to help? There are all kinds of variables at work of course. I have read that dry heat may spread it better than a humid airmass.

Hospitalization numbers have been increasing in some states, mainly in the south.

I have noticed quite a bit of mask wearing in the crowds. Not everyone of course but it has to help. But then all the yelling and screaming that goes on expels more droplets.

The magnitude/scope of this does have a different feel than the stuff that has happened from time to time in the past several years, and I think the effects of the pandemic are certainly playing a role. Lots of stores and gas stations are shutting down early around here out of an abundance of caution, and there has been a lot of looting just across the border in IL this afternoon. This isn't just a big city thing. It has moved into the smaller cities and suburbs.

Gotta admit, I didn't know what would be able to knock the virus down in the news cycle since it is still killing about 1000 per day in this country. Interesting times we are living in. And probably more potential than usual for this stuff to persist and get worse since it is paired with the pandemic and the massive economic downturn.

Good point. Didn't think of that at the time. Either way, most of the data from Indiana and elsewhere is pointing to an IFR between 0.5% and 1%... on average. Some areas may be less and others may be higher.

Did you get the swab from hell or something less invasive?

Some guy in Indiana is trolling Michigan with these billboards. https://www.wlns.com/news/national/indiana-billboards-poke-fun-at-michigan-coronavirus-restrictions/amp/

That is true... there were more tests conducted than average, which is why I mentioned the 18% positive test rate from that batch of results. That is not a good percentage... you want it to be in the single digits. But again, it's one day.

Big increase in new cases in my county... I think it might be the highest day total yet but if not it's close. Almost tied Marion county in new cases despite us having half of their population. The positive percentage rate on this new round of results was just under 18%, which is actually a bit higher than the long-term positive percentage rate in my county (which is just under 16%). It is one day and hopefully the numbers/rates are better in the coming days.