Hoosier

3 km NAM likes redevelopment.

Day 2 slight risk

Was there a case dump or something in Illinois? 5500 newly reported...

I would call 0.96" in the past 30 days terrible. Especially since the temps haven't been cool.

Based on precip departure maps, parts of Ashtabula county have been running significantly below average.

There's a time series feature on the drought monitor site where you can look down to cwa level or even county/city level. No idea how long it's been there but I just discovered it. Anyway, you have to go back to 2012 to find the last time that so much of Chicago metro was in D1 or higher. It briefly snuck into far southern parts of the metro in fall 2013. Goes to show how wet it has been overall during the past several years.

The data cutoff is Tuesday at 8 am eastern, and while some areas received decent rain on Tuesday, I'm not sure that single rain would have had any significant impact on this map.

Some issues/questions for Sunday, but wind fields aren't one of them. That part looks decent.

I wonder if Vegas will outsnow Kitchener this winter.

Somebody measured a 25 mb pressure drop in 7 minutes in the derecho. You don't even get that drop rate in the eyewall of most (if not all) hurricanes.

Actually, pushed to September 21 https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/deal-or-no-deal-threat-of-1st-nyc-teachers-strike-in-45-years-looms-over-school-safety/2595536/?amp

New York City is delaying in person school. With how they have contained the virus around there, if they can't go back, that's a real problem.

The average has dipped a little under 1000 per day over the past week, but it is a painfully slow drop.

Out of curiosity I went back and checked the obs from Laura in Lake Charles. It may not have captured the maximum pressure drop rate there since the sensor failed at 132 mph in the eyewall, but they dropped 23 mb in 1 hour. This was 25 mb in about one tenth of the time. Maybe some of the most intense hurricanes have a quicker drop rate than what Josh experienced, but this derecho was something else. We know about the extreme pressure drops that can occur in tornadoes (even within seconds) but I never thought an MCS was capable of something this dramatic.

Interesting. Would've thought that high end hurricanes had a faster drop than that.

Whoa, that is pretty cool. Probably on the order of what you would see in some hurricanes as the eyewall moves in.

With today being exactly 2 months until Halloween, and coming off of the snow on Halloween 2019, I looked up some October snow stats for Chicago. There have never been back to back Octobers, let alone Halloweens, with measurable snowfall in Chicago. The probability of measurable snow in a given October is relatively low, but you would think the back to back thing would have happened at some point. There have been a couple instances of measurable October snow 2 years apart.

Know another person who has it. One of my mother's friends. She is around 70 and the ironic thing is that she's a teacher who recently retired 1 year early due to concern about contracting the virus at school. She likely got it while helping her friends move. Nobody was wearing a mask and one of those people tested positive several days before she did. Last I heard she lost her sense of smell and has a cough. Hopefully it stays at that.

Looking around northern IL and surrounding areas, the precip deficits in August alone are running 3-4". So a couple things: 1. In general, it will take some time to put a big dent in the dryness. Maybe some spots that get lucky with convection can come out of it sooner. 2. How bad would it be right now if the months earlier in the year weren't as wet?

If you notice, the states with the higher rate of deaths per 100,000 were the ones that tended to get hit hard early and are doing a lot better now. That was when there were zero known treatment options and there wasn't a second thought about putting somebody on a ventilator. If, say, the New York outbreak had not hit early and instead happened in the summer, I bet the death rate would have been lower there.

Hopefully the mask wearing keeps the cold and flu rate lower. The less confusion we can have between what illness somebody has, the better.

Do we have herd immunity for the common cold? Asking for a friend.

Although there are a couple days left to go, we can already call this. Officially, this will be the driest July-August in Chicago since 1941. List of driest Jul-Aug: 1894: 1.20" 1919: 2.69" 1897: 3.18" 1893: 3.26" 1941: 3.26" 1916: 3.27" 2020: 3.35" (through 8/28) 1874: 3.73" 1930: 3.80" 1944: 3.82"

If you're interested, I have saved plenty of room on the Drought Express.

I think you're screwed for like 10 years now.