Hoosier

Death toll hit 200,000 on worldometers today. To think nobody knew what the hell covid was a year ago.

Oh cool, y'all are talking about the smoke too. It's something to look at vis satellite and see it stretching from coast to coast. I was just made aware of the link to the HRRR smoke product, and it actually tries to bring it down toward ground level around here tomorrow in association with a cold frontal passage. I know that can happen in some circumstances but when the source of the fires is clear across the continent, that would be impressive. Link: https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/

It has been fun telling various people how the milky white sky is from the fires out west. Usually the initial reaction is disbelief so it will really be mind blowing if the smell can be detected. I thought I smelled something a little while ago but it could've been and probably was a local source.

Thanks

HRRR models the ground level smoke I think, but I don't remember where to find that. Do you have the link?

You have to wonder how some of these codes came to be. Why is smoke FU? A cringeworthy one in the past was when ice pellets was PE, because you would get RAPE in the METAR when it was a mix of rain and ice pellets.

Quite a difference between you and ORD between 9/6-9/13. Surprising because the rains weren't particularly hit or miss type stuff.

So I ran the stats on this of course. Wouldn't you know, the average number of 80+ days in Chicago from 9/16 onward is pretty much exactly 5 days.

Tomorrow looks like 80+ at ORD for the first time since the 7th. It got me thinking how there are probably only a handful of 80+ days left... at best. Summer is slipping away, as it always does.

Hoping no precip occurs here Wed/Thu. If it doesn't, could start to put together a fairly impressive streak of precipless days. It's that and tracking smoke from fires a couple thousand miles away. You have to entertain yourself somehow.

Here she goes Trends may be improving for NOLA, but getting worse for areas farther east. Mobile/Mobile Bay is of growing concern.

The smoke looks extremely extensive today. Appears to be stretching all the way toward the east coast.

Should be fun to watch as this slows down near the coast. "It ticked east." "No it didn't." "Looks like it's wobbling west."

Exciting forecast At least there will be sun .TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows around 50. East winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming southeast after midnight. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 80. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. .THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Then temperatures falling into the mid 60s by evening. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. .FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.

Not sure if it's just me, but can't see image.

No, because ACE isn't at 1 million and we haven't had a long tracker from Mars to the US coast.

Already over 1200 cases at Indiana University Bloomington.

No guarantees but one of the better sneak attack hurricane potentials in the Gulf in a while.

2000-01 is easily the most extreme example of a front loaded winter that I have lived through. ORD had 30.9" in Dec and 8.2" in Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr. The difference was even more extreme at my place as I had more snow in December.

Hating on Ohio right out of the gate huh. Agree though. Generally speaking it should be a better winter (relative to average) north/west, but anybody can get a big one. A good example is the OV snowstorm in March 2008, another Nina winter.

Thanks for the reminder. You're in D1 whether you like it or not. Kidding aside, next week's map should be a better indicator overall since it will have factored in the rains that fell since Tuesday.

Nice west to east gradient across northern IL. 2.27" at ORD for the month.

So we are looking at a La Nina of some strength... possibly a moderate peak. Could be stronger than 2017-18 but not as strong as the one in 2010-11. In what is almost akin to a hell freezing over moment, Weatherbell/JB are going with a mild winter for the east. But we are not exactly the east (for the most part) and while there is a mild risk, I'd rather be in our region. Anyway, post your seasonal forecasts, discussions, etc here.