Hoosier

ORD actually has a slight + departure on temps so far this month, even though it is generally below average across the region. Cue beavis in 3...2...1...

You move north? Euro weeklies do kind of suck, in an absolute sense. Not a whole lot of reliable long range modeling though.

A few weeks ago I mentioned that daily deaths were dropping. You could see it coming when digging into the data. That is the good news. The bad news is that we are still averaging 750+ per day, and right now I am skeptical that the number is going to be able to drop a lot more anytime soon. We better hope our baseline is low going into the holidays, because that is a looming trouble spot for various reasons.

Today will be the 8th day in a row without measurable precip at ORD. That is not a noteworthy run by any means though. It does appear that the precipless streak will extend to about 2 weeks... perhaps beyond... but we'll see. Even a 2 week streak is not that impressive as there have been 170 streaks of 14+ days since records began, so about once per year on average. It starts getting more interesting around 20 days. Super long streaks without precip seem to be harder to come by than they used to be as you have to go back to 2003 for the last 20 day streak, despite that being about a 1 in 4 year occurrence over the period of record.

Certainly lines up anecdotally with summer type weather seeming to stretch later than it used to. Though like you said, this September goes against it.

There was sun and some wind today. I enjoyed the day. It was a good day.

It shall return

Staff forum is the place to make fun of people, not out in the open. (I'm kidding, folks)

Beta boy too scared to just charge onshore and will dance around in the water.

Frost advisory up to my east. Winds are currently off the lake around here, but should swing e/se later on tonight, putting the lake influence more on WI/IL. Not a typical cold spot here by any means but I think we'll get into the upper 30s. Don't think it will get colder than that here but who knows, maybe I'll be surprised.

What are the people who use male/female pronouns to refer to tropical systems going to do with the greek alphabet storms? I better not see Alpha referred to as he and Beta as she.

Obviously long way out and might not happen but there have been occasional hints on guidance that what will eventually become tropical system Beta could get sucked into the region around next weekend. Since it looks to be a TX/LA storm, that automatically increases the odds for eventual movement into the region, but still need a favorable enough synoptic pattern in place at that time to prevent too sharp of a recurve.

My county passed 10,000 cases the other day. The question is what has the undercount been? Obviously we are not missing as many cases as we were back in March, but we are still missing cases with the amount of asymptomatic carriers and some people with milder symptoms who may not bother getting tested/are attributing it to something else. If the actual number of cases is 10x higher, then it would mean that 20% of my county has had it.

Smokeless sky is a nice change of pace.

Here is Wisconsin. Cases are up but hospitalizations have also started to increase. Not hugely on the latter but still.

Wisconsin appears to be rising. It looks like a real increase in spread too, not just more testing.

0.04" at Indianapolis so far this month. Next 7 days (at least) look dry and then we'll see what happens after that. 3 of the 10 driest Septembers at IND have happened in the past decade... 2010, 2017, 2019.

New map is out. More improvement in the western sub. D0 expanded in downstate IL/IN, where it has recently turned very dry. Despite the recent system that brought good rains to some areas, there are still significant 30-60 day deficits.

Any idea why they were lagging so much this morning into early afternoon? At first I was wondering if there was some localized pocket of clouds but visible satellite didn't have much other than some smoke.

ORD rallying... jumped to 82 on the 5 minute obs.

Somebody gonna get a freeze?

lol

Even stranger, it is 4 degrees warmer at PWK.

Temp struggling a bit at ORD. May be in danger of not making it to 80 (or if it does, it would be a squeaker). Not really sure what the problem is. I mean, smoke is a factor you have to consider as of late but yesterday managed to get to 79. And the starting point this morning was warmer than yesterday.

Sally putting on a last minute rally. A hurricane crawling at 2 mph toward the coast and strengthening just about up to landfall sounds right for this year.