Hoosier

Would not at all be surprised if things have to be tightened up again eventually. I think we can avoid the amount of lockdowns that we had in the winter/spring. As evidenced by what happened in the United States and some other countries over the summer, the seasonality component is not as pronounced as the flu, but it still appears to be a factor. With more cases comes a higher likelihood of somebody walking into a restaurant or bar or some other place where masking is difficult, thus causing more spread.

The rains sort of diminished with eastward extent. Generally only a tenth or two around here.

ORD got 79'd

This is fascinating. Sometimes it almost seems like it has a mind of its own https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/23/houston-coronavirus-mutations/?arc404=true

Getting some sun. Time to put together a half assed rally.

This shouldn't be that difficult. Typing 1 divided by 10 into a calculator results in 0.1 We all know that 1 out of 10 is 10 percent. To convert 0.1 to 10 percent, you move the decimal point 2 places to the right.

Last year you could see the pattern setting up to favor an usually far south early snow, which actually ended up happening at the end of October. This would take it to the next level though.

Quite the curveball. Looked like slam dunk low-mid 80s.

ORD finally stopped the 79 madness today.

So obviously there has been a lot of attention on older people and those with comorbidities being at greater risk of serious illness, but what about an individual's risk profile changing throughout the year? I haven't heard much about that. In particular, for people living in northern climates, is your risk of a more significant case elevated in the colder months when you are more likely to have lower vitamin D levels? After all, D is one thing that is thought to play a key role in immune health.

Pretty big number out of IL today, though it can partially be attributed to testing numbers creeping up. Will have to keep an eye on hospitalizations... there was a pretty big jump in those yesterday but need to see upcoming days to ascertain any trend.

Not a tree expert by any means, but there is a point where too much dryness starts to stress the trees. We are still in D0/D1 in this area, which isn't a major concern, but it could become a factor if it keeps up. Don't have the type of color change here yet that you are describing, but I don't think that is out of the ordinary as I believe your area runs just a hair ahead of mine.

If ever there's a year for the color change to not run behind schedule (running behind has seemingly become more common lately), this is it. The only possible mitigating factor that I can imagine here locally would be if the dryness continues, which could dull it and make it go toward more of the brown look, but it would have to continue to be dry in the coming weeks.

Faint smell of smoke outside. The milky white sky is prominent but not sure if it's coming from that.

That is the 4th time that Chicago has had 3 consecutive highs of 79. The other occurrences were in 1878, 1942 and 2007. It has never happened 4 days in a row. Tomorrow would have to underachieve a bit to do it.

Some positive pieces of info too, like certain populations potentially having longer lasting antibodies (and hopefully immunity). Of course I'm not sure how you figure out who is going to have longer immunity.

Good read on covid-19 reinfections and vaccines https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-covid-19-reinfection-means-for-vaccines/

This is an informative read. Some good and bad news on reinfections and vaccines with covid. The takeaway is that we are probably going to be battling this virus for a long time even after the vaccines come out. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-covid-19-reinfection-means-for-vaccines/

Exactly. Pretty easy call all things considered.

Not like hitting 90 but 85 should be in play at ORD on Saturday. I'm gonna pull a Spartman and say that whatever high temp is reached on Saturday will be the warmest temp for the rest of this year.

There is a collection of states in the West and the Plains that is on the rise. It's not every state in that area of the country though, which could be because if your state has already been hit very hard, you probably have more restrictions in place with more of the population taking it seriously. I remember reading that exposure to smoke from the wildfires could make a person more susceptible to the virus. I assume that meant a higher likelihood of having a more serious case and not a higher likelihood of contracting the virus itself, but I'm not sure. Those states have had a higher frequency of smoke making it to ground level. Another possibility could be the reopening of K-12 and colleges. It is easier to pick out the spikes in smaller population states since the numbers are not high in an absolute sense. A state that goes from 100 cases one day to 200 cases another day is more noticeable than a state that goes from 1200 to 1300.

Here are test numbers, cases and hospitalizations for Indiana courtesy of covid tracking. Other than a recent spike, which I believe was due to a backlog, daily testing numbers have been either side of 10,000. Case numbers have been up and down but sort of hanging in a zone. Hospitalizations have trended down and are at a similar level as mid July. I guess I'd like to know the logic that went into deciding to move to a full reopening. If the bars/restaurants couldn't be fully open in July, then why now? Testing, cases, and hospitalizations are pretty much the same now as they were in most of July.

Indiana is "fully" reopening this weekend. I put that in quotes because I am not sure yet of the scope and if it also means no limits on size of gatherings. I heard there may still be some kind of limit on gathering size. Apparently bars/restaurants/clubs will be able to operate at full capacity as long as social distancing is maintained. This raises an obvious question of how distancing can be maintained if a place is at full capacity. I don't want to get too far into politics, but I really hope this is a science based decision and that there are not outside factors at play. Our governor is up for reelection and a poll that came out about 2 weeks ago showed the libertarian candidate pulling a large number of votes away to the point where the governor's lead is barely outside the margin of error. I assume it is due to people being upset about the restrictions/mask orders that have been in place. So far the governor has resisted the calls to end the mask order. Having the bars/restaurants at 50-75% has been working decently well, and having those go to 100% will likely result in increased cases over time.

I'm sure there is a lot that goes into the model, and it's probably trying to account for cold season influence. I'm wondering if it is so detailed as to factor in more schools eventually reopening for in person learning. I have not been able to find an answer as to how many kids are doing all virtual learning right now but it must be a fairly large number because a number of the larger districts in the country are not having any in person learning yet.

Things would have to spiral pretty bad to get to 400k that fast.