Hoosier

Today is the 54th consecutive day with less than 0.10" at IND. Looks like some rain tomorrow, but not much. Could get close to that 0.10" but if I had to bet on it, I think the streak will survive. Would be more confident though if the chance of thunder were nil, but there is a small possibility of a thunderstorm.

I know that kids were being tested before being allowed on campuses in August, but I wonder if there is any plan to test them right before they go home for the holidays. Or if the attitude will be "who cares, not our problem anymore"

My non-medical professional parsing of his doctor's letter is that he still has detectable virus in his system, but is not a transmission risk due to the level and time elapsed since onset of symptoms. But who knows.

In an interview yesterday, Holcomb said he is leaving it up to local officials to impose tougher measures. Holcomb prefers more urging of mask wearing, supporting local restrictions in hot spots over moving back from Stage 5 SOUTH BEND — Despite worsening coronavirus numbers in Indiana’s northern and southwestern border counties, which are helping to drive statewide numbers in the wrong direction, Gov. Eric Holcomb isn’t considering reinstating restrictions he lifted two weeks ago, he said during a visit here Friday. While noting he doesn’t make long-term predictions “based on a virus that is uber-infectious and easy to spread,” for now he’ll continue urging Hoosiers to wear masks and hope they comply. https://www.southbendtribune.com/coronavirus/holcomb-prefers-more-urging-of-mask-wearing-supporting-local-restrictions-in-hot-spots-over-moving/article_1efc09f2-0a6a-11eb-8993-539d3ee087b3.amp.html

Regarding Europe https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-pandemics-italy-madrid-eastern-europe-159a68a460337948d25281c153994c70

The China one was really extreme... they were forcibly removing people and taking them to quarantine locations among other things. The Italy one was probably about as far as a Western country could go. If more people would mask up and modify their behavior, I think we'd be able to get this down to something close to what we have come to tolerate with flu season (which is still tens of thousands of deaths in a 6 month period).

Waah waah I don't want to wear a mask Waah waah I don't want to cut out my higher risk behaviors Look no further as to why we are in the situation we are in.

Masks are good but aren't 100% protective. It's not license to gather in packed crowds. Besides that, a significant amount of the US population still doesn't wear one (varies by state). And then besides that, there are places where you can't mask for the entire duration of time, like at bars and restaurants. If somebody catches the virus, there is a good chance they are passing it to someone else in the house.

Sobering to think of where we may be heading. Average of 500-600 deaths per day was our low point in the US this summer, which is about what you would have on a bad flu day in a bad flu season in the winter. Obviously this will be our first full winter of being able to track covid-19 in the US, so there is a bit of an unknown as far as how bad the numbers could get.

Ventilators are still used on some covid patients, but it is more of a last resort thing than it was early on. The lab produced antibody treatments seem promising, but needs more trials. Even if it's fast tracked and production is quickly ramped up, the downside is that it still requires a hospital setting for administration. I really hope our hospitals will be able to handle what's coming this winter.

^Talk about a wintry look Oct 20 and beyond.

If we broke the record on a weekend, no reason to think it won't be broken again (possibly multiple times) next week. Probably will be of little interest to people outside of the state, but here's an article on increasing covid spread, pandemic fatigue, etc in rural counties in western IN. Just sort of interesting to read about stuff on a more micro level. https://amp.jconline.com/amp/5930343002

Today broke yesterday's record high number of cases in Indiana. I was thinking the number would be a little lower than yesterday since it's Saturday, but that's not the case.

First off, hope you're feeling better. Do you have a link for that? Would like to read more. It seems like it would be challenging to capture reinfections since it was so hard to get a test back in the winter/early spring. Lots of people would've had it back then without an official diagnosis.

My sister is attending a wedding tomorrow and then plans to go bar hopping. The wedding is questionable enough, but then going to multiple bars. Might as well go hospital hopping and visit some covid patients.

Made it to 82 at ORD, which was actually only 4 degrees shy of the daily record.

No doubt that is a factor, but there is increasing spread in some rural counties without a college/university, at least in Indiana. A relative of mine attends Indiana University, and last I heard he is only in the classroom 1 day per week with the rest being virtual. Obviously it's going to vary student by student and college by college though.

Louisiana is trying to do its best Florida 2004 impersonation.

78 at ORD, so 80+ is in the bag.

That big storms can happen in any ENSO state?

I remember questioning it at the time. Bars/restaurants went to 100% on September 26, and it's not like we had been in a sustained decline prior to that. It was oscillating. Today's number of over 1800 is not on here yet

The full opening of bars/restaurants was just a couple weeks ago, so there's a correlation. Could be seasonal influence too. I think there are political considerations with the governor being up for reelection this November, so I'm not sure what the timing will be. If I'm only grading against other Republican governors, I think Holcomb has done better than average with this most of the way. But, the data didn't really support going to 100% opening on those higher risk places.

Today's reported case number in Indiana is the highest since the pandemic began. Positivity rates have also been creeping up and up, and are now closing in on 9% on new individuals (so excluding people getting tested multiple times) over the past week. This situation is probably not sustainable in the long run and I suspect places like bars/restaurants may ultimately need to return to some level of restriction.

LOT calling for 81 at ORD tomorrow. Assuming it happens, there's a very good chance it will be the last 80 degree day.

The way our upcoming holidays fall on the calendar is bad timing for something like this. They are only spaced about 4 weeks apart (for the most part), so you don't really get to observe and digest the full impact of one before the next one is already coming. Would like to be wrong but imo, things will get worse with each successive holiday. Would expect a bump after halloween, then a more significant increase after thanksgiving. The thanksgiving to mid-December period or so is interesting because so many college kids will be returning home, potentially bringing the virus with them. Then you get to late December and New Year's.