Hoosier

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced a second national lockdown for England to prevent a "medical and moral disaster" for the NHS. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54763956

I half expect to come in here one day and see a post about gold falling out of the sky in the magical land of South Carolina.

~7900 new cases in Illinois today, which broke the previous daily record and it's a Saturday.

As has been posted, places in Illinois are defying the orders anyway. The defiance doesn't seem to be isolated either. Illinois has a list of outbreaks that has been kept secret up until now. They traced a lot of cases back to gatherings at people's houses and what not. Not good when you consider what is coming up on the calendar. https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/illinois-covid-19-outbreak-list-is-so-secret-even-local-officials-arent-told-of-cases/2361878/?amp

This would be cool. I'd like it farther west though.

7900 new cases in Illinois.

Europe did something right in the summer. Look at what their case rates were compared to ours back then. No doubt they are seeing explosive growth now though, perhaps because they got complacent.

Set a new daily case record in my county with 379. Continue to have similar case numbers to Indianapolis/Marion county despite having half the population.

Got down into the low-mid 20s around here.

Speaking of Regeneron, they are not enrolling very sick people Regeneron to stop enrolling very sick COVID-19 patients in antibody trial By Ankur Banerjee (Reuters) - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals said on Friday it would stop enrolling patients receiving advanced COVID-19 care in a trial testing its experimental antibody treatment in hospitalized patients, based on the recommendation of an independent safety board. The recommendation was based on a potential safety signal and an unfavorable risk-benefit profile at this time, the company said. Rival Eli Lilly & Co stopped enrolling such patients based on a similar suggestion earlier this week. "It appears a trend is emerging in the class, and it may be that neutralizing antibodies simply do not work and/or are not safe in this (hospitalized) population," JP Morgan analyst Cory Kasimov said in a note. Both treatments belong to a class of drugs known as monoclonal antibodies. Regeneron's drug, which was administered to U.S. President Donald Trump before he was hospitalized, was credited by him for his recovery from COVID-19. Regeneron continues to enroll other types of patients for trials and its enrollment in non-hospitalized patients as well as hospitalized patients requiring either no or a low level of oxygen has been backed by the independent data monitoring committee. https://news.yahoo.com/regeneron-stop-enrolling-very-sick-151542504.html

The growth we are on isn't sustainable. Something's gotta give at some point, whether it's from the governor or local/county officials. Doesn't mean a large scale shutdown but at least some tinkering.

The Europe rise has been insane. They had more of a break in summer than the US though.

What makes you say that? Gotta remember we haven't been putting up the really big (say 75,000+) case numbers for that long. If we are still getting 800-1000 deaths/day a couple weeks from now then yeah that will be pretty suspicious.

My cousin has a high up position at one of the hospitals here in northwest IN and I am hearing some concerning stuff. It's manageable for now but they are having to make some adjustments in resources and the real problem is if it keeps growing quickly.

97k cases on Covid Tracking. Worldometers tends to run a bit higher and probably will eclipse 100k on there. Where will we be a month from now on the higher reporting days ? 125k cases? 150k?

Per Covid Tracking, there are over 9000 people in the ICU (out of about 47,000 covid hospitalizations) and almost 2500 currently on a ventilator. Knowledge/treatments are better now than in spring, but the numbers are growing at a rate that won't prevent deaths from rising. Daily deaths are in fact already rising.

More cases are being caught, but the virus is actually spreading more as well. Nationwide hospitalizations are up by 50% since the beginning of the month. The current hospitalizations are at about 3/4 of what they were in the summer peak, but we will fly past that mark at the rate we are going.

Illinois restaurants visited by police for defying state’s order against in-door dining NEW ATHENS, Ill. – Illinois bars and restaurants who are defying Governor J.B. Pritzker’s Wednesday order of no indoor dining are getting visits from police. A bar owner in New Athens says she’s had enough and is rebelling against the COVID restrictions. New Athens, Illinois in southern St. Clair County is a town of about 2,000 people who live for their independence and freedom; but then came the COVID restrictions. “You couldn’t go to bars, you can’t dance, you can’t congregate. First it was 10 people, then it was 50, then it was back to 10. Nobody really knows what to do,” said Karla Blades, owner of the Nail Bar. https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/illinois-restaurants-visited-by-police-for-defying-states-order-against-in-door-dining/

Yeah looks pretty nice. Can we get a legit severe setup at some point? Is that too much to ask?

When you game it out, it seems like it will be hard to avoid hitting that number in 2021. Obviously have some uncertainty on precisely how bad it will get this winter and if some places will have to go back into shutdowns to reduce the spread, but let's say the IHME projection of 400k by February is reasonably accurate. We aren't even through winter at that point. Vaccines should be out by then but still somewhat limited availability, less than perfect efficacy, and a healthy chunk of the public is skeptical and won't get one anyway. Situation improves late spring/early summer and then the question is whether we can avoid a repeat of what happened in the South in summer. Unfortunately I think a sort of best case scenario would be if we can delay hitting 500k until late next year, but it certainly could happen well before then.

Case of covid-19 and flu co-infection in California: https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/solano-county-confirms-first-flu-and-covid-19-co-infection/

Nice link showing various scenarios. Thanks.

I've been wondering about the impact that voting could have on spreading the virus. That is a bit of a tricky thing to figure out though. I early voted and was in and out. Everyone I saw was wearing a mask. The holiday gatherings are sort of like being in a restaurant or bar in that you have to take your mask off at some point. I question whether many people would wear a mask to their holiday gatherings to begin with.

IHME model updated. Even with "universal" mask use (which is considered 95%), it has between 1000-1300 deaths per day from November through January. And we are nowhere near 95% on a nationwide level. This is not to bash mask use whatsoever. It just shows what we're up against.