Hoosier

Though far from the norm, stories like this are scary. 38 year old guy died at home 3 days after being diagnosed. Iowa teacher dies 3 days after testing positive for COVID-19 BELMOND, Iowa — The Belmond-Klemme Community School District is mourning the loss of a beloved teacher. Jason Englert's family said he tested positive for coronavirus three days before he died. The 38-year-old teacher was found dead inside his home on Nov. 8. https://www.kcci.com/amp/article/iowa-teacher-dies-3-days-after-testing-positive-for-covid-19/34648767

I crunched the hospitalization numbers, and there has been a >25% increase in Indiana in just the past 5 days. Similar story in Illinois.

So Illinois issued a stay at home "recommendation." Is there any reason to think it won't fall on deaf ears? IDPH Issues New Guidance Urging Residents to Stay Home and Leave Only for ‘Essential Activities' The guidelines, which come just before the the Thanksgiving holiday, recommend that for the next three weeks, residents "stay home as much as possible, leaving only for necessary and essential activities" https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/idph-issues-new-guidance-urging-residents-to-stay-home-and-leave-only-for-essential-activities/2367781/

Ended up with over 100 severe reports yesterday.

Nobody wants to be the one to announce that right before Thanksgiving. My guess as to how it goes down is that we wait to see the impact of Thanksgiving, things continue to get worse, some places come out with some sort of modified lockdown/stay at home in December, and a lot of people don't follow it anyway.

Holcomb announced new limits on crowd sizes for most of Indiana. Local officials will have the say on what to do with places like bars and restaurants. This is a relatively minor move in the grand scheme of things, so I'm skeptical about it helping to any great degree, but we'll see. https://fox59.com/news/gov-holcomb-state-officials-to-deliver-weekly-coronavirus-briefing/

It is arguable how much benefit there will be from 1 week of warm weather. I'm honestly not counting on anything but it would be nice.

Probably only a matter of time until they have to pull back on electives, but you can only put on so many band aids. Really need to slow down the growth somehow.

CORONAVIRUS SURGE SENDS MANY HOOSIER HOSPITALS 'OVER 100 PERCENT OCCUPANCY' “Many hospitals are reporting staff shortages as the pandemic takes its toll. Hoosier nurses, doctors and other front-line hospital staff have been working non-stop since the early spring,” Tabor said in a statement Tuesday. In recent weeks, new cases have reached the highest level to date, and hospitalizations have increased by 143% since Oct. 1, according to Tabor. Dr. Christopher Mansfield, Chief of Adult In-Patient Medicine at IU-Health’s West Region, said hospitals in Lafayette, Frankfort and Monticello were “over 100 percent.” “When I mean 100 percent occupancy, that literally means we are occupying every adult bed in our facility,” said Mansfield. “We are populating areas now, like our ambulance bay, which we've transitioned into an in-patient holding area while they're waiting to get a physical bed in the upstairs part of IU Arnett Hospital.” Mansfield said administrators were talking Tuesday about whether to scale back elective procedures to allow for more room and more staff to help. “We can't take too much more from a surge standpoint. Otherwise, we (may) not have physical space, so we're trying to utilize what we've got in the smartest way most efficiently,” he said. https://www.wthr.com/amp/article/news/local/coronavirus-surge-sends-many-hoosier-hospitals-over-100-percent-occupancy/531-6e5b11f3-07af-4356-8395-d1be34a3ee9a

You are giving ammo to the anti-maskers But maybe it helped you and your coworkers take in a lower viral dose vs not wearing one. Glad you are on the mend.

I think we are in pretty deep trouble with almost a perfect storm of factors coming together. Rapid growth now and a series of upcoming holidays when people will be tempted to gather, even if it's in smaller numbers than usual.

I am sure we will set some sort of longevity warmth streak before too long. Seems like it's becoming more common.

62 mph gust at Gary. I estimate about 50 mph here.

Well, already around 130k today. Growing possibility we will see 200k before this month is over.

That'll work

One thing about NYC... they don't play around. A 2-3% positivity rate anywhere else would be a snoozer. Heck, there are many places across the country right now with a 10% or greater positivity rate that have few or no restrictions.

Utah now has a statewide mask mandate. There are the enforcement issues of course but at least a higher percentage of Utahns (always wanted to type that word lol) should be wearing them.

I think the line will hang on in respectable fashion this far east. As mentioned, we will lose some instability, but ample cloudcover and fairly well mixed low levels should keep the temperature drop rather modest in the few hours after sunset.

Most or all of the colleges/universities in Indiana are not requiring "exit testing" for covid prior to students returning home for Thanksgiving. Hopefully nobody inadvertently kills a parent or grandparent.

Illinois had 6700 cases last Tuesday.

Starting to get April/early May type death numbers now in IN. 67 reported today (63 confirmed, 4 probable). In an ominous sign, case numbers are up about 70% just from last Tuesday.

Eli Lilly antibody treatment got an EUA. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-authorizes-eli-lilly-s-covid-19-antibody-treatment-emergency-n1247201 Supply may be an issue given the case growth we are experiencing, but it is a good piece of news prior to the vaccine.

Interesting to compare the hospitalizations and deaths over time. Back in spring, we were getting 2k plus death days. The summer surge, despite roughly the same number of hospitalizations at peak, resulted in significantly less deaths. If you just view it as deaths per hospitalized patients (not saying this is perfect), it appears like we are doing worse than summer but better than spring. This makes sense in a way, as the virus has penetrated all over the country which means it has gotten into areas that may not be as well equipped. Also, a lot was learned between spring and summer, but I'm not sure how much more has been learned from summer to fall.

Knocking on the door of 60k hospitalizations nationwide, which is about what the peaks were in the spring and summer.

For Fort Wayne, the highest number of 70+ degree days in November is 8 (1964)