Hoosier

It's an ugly percentage if you take new positive cases/new individuals tested (20% on a 7 day average), but they have been separating it out for a while. I'm not sure which one is better to use. Maybe depends on how you want to spin it.

Looks like more large crowds in DC and other places.

Well over 8000 today in IN, though yesterday was a slight down day compared to Thursday so I guess it sort of evens out.

LOT confirmed 2 EF-0 tornadoes from Tuesday, 1 in DeKalb county and 1 in Kane county.

This has not been the case all year... but right now, covid is the #1 cause of death in Indiana, with an average of 45 deaths per day and rising. Heart disease kills about 40 per day and cancer kills 37 per day.

Illinois is getting out of control. Over 15,000 cases there today, hospitals filling up and it sounds like a stay at home order may be on the horizon, which of course won't be greatly followed with Thanksgiving coming in just 2 weeks.

I just don't know how you enforce it, especially getting into holiday season. Unless the hope is that the mere announcement would at least make a portion of people reconsider their behavior.

Pritzker sure made it sound like a statewide stay at home order is on the horizon. Would be interesting to be a fly on the wall for those conversations.

So what I'm wondering is how many higher risk people who have generally been careful and staying home a lot will decide to go out for Thanksgiving. Maybe they are tired of being so careful and will be yearning for a day of normalcy with family. For many there will be no harm done, but for others, all it would take is that one time of letting their guard down.

I think we'd still be on the increase if halloween never happened, but it is reasonable to think that people exposed on halloween are getting into the numbers now. How many, well, who knows.

Flashbacks to the Nov 2015 storm.

https://scitechdaily.com/common-coronavirus-mutation-may-actually-make-covid-19-more-susceptible-to-a-vaccine/

I called out the election celebrations as they were happening last Saturday. They were not productive, and people could've chosen to celebrate at home. Yes, it was nice that most people appeared to be wearing masks, but there were still large crowds of people that were more or less staying in the same spot (not marching). That being said, it is simply playing political games to blame the current increase on those celebrations. The incubation period of the virus is 2 days at minimum, and many times it's more like 4 or 5 days if not longer. By the time someone gets tested and gets the result, you are frequently talking 10-14 days after exposure (maybe even longer). We will continue to see increasing cases, and likely some stemming from the celebrations, but as has been mentioned, we are in continued exponential growth anyhow.

Basically back to April level death numbers. Statistically you have a better chance of making it out of the hospital now compared to back then, but we have record hospitalization numbers countering that.

That is the one day case record for any state in the United States, narrowly beating out Florida from this past summer.

Was looking through the IHME stuff in more detail. It projects US hospitalizations peaking at just under 130k, which is about twice where we currently are. Current hospitalizations are actually running ahead of progged though (67k vs 60k). Again though, it is factoring in decreased mobility over time. Basically, we are really screwed if we don't start taking more steps to blunt the curve.

Thanks Alek.

The IHME model updated, and has almost 440k deaths by March 1. Notably, that factors in a big drop in mobility starting very soon, which may not actually occur or could at least be interrupted by holiday travel, etc., which suggests a worse outcome is plausible.

Given the rate of growth, we may be up near 200k late next week. I do wonder if the test turnaround time will start to suffer because of this onslaught. Perhaps it already is in some areas?

Fixed your post

fyp

Could've waited for the new IHME update, which could be any time now. It's like not waiting for the Euro.

There are areas of the state that actually have worse spread than them on a per capita basis. But I guess you have to be a little more careful in more populated areas since the potential ceiling on growth is so high. Here are the changes for Indianapolis. Besides this, schools are also going virtual. The following changes go into effect Monday, Nov. 16: Indoor capacity will be reduced to 25 percent for bars and entertainment venues, although outdoor capacity will continue to be allowed up to 100 percent. Restaurant capacity will remain at 50 percent indoors with outdoor capacity at 100 percent. Self-service buffets and salad bars are banned. Karaoke is banned. Maximum party size at tables, restaurants and bars is reduced to six people. The midnight closure requirement that previously applied to bars, restaurants and clubs will now be extended to all non-essential hospitality and entertainment businesses, including live entertainment venues. Special or seasonal events, such as fairs, concerts, movie screenings, weddings, sporting events, are now limited to 25 percent of the venue's capacity. They may include more than 50 people only if the event has an approved safety plan from the Marion County Public Health Department. This is a reduction from the current 250 person limit. Religious centers are limited to 75 percent capacity. Cultural venues, music venues, museums, tourism sites and other non-essential tourism venues are reduced to 25 percent capacity. Gyms and fitness centers, as well as private clubs and fraternal organizations, are reduced to 25 percent indoor capacity. Marion County will now require a negative COVID-19 test within 72 hours for a visit to any long-term care facility. https://www.wthr.com/amp/article/news/health/indiana-coronavirus-updates-for-thursday-november-12-2020/531-c778ffae-5ee5-483c-88c2-5d4562225cbe

Makes you wonder if an outdoor gathering in fall has higher risk than the same outdoor gathering in summer, simply due to less UV. Obviously much better than having one indoors though.