Hoosier

IHME updated. 470k deaths by March 1. Hospitalizations peak at over 160k. This projection is assuming decreased mobility/increased restrictions with time.

Heading into $hit hitting the fan territory with covid. 3 weeks ago we were just starting to approach 100k cases per day, and today we had about 2000 deaths reported. Now it's 150-200k cases per day. What is that going to look like in the death toll a few weeks from now?

3 weeks ago, we were just starting to approach 100k cases in a day. Now we are seeing 150-200k per day and already getting about 2k deaths on the higher reporting days. Truly frightening to think about where things are heading as some of these newer cases eventually become hospitalized and die. I really don't see how we avoid days with a 9/11 type death toll or worse, even if transmission rapidly slows down soon (and it likely won't).

Looks like it will surpass 2000 deaths on worldometers. I don't think it will make it to 200k cases today, but it could happen tomorrow.

Hmm. May have to dig into this later.

What are you supposed to do if you're an essential worker who has preexisting conditions?

Hate when it transpires like that, but can't deny there are concerning signs.

Almost at the crossover point now of having more covid ICU than non-covid ICU. That has not occurred at any point in the pandemic in Indiana.

That's why it will be important to montior how many tests are performed each day and not just focusing on case numbers. Also important to monitor hospitalization numbers of course, but I wonder if even that could start to become a bit of an unreliable metric in areas that are out of space... like would borderline hospital cases start getting turned away?

Go to bed dude

First off, there's way too much politics/election talk in here. Really not supposed to be discussing that, whether or not it's civil. Regarding covid, there's a real, growing problem in the hospitals right now just about everywhere outside of the coastal states. You see it in the news stories and I hear it from my cousin here in Indiana who has a high ranking position at an area hospital. Because of the typical lag time between a confirmed case and needing to go to the hospital, a lot of areas are in trouble even if the spread stopped right now (which it won't, of course).

A neighbor, who used to live across the street from my dad when he was growing up, died from covid. Didn't really know her and only met her one time -- when she came to my dad's funeral several years ago. Still, it's the first person taken by this virus that is not a completely unknown name to me.

Nationally we are heading for the most deaths in a day since the first week or two of May. And to think of how much worse it will get before it gets better.

I read the summaries or even occasionally watch the weekly covid briefings by the governor and health officials, and I gotta say the tone of today's briefing sounded like the ones back in spring. The health commissioner used the words exponential growth. There's a lot of concern about hospitals being able to handle the increasing numbers and increasing fatigue and illnesses among hospital workers. Testing is also becoming an issue with supply and long wait times, and in some areas you can now only get tested if you have symptoms. They also encouraged students returning home from college to stay home as much as possible and wear a mask inside, even at home.

You talking about the warm weather earlier this month? That is an interesting point and something that was brought up in this thread back then. This would be about the time when you would expect to see some stabilization or at least a slowdown in case growth... if that is playing a role. The other Midwest states are not slowing down to the extent that Illinois has in the last few days though, and it's not like Illinois had a monopoly on the warm days. So there may be multiple factors at work.

Going to take a magic act to avoid hitting 200k, imo. Even if the stabilization places like IL is real, others will probably start picking up the slack so to speak. I am keeping an eye on testing numbers though. We still have not had 2 million tests in a day and have had very few days over 1.5. As long as that is the case, then the documented case numbers will have some sort of cap.

Hopefully people don't take it as "yay, I'll have my big Thanksgiving gathering now"

(dry) ice ice baby. But yes, it is a challenge, probably in more rural areas especially.

More counties in the red in Indiana, which signifies worst level of spread. Also hospitalizations have surpassed 3000.

One thing mentioned in there is the breakdown of severe covid-19 illnesses, which was something I was wondering. You would think that if you receive the vaccine and still develop covid-19, it would be milder, but it's not necessarily clear yet based on that data. In the placebo group, 9/162 developed severe covid-19 (5.6%) while the vaccinated group was 1/8 (12.5%). The vaccine appears to be great at reducing the raw numbers/burden of disease, but I guess we need more time to determine whether it makes a person less likely to become severely ill should they contract covid-19.

Thursday is looking nice.

Has anyone been able to find any information about how much protection may occur after just the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine?

Has to go through FDA. I'm not sure how long the process takes but it is only 2 weeks until December, so it may be a stretch.

IN governor under quarantine after several security members tested positive. https://www.wthr.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/gov-eric-holcomb-and-first-lady-under-quarantine/531-11932a36-1537-4a2f-91ee-9924b76cd6ee

More mitigation measures going into effect in Illinois later this week.