Hoosier

About 6200 cases in IN, which is down a bit from last Sunday.

Saw a 3.5" report from IWX. We'll see if anything higher comes in.

Think of it this way. We are confirming almost 200k cases per day. Now how many of those are considered "at risk", who knows. Would a 55 year old with hypertension qualify or is that not enough? Would like to be optimistic but you outlined the challenges well.

Definitely a chance that the roads in general get sloppy, not just the bridges/overpasses, especially in the heavier precip.

Barring something strange, first measurable snow of the season looks likely at ORD on Tuesday. Should have been last month, but I digress.

Put me in the pour snow camp. Precip rates look pretty good overall and have some banding potential for even heavier rates. Ideally it could be a little colder but I think it's good enough for a band of 2-5" from IWX to DTX areas of responsibility.

From what i remember, the supply is limited. They gotta do whatever they can to ramp up production.

Somebody, anybody might want to issue a winter weather advisory. Then again it's a Sunday and magnitude of ground impacts are a bit uncertain.

I'm sure some people are. The real test is next week, especially Wednesday. But the airport traffic is only one part. If people who normally fly are deciding to drive instead, then it doesn't really matter.

Will be interesting to see the travel data and how it compares to a typical Thanksgiving. Even if it's down 10 or 20 percent, that would still be a huge number of people traveling. The act of traveling may not be so risky if you're being careful... it's what you do when you get to your destination.

Every county in IN has recorded at least 1 death now, and every county has over 200 cases. Several counties in the state have 10,000 residents or less, so slowly but surely it has been getting into the more rural areas.

Dining indoors... no. I've tried to be very careful. Tuesday was the first time I knowingly put myself in a prolonged situation in which I knew that people weren't going to be wearing masks. Like I said, I was masked, and we kept our distance for the most part. It was a pre-Thanksgiving visit, and strategically done on Tuesday because I am planning on getting together with my mother next Saturday to celebrate Thanksgiving (only the 2 of us). The vast majority of people would become symptomatic by the 11th day.

Have been feeling a little off ever since I woke up this morning. Sinuses don't seem quite right. Funny how hyper aware you are now and the first thought immediately goes to whether or not you might have covid. Plus I was remembering how it's been 4 days since I was at my sister's house for a few hours. I was double masked but they weren't wearing any. Certainly will be keeping a very close watch on myself to see if anything changes.

At this point it's no longer newsworthy that the federal government is not stepping up to address the rapidly worsening situation with the virus. Rather, it would be newsworthy if they did. Unfortunately it was not hard to forsee this happening in the post-election period. Call your Senators and put pressure on them to get something done. At least it has a small chance of working, unlike bemoaning it on a message board.

Yesterday was revised to 204k on worldometers after the missing state reported.

Less cases today in IN than last Saturday, but there were 7000 fewer tests. Either because of testing issues or less people feeling the need to get one.

Feels nice to look at a wintry system again. That one in Iowa last month was a sneak attack so couldn't really get into it ahead of time. Looking at NAM forecast soundings in the changeover zone, there is not much room for error as there is a several thousand foot thick isothermal layer just below 0C. If it ends up a little warmer, then it's mainly rain with some wet snow mixed in during heavy precip. My gut feeling is that the GFS is too warm, and it's not like I have much of a personal stake in it as the main action looks to be south of here. Precip rates look pretty good, so I am leaning more toward the NAM solution. The sun angle is not really an issue in late November, but the setup is so marginal to begin with that I do wonder how well it will accumulate during the daytime on Sunday. All that being said, I'm feeling a bit bullish and will go with 2-5" in the main band, mainly on grassy/elevated surfaces.

I think we'll get a little over 200k on worldometers if every state reports (and places like TX and CA add in more cases).

LOT mentioned some wet snow accumulations possible especially south of I-80.

You have to remember that a large number of people in NYC died at home instead... from covid and non-covid things. Part of the reason why the field hospitals ended up being largely unused.

We have reached 25k cases in my county, out of a population of almost 486k. Obviously it's a bit of a guessing game on how many cases have been missed since this began, but... If cases are 5x higher than reported, it would mean that 125k, or about 26% of my county has had it. If cases are 8x higher than reported, it would mean that 200k, or 41% of my county has had it. There are false positives and false negatives of course. Also, there may be some people who had covid, moved out of the county and were replaced by people who have not had covid, but this seems like nibbling at the edges type of stuff that would be unlikely to change things in a huge way. At some point you start to wonder if some kind of temporary/partial herd immunity kicks in and slows down the infection rate, but there is no sign of it yet as my county continues to consistently have several hundred new cases per day with some record high days in the mix.

Been very busy today and this is my first time in the thread. Have to say I don't like how it's going, and I imagine it could get more testy with a rising death toll. Do better, or else the thread may be shut down.

Well, I looked, and I'm not sure. Some critical differences exist in the thermal profiles between the NAM and GFS. I tend to think the GFS is a little too warm and would not be surprised to see band of wet snow running through here or nearby, but certainly not willing to go all-in on the NAM.

Anyone see the Denmark mask study that is making the rounds? It is being used by some to discredit mask wearing. It has several limitations though and did not examine whether an infected person wearing a mask is less likely to transmit to someone else.

They do simulate what amounts to a "let it rip" scenario. That one leads to about 660k deaths by March 1. I heard they were going to start to factor vaccinations in to the projection, but I'm not sure if it happened on this week's update. And if we're being honest... the vaccines aren't going to arrive and take effect in time this winter for the vast majority of Americans. http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america