Hoosier

A survey was done about peoples plans for Thanksgiving. 3 states in/near this sub -- Iowa, Indiana, Missouri -- had over 30% of respondents say they plan on being with people outside of their household. It was noted that all of these percentages may be an underestimate though because some people may have been too shy to say that they planned to spend this holiday with people from other households. State by state data here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/24/upshot/thanksgiving-dinner-survey.html

Anyone up for some 00z NAM tea leaf reading?

A darn shame that the masks decided to start spreading it around more in the past several weeks.

When I saw the GFS starting to get into the timeframe, I thought there was no way it was going to throw snow back this far west. Typically that's a pretty bad surface low track, but system evolves in a way to produce a snow band pretty far west.

Honestly, 10 days seems kind of quick to see it reflected in the case numbers. Get exposed, become symptomatic, get tested, get the results back is often going to take more than 10 days. If anything, I'd pin it more on the period of warm weather earlier this month, but it's hard to say for sure because everybody in the Midwest was warm but the cases haven't dropped everywhere.

Many of us can probably relate, but the number of people I know who had/have covid has accelerated. I know about as many people who have gotten it in the past month or two as I did in the first ~6 months. Up to around 20 with 2 of them being hospitalized.

Yes. An individual person going into the hospital with covid now is more likely to survive compared to spring, but progress in knowledge and treatments is negated when the number of hospitalized becomes so huge. Deaths will only get worse. It is basically baked in that we will start seeing 3000+ deaths on some days by the middle of December.

If we are already roughly plateauing on cases in the Midwest, then it would strongly point to the idea that the 7+ day stretch of warmer weather at the beginning of the month was the main culprit in causing the temporary drop. As has been pointed out, numbers in the coming days are bound to look a bit screwy due to the holiday and will need some more time to evaluate. Then, it won't be until we get at least a third to halfway through December until we start to see any ramifications from Thanksgiving gatherings.

Satisfactory enough run in the grand scheme, as I am currently looking it at in the binary yay or nay on a big storm for somebody.

Nevermind. I read it again and think I get it now. I guess it means Monday already had 35 deaths, so adding 24 new to that day results in 59. Nov 18 already had 57 deaths, so adding 2 new to that day results in 59 deaths.

That last sentence makes no sense to me.

Seeing signs that the drops in some of the Midwest states are flatlining and not continuing to drop. Not good.

At least the Canadian is still playing ball.

If you're psychologically mind gaming it, not having agreement on the phase at this point isn't the worst thing. However, you'd want to see that start to turn in the next 24 hours of model runs because we aren't terribly far out from the players starting to get on the field.

The Euro is pretty spectacular. The anomaly map speaks for itself. Given the area involved, it looks more like something you would expect to see later in December or January, not at the turn of November into December. Some traits of some of your all-time classic storms on that run.

It's still there in some form. Take that as a victory at this point. On another note, I just noticed that this one would fall on the anniversary of the 11/30-12/1, 2006 storm.

No, that's next week.

I think that is record daily cases for a state.

In the past 8 months, I have learned and been reminded about winterwx21's health and fitness more than I ever thought was possible. On the heart rate thing... you don't have to be an elite level athlete to have a resting rate in the low/mid 40s. I know, because I do, and I'm nowhere near an elite level athlete. I lift quite often and do modest amounts of plain cardio, but almost never run. I am very cognizant of magnesium intake (which is something that many are deficient in) and that may be a factor in the low resting heart rate.

lol Considering there is a storm being modeled with some consistency (talking about a storm anywhere, not the details), sure there's a chance. Obviously a ways to go yet.

Would this have gotten a map if it were January?

Anything is possible. I'd say better than 50/50 odds of a decent storm somewhere in the sub.

Tuesdays often suck for deaths with the weekend lag in reporting, and today is no different. Over 100 in IN. I think that is only the 2nd time that has happened in the state during the entire pandemic.

Looks like a general 0.5-2" fell across Chicago metro.

Indeed. Some have done pretty well, but others not so much. I have posted about Notre Dame a few times. They are now at 12% of the university (staff + students) infected in the past 3 months. That is a pretty bad percentage in that amount of time, especially because everybody should know by now what helps to slow the spread. It is a little tough to make it stick in people that age though. People may think so what, it's college kids and they're not as vulnerable, but the problem is it spreads out into the community.