Hoosier

Swedish Life Expectancy to Drop for First Time in Century Due to Covid-19 (Bloomberg) -- Life expectancy is falling in Sweden, which the country’s statistics agency says is directly tied to the coronavirus pandemic. The average age people live “has increased steadily in Sweden from 1900 to 2019,” the agency said in a statement on Wednesday. “The fact that it’s now falling stands out.” Sweden has suffered a much higher Covid-19 mortality rate than its Nordic neighbors, with its old-age care homes particularly hard hit. The country’s decision not to impose a lockdown remains controversial, and authorities are now shifting gear to place outright bans on some forms of social interaction to fight the virus. For men, average life expectancy has already fallen to 80.8 in the year through August, from 81.3, Statistics Sweden said. For women, it fell to 84.4 from 84.7. Based on the development so far, the statistics agency said it expects that “Covid-19 will cut life expectancy this year.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/swedish-life-expectancy-to-drop-for-first-time-in-century-due-to-covid-19/ar-BB1blluD?ocid=uxbndlbing

The AstraZeneca vaccine is taking on substantial criticism because of how they ran the trials.

What's sad is that all of those recommendations immediately made sense as to why it could increase the transmission risk. Been at this too long.

No doubt there will be some ugly looking data dumps on the rebound.

Don Sutherland is going with a warm winter in the Lakes (>3F above average). But considering the temps, his snow projections for Chicago and Detroit aren't terrible.

Sort of hit a wall. Almost 20 states haven't reported yet.

Lots of cars down the street. Somebody's having a big gathering.

I did look at it a bit, and yes, it would not be your classic colder LES event. The thermodynamics are mediocre, but the duration and at least potential for a very long fetch could still result in some pretty decent amounts somewhere imo. And likely to spread well inland given the robust low level flow.

IWX discussion. Lol @ the first paragraph The social media rumblings are gradually turning to a roar regarding the snow potential Monday through perhaps Wednesday. This event is far from a slam dunk. Regardless of the track of the surface low that has everyone`s attention, there is also a notable lake effect snow threat. The previous three GFS runs (12z Today included) show a closed low at 500 mb over southern Illinois (18z Monday), and a surface low near Pittsburgh. The 12Z ECMWF upper-level pattern is a touch farther east and less of a closed low at 500 mb. However, the surface lows are in similar locations. Go back three runs and the solutions are somewhat steady. However, add an additional 3-4 model runs and the solutions are erratic. I mention this because I would like to see even more run to run consistency. Tracing the northern stream 500-mb jet, this feature should arrive onshore of British Columbia on Friday afternoon. This *should* improve the modeling of this feature in subsequent runs, and therefore improve the confidence in the forecast track. Turning briefly to ensemble clusters (00z Thursday runs), the overall shape of the 500- mb pattern for the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS are similar. However, there continues to be a lot of noise within these patterns. That is, while there may be a 500-mb low located in our neighborhood, its placement amongst the members varies notably. This decreases forecast confidence.

Member #49 must be a wrapped up son of a gun.

Can someone post the EPS images?

Having thanksgiving outdoors today is not really feasible in a lot of the northern US.

As an example, the average date of the first 3" snow in Columbus, OH is not til around New Years.

Everyone wants the big storm of course but perspective is key. A zone of 3-6" in the OV just as the calendar turns to December would be respectable.

12k in Illinois.

Considering it's thanksgiving, the early reporting states are putting up fairly high numbers. Perhaps the decrease from holiday reporting will show up more significantly in the coming days.

Thanks, you did the work for me. So I guess the long fetch would be the most favorable factor?

May have to dig into the lake effect setup locally if the storm misses east. Looks like there could be a period of favorable fetch.

The cutoff, or more accurately what will become the cutoff, is onshore now. At least there's that, but it's only part of the picture.

This will be a rare sappy post but want to wish everyone a wonderful, happy thanksgiving! I've known a few of you through these boards for about 20 years now but consider everyone to be part of my online extended family. Here's hoping that we all get through the upcoming months with our health... and plenty of snow.

New storm thread

Time to take the plunge. I think a complete non-event everywhere is less likely than not (though still possible), and obviously it has some potential to be pretty good.

I have full confidence in that evolution. P.S. it's now Ken Jennings

That surface low REALLY gets yanked back due to the ULL influence. It's basically an App runner at first.