Hoosier

Seems like the general consensus is that vaccinations could start in mid-December or late December. Even in the people who get vaccinated first, they won't have good protection until mid to late January. I'm wondering what happens if someone gets the first shot and then develops covid in the few weeks after, but prior to the second shot. There's bound to be at least some isolated occurrences of that. Would they be more likely to get a milder case or no effect?

00z HRRR

Also, 850 mb winds have a slight eastward component, with the top of the mixed layer extending substantially above that level. Probably will even get snow showers into the Illinois shore area for a while.

Weenie band of drought is still alive

Appears that more of the hospitalization data got in today, with over 91k now in the US.

My fear is that we time it where the back half of Dec is worse than the first half. Hopefully not, because warm holidays suck.

GFS really goes nuts with the storm out east next weekend. Sub 960 mb...

Well, doesn't this look great? The temp map looks more like what you would expect in El Nino.

The 3-6" I am going with is for areas just to our east... far eastern LOT and into western IWX. I have deliberately been holding off on a call for our backyards because of more uncertainty this far west as far as the duration of snow. There are some signals for multiple bands, and there could be flakes in the air for many hours, even for us. If I had a gun to my head, I'd go with 1-2" for us, with most of that on colder/grassy surfaces. Marine influence/marginal temps are complicating factors, though being several miles inland should help a little.

18z NAM is coming in pretty nice for you guys to my east.

Somebody stole a bunch of Ohio posters. At least that's my story and I'm stickin to it.

IWX going with 3-6" makes me feel good about my call. I know there are decision trees and those types of methods to employ for LES, but after living around the area for so long, I sort of go based on feel after weighing the parameters/overall setup. Even so, LES can still easily humble.

Gotta be the latter I'd think.

Seems like it might be setting up the ol foreign vs American model camps, especially if the 00z Euro looks anything like the 18z run.

Not bad, and I'm guessing there would be more in Ohio after 90 hrs.

Anecdotal reports of tooth loss https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/26/health/covid-teeth-falling-out.amp.html

Keep in mind it would mean about 1 in 2.5 infections have been caught since March. Just doesn't smell right to me. We all remember early on how hard it was to get a test in most states, including Indiana. We certainly weren't like New York, but the virus was already here a fair amount in March/April. The image that OSU posted does show a pretty wide range of possible infection numbers.

A bit on the early side to feel confident in snow amounts, but my early thought is 3-6" downwind of southern Lake Michigan... primarily LES as it appears most of the system snow will pass south/east. If it were colder/another time of year, I'd be going with over 6" without thinking twice, but there are concerns with surface temps and the DGZ being very mismatched from the omega, which means flake size does not look ideal. The fetch is phenomenal, with a connection to Lake Superior, which goes on for many hours. Delta T and equilibrium heights are sort of middle of the road, so I don't see it as an event that will produce extreme rates, but certainly could be fairly heavy at times. Highest amounts may occur more inland than usual due to the combination of a pronounced marine influence and strong low level flow. Finally, an impactful wave/erosion event also looks likely along southern Lake Michigan with a long duration of 40-50 mph gusts, and this may end up being a bigger story than the snow for the shoreline area.

The one that wasn't posted is the Canadian.

The Indiana University Fairbanks School of Public Health has been doing an ongoing study of the prevalence of covid-19 in the state of Indiana. Their latest numbers really surprised me. As of November 20, they estimate that only 10.6% of the state has been infected. The reason this surprised me is that it would mean about 715,000 people have been infected, and we had about 280,000 confirmed cases on 11/20. So, it would seem to imply that since the start of the pandemic, testing in Indiana has successfully caught about 1 out of 2.5 cases (I understand the lag with testing and getting results, but just keeping it simple). That goes against basically everything I have read. I acknowledge that there is state by state variance on how many cases have been caught, but 1 out of 2.5 sounds like an awfully damn good success rate. I was wondering if I'm missing something and there's some word gaming, like does a confirmed case not always equal an infection, but I don't know. If the 10.6% is somehow right, and I have my doubts, it's bad news as the state has already had well over 5k deaths and vaccines are still weeks to months away.

Re: the Euro, there has definitely been a more progressive trend overall. Here are the past several 00z and 12z runs, valid at 00z Dec 1.

I think somebody in/around northwest IN may make a run toward at least transient blizzard conditions with the LES with that enhanced boundary layer mixing downwind of the lake. Not sure on whether that can be achieved with the synoptic storm. My initial thought is no for the most part, unless it bombs out more, but it looks windy regardless.

Very possible. Highest confidence in OH though.

I'd probably start getting excited if I were in Ohio. Not a done deal but generally honing in on an outcome.

00z NAM is a bit slower with the southern stream closed low so far. *Could* mean a farther west solution down the line on this run.