Hoosier

Ominous that we are at/near over 200k cases per day recently, because it has to be kept in mind that virtually nobody who got exposed on Thanksgiving would be in the numbers yet. In a number of areas, can't really afford even a slight bump from Thanksgiving. Friday often puts up the biggest case numbers nationally. Don't know if that will hold true tomorrow because of the atypical circumstance of coming off of the holiday, but we'll see.

Yes, but the commonality is lots of deaths in a day. A counterpoint may be that it was mostly working age people who died on 9/11 and that it's mostly older people now. I don't have the numbers in front of me but if we only look at deaths under 65, I'd bet that this has resulted in many tens of thousands of deaths.

Agree. Probably heading over 210k and maybe a shot at 215k or more on worldometers.

Bare ground is so exciting.

Yesterday was adjusted upward on worldometers to 206k cases and 2,875 deaths. There were about 2,977 people killed in the 9/11 attacks.

I'm sure it was in the US in late 2019 as well. I don't think the numbers were large though, because we would've seen a noticeable bump in excess deaths around that time. I saw a good comparison about starting off with a penny and then doubling the amount every day. If you double it, you don't have a whole lot of money for a while, but then the amount really takes off. Similar thing with the virus. It is quite contagious, but it still takes a while to really get seeded in and start to do big damage.

The 9,855 number wasn't NYC. That's New York STATE. New York state has almost 20 million people. Per capita, things aren't that bad there yet, though parts of the state are doing worse, such as western New York.

May have a minor LES setup for the western/southern shores of LM on Sun/Mon. Looks marginal to say the least though.

At/near the daily case record in IN. There was a small backload of 400 some cases added in today. Generally speaking though, it seems like the plateau has been reached and we may even be starting to trend up again.

Feels bad to even say it but hopefully we can hold the daily death average to 3000-3500 at peak. Even that would suggest some 4k days on the higher days.

I read it like a week ago but am almost certain that neither company had pregnant women in the trials.

So, Canada's Thanksgiving was on October 12, which I marked on the worldometers chart below. Cases were already rising there at that time but exploded after that. How much of it is seasonality and other factors besides Thanksgiving is hard to say.

One issue with the vaccine right off the bat has to do with pregnant women. There are a lot of women in healthcare with some fraction of them being pregnant. Pfizer and Moderna did not enroll pregnant women in their trials, so there is no data for that group of people. No data is not necessarily the same thing as not safe/effective, but are pregnant healthcare workers going to be forced to get vaccinated? I could see that being problematic if some of them don't want to be vaccinated, and they'd be able to argue that hey, there is no data to back up this vaccine for me.

I have hope it will go better than testing did early on, which was a debacle.

I would argue even beyond that. It is something that needs to be monitored over a period of time. Say that the first round of shots is in mid to late December. Then the second dose happens in early to mid January. I think end of January to end of February could really be the telling month in nursing homes and when you would expect to see plummeting rates of infection among staff and residents.

One of the most spread the wealth storms I can remember is the January 1999 storm, but even that didn't get everybody.

Seems like there are 2 camps about the vaccine. One is that the vaccine is coming, so let's buckle down for a while until it gets here. The other one is what you said... the vaccine is coming, so who cares what happens in the interim.

Got me thinking. I'm not even sure it's possible to get a single winter storm to cover the entire subforum, though there have been some big spread the wealth events.

That is the first time for back to back 100+ death days in IN (confirmed + probable). Also, we topped 1000 covid patients in ICU statewide.

The thought is that if the nursing home employees are vaccinated, and if being vaccinated means you can't trsnsmit the virus, then you just about cut off the virus from nursing homes without having to vaccinate the nursing home residents (as long as visitation isn't allowed). That being said, I'm not sure if we definitively know the answer about a vaccinated person not being able to carry covid-19 and pass it on. Is it just an assumption?

Yeah, guess it can't be ruled out. Wednesdays usually have huge numbers too.

Assuming there's not a big backlog that drops on a particular day this week, we could approach 3000 deaths next Tuesday.

No real surprise that the CDC panel is recommending that health care workers and nursing home residents ought to get the vaccine first. There's a school of thought that if the vaccine is as effective as claimed, maybe you could just vaccinate the nursing home employees and hold off on vaccinating nursing home residents and save those early doses for other essential workers and elderly people who live outside of nursing homes. Makes some sense, but assuming the recommendations are followed, that's not how it will go.

Northern OH is doing well.

Just the 7 state area of PA, MI, IL, IN, OH, WI, MO has reported 1,012 deaths today.