Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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I don't think we're still only catching 1 in 8 cases in the US. Would like to think we are better than that.
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Would be interesting to see how the general public would remember 2000-01. That was an extreme front loaded winter. Would it be remembered as a tame winter?
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I guess I am different than the general public. For example, 2006-2007. Although winter came on strong especially by February, that shit period prior to that wasn't erased from my memory.
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I thought the CDC recently estimated the number to be 50 some million cases.
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Yeah, it's hard to believe they won't go up to some extent, even if the theory about some partial immunity is true (have to remember that per capita, those northern Plains/upper Midwest areas have had more cases than just about anybody). There would've been many opportunities for spread on Thanksgiving. If the numbers do have a rebound, the next question is if it's a smallish rebound or does it get all the way back to the levels from a few weeks ago?
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I mean, look at states like ND, SD, IA, WI. The numbers have gone down there. I will be very interested to see if that can continue through the next week or two though as the Thanksgiving period is accounted for.
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I think there's a difference between true herd immunity and some potential partial immunity after some threshold get sick within a certain period of time. In true herd immunity, cases would plummet to extremely low levels and essentially be background noise, which is not the case in the upper Midwest states even though there have been declines.
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I seem to remember Iowa putting in a mask mandate a while back, but 1) I'm not 100% sure on that, and 2) if they did, I'm not sure when it happened. The part about some partial/small herd immunity makes sense, though is a bit speculative. The next several days will be revealing to see if those states were able to make it through Thanksgiving and still not have any rise in cases.
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Maybe very early results. It is still taking 4-7 days to get test results back in many instances.
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I'm not sure how this would work. People need the money ASAP and many won't have access to the vaccine for a few more months.
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Exciting
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I don't know. I feel like we'd need to see 250-275k cases per day regularly to be talking about 5k deaths per day a few weeks later. Either way, it's a bad situation that is getting worse.
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California has 40 million people, so they can rack up huge totals at will. Not to downplay the increasing seriousness there though.
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The drop in current hospitalizations in Indiana is good from a capacity standpoint, but the news is not as good as it seemed. There were 436 new admissions, which is one of the highest numbers so far in the pandemic. You get discharged in 1 of 2 ways -- you go home or you die. In some states where the R value is hovering a hair above 1, I wonder if it has gotten to the point that the sheer numbers of people dying day after day is helping to free up some space.
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Got a shot at over 230k on worldometers.
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Beavis, it was only 61 at ORD on June 21, 1992. I would consider that uncomfortably cool for that time of year. But I get what you're saying.
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I actually forgot I wasn't in the banter thread when I read that. Epic post for December 4.
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Was thinking about that Imperial study that came out way back when. Remember it suggested 2+ million deaths in the US if no mitigation measures were taken at all (I think it was over a 2 year period but don't quote me). Considering where it appears we are heading, there's little doubt, at least in my mind, that we would've approached that figure by early 2022 had we let it rip with no masking, no social distancing, no attempts to protect more vulnerable people, etc.
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New IHME update is out. The model now includes a rapid vaccine rollout, including to higher risk groups, and it still projects over 538k deaths by April 1.
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Decent dip in the hospitalization numbers in IN. How long that can keep up is questionable with cases seemingly rising again.
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At least you have the 0.4" locally.
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Read a story from my aunt. One of her friends has a daughter who is in her 20s and has covid. Healthy, no preexisting conditions, and she had a stroke. Not definitively from covid but obviously have to strongly suspect that given the circumstances.
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Just over 485,000 people live in my county and there have been 484 covid deaths, so getting to the point that 1 out of every 1000 people living in this county has died from covid... whether they are young, old, healthy, unhealthy. Obviously it would look even worse if you filtered by age or preexisting conditions.
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Hey Howard, what's up? Did Keith Allen do a winter outlook this year? I like reading about that even though he is not from my region.
