Hoosier

Pretty much sticking to its guns. 18z run will be interesting to see if it backs off at all. In this setup, it's gonna make a difference whether dews are in the upper 40s vs like 53.

It'll be game on if the HRRR verifies with the higher dewpoints, as it generates a respectable amount of CAPE with those still relatively modest dews. That is a big if though. I'd break it down into 3 scenarios. 1) The HRRR verifies, which would lead to a decent severe threat for this time of year 2) The other guidance with lower dews verifies, resulting in essentially no severe threat 3) Something somewhere in between the HRRR and other models verifies, which could lead to a rogue severe report or two

I guess the other concern is that the se trend has a way of not showing up when you need it.

Re: the next storm... The dominant trend on systems overall has been south/east as they get closer. The problem is if that occurs, then it would probably be a weaker system for your area.

High of only 31 at ORD today, which breaks the streak of consecutive days of highs AOA freezing. It ends up being tied for the 4th longest start to a calendar year before a subfreezing high, only surpassed by 1880, 1939 and 2007. A victory for winter. A harbinger of things to come. The tide is turning.

You would think you're in Florida by the sound of things. My lawn looks like crap btw.

Well, January 16 is a milestone day, which is prior to this storm.

Temps better get a move on at ORD, or else the streak of sub 32 highs will end. Temps definitely underperforming so far today (originally looked like highs in the mid 30s were possible... or at least above freezing).

This event is the make or break of whether Chi Storm starts flooding us with futility stats.

This timeframe is actually farther out than when I started my thread. But RC brought up a good point. That previous event really was a thread the needle, while this one is not so dependent on northern stream phasing. So maybe relatively higher confidence in it occurring (in general, not specifically for someone's backyard)

You know you're a legend when your name appears in the title. But seriously, looks good for a decent snow somewhere. For now.

Did some quick research, and we're getting into interesting territory as far as this goes... Latest first high under 32 in Chicago in a calendar year: Feb 1 (1880) Jan 19 (1939) Jan 16 (2007) Jan 14 (1992) Jan 13 (1955) Jan 12 (1921) Jan 11 (1917) With no sub 32 degree high yet in 2023 and no sub 32 degree highs in the forecast, it's looking very likely that we will get to 2nd place on this list. Have a hard time thinking the Feb 1 mark will be dethroned though.

Beavis will "like" this stat. ORD hasn't had a high below freezing since December 27. And it won't happen today either since the early morning hours were above freezing.

As an example, I'd be confident that downtown got more snow than ORD in winter 2020-21, largely courtesy of this event: Now how many times has it occurred throughout history? Who knows.

Number of days with exactly 0.1" of snow in Chicago by decade. Started this list in 1900 as snowfall records for Chicago didn't begin until 1884, and a number of years in the 1890s have missing daily data. Data set is almost complete from the 1900s onward, with the exceptions being the year 1900 and a small part of the 1990s. 1900-1909: 53 1910-1919: 53 1920-1929: 48 1930-1939: 31 1940-1949: 57 1950-1959: 47 1960-1969: 38 1970-1979: 55 1980-1989: 46 1990-1999: 24 2000-2009: 54 2010-2019: 46

This seems like it would be pretty difficult to sort out. In early season, a more inland location like ORD would have an advantage over downtown/lakeside when winds are onshore due to the mild water temps. But downtown/lakeside would have an advantage with something occurring later in the season or a very cold early season event with onshore winds via a boost from the lake. Downtown would've outsnowed ORD in some years. Maybe not a majority of years, but probably not a particularly unusual occurrence.

Regarding the small snows of 0.1" or 0.2", I took a look at Chicago's numbers. 4 years have had 10+ days with 0.1", and 3 out of those 4 occurred in the 1940s or earlier: 2008-09: 12 days 1890-91: 11 days 1905-06: 11 days 1946-47: 10 days No years have had double digit days with 0.2", but 2 years have had 9 such days: 1885-86: 9 days 1961-62: 9 days

31 degrees at the top of the hour. Winter in winter. Who would've thought.

MSP not getting blitzed? Toss

Good post. The southeast ridge usually seems to assert itself in Ninas in February, so I'd probably be nervous with southward/eastward extent in this sub. Could be a good month for a good part of the region though depending how things unfold.

Not to be "that guy", as my snowfall average is put to shame by a number of areas in the US, but not sure why anyone in the southeast outside of the mountains would invest much time in winter weather. It just doesn't happen often enough. As an example, I looked up Raleigh and they average like mid single digit snowfall per season. An average like that means it will usually snow at some point. Just taking the wintry weather as it comes seems like it would save a lot of grief.

Maybe a good sign for Chicago next year if Minneapolis continues to run away with it this year.

As of now, kayman has 128 out of less than 150 posts in today's severe thread. Does anybody else in this region give a whit about severe weather?

Not sure this really fits here since it's pretty separate from the main system, but since it's already been talked about a bit, here's LOT's take on the lake enhanced precip. A downright heavy event by this season's standards. In the vicinity of the lake, lake effect snow showers are expected to develop through the night as colder 850 mb temperatures arrive and localized convergence increases. LES parameters are altogether fairly marginal as things will be capped off by the aforementioned building inversion. Lake-induced ELs are only forecast to peak near 5-7 kft, and with saturation only ephemerally reaching into the DGZ, not looking at an overly high-quality snow. Certainly the availability of the near full fetch of the lake and limited shear would support more of a concern, but as they stand right now, the thermodynamic profiles are a significant limiting factor. Multi-model consensus suggests a 1-2 inch type event through Friday morning across NW Indiana, with spotty amounts perhaps pushing north of 2 inches away from the 36-38 degree lake influence. Can`t rule out the LES band flopping westward through Friday morning which could deliver a last burst of snow to Chicago before winds shift out of the NW and guide lingering LES eastward. Carlaw

Kind of remarkable how often guidance has overphased/overdeveloped storms in the medium range, only to reverse as it gets closer in time.