Hoosier

Was hoping for some follow up on that. Maybe a link or something. D-luciferin is a real thing... it actually exists. But the odds of it being in the vaccine in that amount, lol

Yeah, the hype machine was in full effect. I remember TWC even broke out "heavy snow" on their outlook maps a few days in advance, which was something rarely seen.

With ORD still stuck on 0.7" due to the clipper fail this morning that RC alluded to and prospects diminishing for much in the way of measurable snow in time for Christmas, now it's really starting to get "fun" in terms of futility for Chicago. First image is least snow through Christmas day and the second image is least snow through Dec 31. We'll see if we can get something before the 31st to get off of that list. Again, ignore 1996.

At least you have LES to look forward to in the coming days. Would take quite an evasive act to miss that.

Went back and added the snowiest month for each of those seasons. About half the time, more than half of the total snowfall came in 1 month.

Well said. There was never good model agreement on a big storm in this timeframe. Maybe a rogue run here or there and that's about it. Still a possibility of a surprise, but if not, then just hope you can lay down a little snow just in time for Christmas. Would be better than bare ground.

Probably a matter of time until this shows up in the US, if it hasn't sneaked in already.

Less digging/amplification, which suggests more of a northern stream dominated outcome and keeps the ceiling on potential down compared to what earlier runs would have extrapolated to.

Still going to be at 0.7" through 12/20. So, excluding 1996 for reason stated above, here are the years with 1" or less through 12/20 and the final snowfall total. Average annual snowfall at ORD is just over 36", so lots of clunkers on the list. While that might be favored as an outcome, it is not assured. 1998-99 was obviously helped out big time by the huge January 1999 storm. Had that storm not occurred, the final total would have been 29.3" instead of 50.9" 2012-13: 30.1" (February: 16.1") 1998-99: 50.9" (January: 29.6") 1993-94: 41.8" (February: 26.2") 1938-39: 33.9" (January: 24.7") 1943-44: 24.0" (February: 12.5") 1912-13: 19.0" (March: 7.1") 1918-19: 28.8" (March: 11.0") 1990-91: 23.5" (January: 11.1") 2001-02: 31.1" (January: 15.5") 1923-24: 27.6" (March: 11.9") 1984-85: 39.1" (January: 18.9") 1939-40: 31.0" (February: 12.9") 2003-04: 24.8" (January: 14.6")

Parts of Ohio have had a lot more, but yeah... weather is going to do what it's going to do.

Is that real? I'm sorry but that is pretty funny.

Very large number of test results came back today in IN, by far the most test results on a Sunday and the 2nd highest test result day ever.

It may for someone. Unclear whether BAMwx can will it to occur in Indiana.

I agree it's a strange look. The only thing I could come up with is maybe some of the warm departures could be from lack of snowcover? The current snowcover situation is pretty pitiful in the northern tier and even up into parts of Canada. The problem with that theory though is that the CFS has January wetter than average in much of Canada. If that is correct, then they will be building up snow. As you know, getting precip is way more important than temperature departures for snow at those latitudes. Would point out that overall the coarse CFS looks on track to do a pretty darn good job with December. But you really want to get it to the last few days of the month for the higher predictive value, and right now it's only December 20.

I see cyclone is currently posting. I will bet 5 million dollars that I don't have that it will contain a mention of 8/10.

I got next to nothing. Overall, may be one of the more boring weather years I can remember imby. If I had to pick out a few things, I'd go with the Cristobal remnants followed by the severe storm the next morning. The warm streak in November was pretty impressive. Had a couple semi-big rain events. The August 10 derecho was rather run of the mill in my local area. Obviously it was a big show stealer elsewhere.

You gotta stop confusing things with those 10 day snow maps.

Non-trivial chance that everything "caves." Meaning that the actual outcome looks different than anything currently progged.

If you live anywhere other than Bo and you like sustained/deep winter, better hope this still doesn't look like this in another 7-10 days from now

Have been trying to find out how many people in the US have received the vaccine so far. I saw 128,000 as of yesterday, but it was mentioned as being a significant undercount since some states didn't report any info. Let's say it's really 200-300k. Also, not sure exactly how many serious/severe allergic reactions have occurred. We have heard about 3 in Alaska and some other non-specific reports. Still more to learn, but it seems quite possible the significant allergic reaction happens in something like 1 in 20,000 to 1 in 50,000 people. If it's somewhere in that range, then it's not hard to see why it was missed in the trials as that would be at the edge or beyond the number of people who received the vaccine in trial. Given the circumstances, I'm not sure there was much of a choice though. Something had to be done to get vaccines out there after a certain safety threshold was reached, without studying and trialing it to death.

Yeah it's not good, but the real dagger would be if it mutates into something that screws with the vaccines. There is a lot riding on the vaccines to get us back to normal life.

Christmas cancel in the UK due to a more contagious variant spreading around. Millions forced to cancel Christmas as 'new variant' of coronavirus spreads in U.K. LONDON — Millions of people in London and the U.K.'s southeast will be forced to cancel their Christmas plans after scientists said Saturday that a new coronavirusvariant was spreading more quickly. Prime Minister Boris Johnson told a news conference that the toughest set of coronavirus restrictions — known as "Tier 4" — will be put in place from Sunday, putting regions under the strictest lockdown rules. As a result, nonessential shops, gyms, cinemas, hairdressers and bowling alleys will be forced to close for two weeks, while people will be restricted to meeting one other person from another household in an outdoor public space. A "bubble" policy — allowing up to three households to meet over the holiday period in parts of the country that are not under Tier 4 restrictions — will be severely curtailed and will only apply on Christmas Day, Johnson said. He added that he "bitterly regretted" the changes, but insisted they were "necessary." "Alas, when the facts change, you have to change your approach," he said, adding that a briefing he had on Friday "about this mutation of the virus, particularly about the speed of transmission, was not possible to ignore." "The message is that this is the year to lift a glass to those who aren't there, in the knowledge that it's precisely because they're not there to celebrate Christmas with you this year that we all have a better chance that they'll be there next year," he said. Johnson spoke out after he was advised by scientists that the new coronavirus variant was spreading more rapidly. The chief medical officer for England, Professor Chris Whitty, said in a statement Saturday that the U.K. had informed the World Health Organization about the mutant strain. "As announced on Monday, the U.K. has identified a new variant of Covid-19 through Public Health England's genomic surveillance," he said, adding that preliminary modeling data and rising cases in the country's southeast showed "the new strain can spread more quickly." He added that scientists were "continuing to analyze the available data to improve our understanding." However, he insisted that there was "no current evidence to suggest the new strain causes a higher mortality rate or that it affects vaccines and treatments although urgent work is under way to confirm this." https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1251803

Glass half full post. There is more than one swath of snow. Not that you'd have confidence in this particular evolution.

12z Euro is a bit of a discombobulated mess and if you're looking for overall lame outcomes, a pretty good run for that.