Hoosier

Futility doesn't like it when you get too greedy and look way ahead. That's why it's better to take it as it comes.

Here's a fun stat. Lowest combined snow totals at Milwaukee and Chicago through 12/23. 2020: 1.1" 1939: 1.3" 1923: 1.5" 1918: 1.6" 1943: 1.9" 2001: 1.9"

The front end signal is pretty decent. Just a question of whether that sets up for Chicago or Green Bay.

There have been 3 Christmas Eves at MLI with a high of 13 or colder and a T or 0 snow depth. 1910: high 11 ; snow depth: T 1996: high 12 ; snow depth: 0 1968: high 13 ; snow depth: T

You're not a true weather weenie if you're not outside in those conditions.

You are acting like WAA tends to be underestimated or something. The antecedent airmass is no New Year's 1999 unfortunately, but it does look like it will be a player.

Sounds like the African strain may even be more contagious than the UK one.

New record high at Rockford.

Milwaukee is suffering worse than Chicago. MKE has not even had a calendar day 0.5" snowfall yet. The record latest calendar day 0.5" snow at MKE is January 16 (1907)

Outside of lake effect zones, there is practically nobody in this sub with a bigger snowfall deficit (as % of average) than Chicago right now. If you are talking about the last 10 years, then yeah, different story.

While I don't necessarily share the level of optimism that Snowstorms does (I do believe there is a path for it to cut pretty hard unless the low off the east coast backs up more), it is conceivable to see southward adjustments in the track. Looks like a good storm for somebody with significant front end thump potential as a consolation prize.

The winds today might be a top 10 highlight.

I don't think any amount of desperation would get me to look at the ICON a week out.

Hospitalizations are up again in IN. That is the first time in almost a month that there have been 2 consecutive days of increases.

My mom's cousin has covid. She worked in healthcare and retired like 5 years ago but came out of retirement because of the situation. Unclear if she contracted it at work or somewhere else, but the good news is that she is virtually asymptomatic and quite a bit of time has gone by (she had more than 1 positive test so she almost certainly really has covid). At the risk of restarting the conversation about the overweight/obese risk factor... this woman used to be like 300 pounds but lost about 150 pounds in the past year+. Makes me wonder if her course of illness would've been different had she not lost all that weight. One of those things where you're glad to never know.

I think the UK strain is probably in the US (people like Fauci and Gottlieb seem to think so) but we simply don't know yet if that was also behind the rapid fall explosion in the US. Some investigative work should be able to answer that.

Now you're just being salty. Let the folks who are in the game enjoy the tracking.

Just want to point out for viewers that that map is centimeters, not inches. Almost threw me at first.

Hospitalizations are up in IN. I went back and looked and it was last Tuesday when we had the 1 day increase, so maybe it is becoming a Tuesday thing because of some weekend reporting lags. Prior to recently, we were rising pretty much every day so it was not as easy to pick out any lags in reporting.

As bad as it's been and will continue to be in the shorter term for Chicago, it is still possible to have a big turnaround and end up with above average snow. I'd think we have to start to get going in the next few weeks though or else it would become next to impossible to rally into a snowier than average season. There have been 9 seasons that produced 50"+ of snow from 12/21 onward. The most recent was 2013-14 which had over 71" from 12/21 onward (the biggest amount from 12/21 onward on record for Chicago).

Some of the 7-10 day snow progs have had a pretty bad track record, but watch this one nail it.

We are dropping in Indiana too though with restaurants still open for the most part (some counties have cut capacity though). I admit I am surprised that the Midwest as a whole started dropping this early, especially since we have the weather working against us. Could be a combination of factors.

I remember Skilling was on vacation when it happened. Was disappointing because I wanted to see him cover it. The way I remember it, I think there was some uncertainty in the days leading up about whether Chicago proper would get into the highest band or if it was going to be just south of the city. Obviously we know how that turned out with ORD clocking in with 21.6"

Another futility mark to watch for Chicago... There has been no measurable snow since November 25. There have only been 2 years without measurable snow between November 25 and December 25 -- 1894 and 1912. Not sure if Chicago can make it through Christmas day with no measurable snow, but even if you set the cutoff at 0.5", only a dozen years (out of about 135 years) met that criteria.

Apparently this UK covid variant has been there since late September. If that is the case, it is almost assuredly in umpteen other places by now.