Hoosier

Rainer

Don't get too invested yet. 5-6 days is a lifetime to see changes in track.

We may have to be prepared for a hard shift to futility posting from him if the upcoming week doesn't work out.

You seem a little uncharacteristically optimistic for this amount of lead time. Please share some of your optimism. Thanks.

It may get to the point that I drive to the snowbelt for a snow fix.

Secondary low deepens rapidly... over 20 mb in 18 hrs on the Euro.

Looks like there will be an icy transition zone with the high in place before it retreats and low level cold erodes, though how that sets up and the magnitude of it sort of depends on how this system evolves.

You're never gonna perfectly distribute the snowfall. Certain types of tracks will win out over others in a given winter... I'm not denying that. That doesn't mean other tracks can't occur depending on the setup at a particular time. A great example of a track not locking in is December 2000. We had a rocking month and then could hardly buy any snow most of the rest of the way.

I'm not really a big believer in the idea of storm tracks following what happened earlier just because, but that GFS evolution was funny. It's not even a basic suppressed solution with a low running from the GOM to Philly or something like that, it's literally the exact type of evolution that we just had with a primary tracking nw and then another low.

The GFS has some similarities to what just happened. A primary low tracking fairly far n/w with a secondary that forms and benefits the eastern sub. Would actually be pretty comical to get missed to the east with a secondary twice in 1 week.

Not sure how to do it in a time efficient way, but it would be interesting to figure out how many times Detroit has gotten to 10" of snow for the season before Chicago got to 1"

Really don't see how northern IL/northwest IN avoids rain with this. It's a question of how much of the storm is rain... 10%, 50%, 90%, 100%? That has yet to be sorted out.

Some suggestion on the guidance of an attempt at a secondary low if not full blown secondary development. Even if that scenario were to occur, could quite possibly leave a snowless zone in between.

I took a stroll around my neighborhood that evening... walking in the streets and just taking it all in. Had never seen anywhere close to that amount of snow before. It was a surreal, almost magical experience, and I'm glad I was able to track it (sort of) for several days in advance. That whole week leading up to it was special, knowing that something big could be on the way but not knowing if it would actually pan out.

The winter storm warning text from the morning of January 2... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 445 AM CST SAT JAN 2 1999 ...SEVERE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PUMMEL MUCH OF ILLINOIS TODAY AND TONIGHT... .A SEVERE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE BURY MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNDER VERY HEAVY SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MAJOR ICE PROBLEMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS WHERE IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. ILZ005>006-012>014-020>023-032-INZ001>002-021700- MCHENRY-LAKE-KANE-DU PAGE-COOK-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE- LIVINGSTON-LAKE-PORTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WOODSTOCK... WAUKEGAN... AURORA... WHEATON... CHICAGO... MORRIS... JOLIET... KANKAKEE... PONTIAC... GARY... VALPARAISO ...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... SNOW WILL CONTINUE HEAVILY AT TIMES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BY THE TIME IT STOPS ACCUMULATING SUNDAY MORNING 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. MANY ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

ILLINOIS STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 300 AM CST SAT JAN 2 1999 ADDED WARNING INFO... MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT 500 MB AND WITH EVENTUAL LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, THOUGH THE ETA TRACKS THE LOW FURTHER WEST ON THE WAY TO ITS 48 HOUR POSITION. WILL ACCEPT THIS BASED ON RECENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALL PATTERNS AND THE FACT THAT THE FARTHEST WEST TRACK ALMOST ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE MORE CORRECT WITH STRONG SYSTEMS HEADING NORTH. SYSTEM IS CERTAINLY COMPLEX WITH SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW HAVING FALLEN ALREADY (& CONTINUING) IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT NOT NECESSARILY KEYED TO ANY 500 MB VORT MAX. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS THIS APPEARS POISED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND, POWER HOUSE VORT MAX PRESENTLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH TODAY THEN RECURVE TONIGHT IN A PATH THAT OUGHT TO REINVIGORATE SNOWFALL AND SUSTAIN GOOD LIFT OVER NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST IL THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY VERTICAL VELOCITY TIME-SECTIONS. MANUAL HEAVY SNOW OUTLOOK FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS UNDERDONE IN NORTHEAST IL. ADDED FEATURE WILL BE A AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN CHICAGO AREA AS WINDS SWING MORE NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT. LEMO METHOD SUGGEST MAX STORM TOTAL OF AROUND 18 INCHES. WILL ACCEPT WFO INPUT FOR THEIR AREAS...BUT LOOKS LIKE 12-18 INCH STORM TOTAL FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST IL, LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHEASTWARD IN NORTHWEST IN. WINDS IN NORTHEAST LOOK TO BE A LITTLE LESS THREATENING THAN THOUGHT PREVIOUSLY WITH MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. EARLIER LAKESHORE EROSION POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE KILLED. ON THE OTHER HAND WINDS GUSTING UP TO AND OVER 30 IN MANY AREAS NOW, SO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS SHOULD APPEAR IN ZONES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH. STILL COULD MEET BLIZZARD CRITERIA FOR A TIME IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS IN THE MIDST OF SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT AND MAY NEED TO GO WITH ICE STORM WARNINGS THERE. WARMER AIR WILL ALLEVIATE PROBLEMS IN FAR SOUTH LATER TODAY. POTENTIAL AFTER CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SEEMS LIMITED HOWEVER WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SUBSIDENCE/DRY SLOTTING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEE LINCOLN AND PADUCAH DISCUSSIONS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. DEEPENING LOW LIKELY TO PULL ARCTIC AIR INTO STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MUCH OF STATE SEEING STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS SUNDAY. ESPECIALLY WITH SNOW COVER, POTENTIAL FOR LARGE MOS ERRORS LOOMS. .CHI...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT NORTH AND CENTRAL ICE STORM WARNING TODAY PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GALE WARNING LM AND LS KAPLAN

ILLINOIS STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 245 PM CST FRI JAN 1 1999 POSSIBLY THE BIGGEST WINTER STORM IN PARTS OF ILLINOIS IN 20 YEARS. ETA AND NGM MODEL LOOK REASONABLE IN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF STORM THOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED OF NGM PREFERED. AVN SOLN A LITTLE TROUBLESOME...IT WOULD GIVE LESS SNOW ESPECIALLY TO NW IL. EITHER WAY A MAJOR STORM WITH NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPR LOW MERGING WITH SRN VORT COMING OUT OF TEX. JUST A MATTER OF TIMING AND FINAL POSITIONING. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURES AS SEEN BY 850 DEWPTS OF 8 TO 10 C INTO EAST TEXAS AND OK THIS MRNG. SFC DWPTS IN 50S E TEXAS SPRDG N. CERTAINLY PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. STORM SHD REALLY WIND UP TNGT AND SAT AND HEAD TWD SW IN BY SAT EVE. HEAVY SNOW BAND EXPECTED FM STL TO BRL NEWD TO RFD TO SBN. HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO BE THRU CNTRL AND NE IL WHERE AMOUNTS TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. SRN IL WILL SEE A MESSY MIX OF SNOW THEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...THEN MAYBE RAIN FOR A PERIOD LATE TNGT AND ERY SAT BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AND ENDING SAT EVE. VERY WINDY SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NGT AND SUN WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW...SEVERE BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS. COULD BE SOME LAKEENHANCEMENT SAT NGT AND ERY SUN FOR NE IL. LAKESHORE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR NE IL MAY NEED WARNING SAT. .CHI...WINTER STORM WARNING SRN IL TNGT AND SAT WINTER STORM WARNING CNTRL IL TNGT THRU SAT NGT GALE WARNING LM AND LS ALLSOPP

Since we are forced to live in the past in snowless times like these, here are some of the old discussions from NWS Chicago regarding the January 1999 storm. ILLINOIS STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 300 AM CST FRI JAN 1 1999 WHAT A MESS TO WALK INTO AFTER HOLIDAY LEAVE. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP, LOCATION OF ANY FREEZING PRECIP, CONVERSION OF WATCHES TO WARNINGS, SNOW AMOUNTS, AMONG THE CHALLENGES. MODELS NOT EXACTLY IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH NGM BECOMING THE SLOWEST, BY 6-12 HOURS, AT THE FAR END OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. SLOWER NGM ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO PUSH FARTHER NOTABLY NORTH AND WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE SNOWS (UPWARDS OF A FOOT) TOWARD CHICAGO. WHILE IT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN SINCE WE ARE STILL WAITING ON SYNCHRONIZING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER AVN AND ETA SOLUTIONS. THIS NEVER REALLY ALLOWS TEMPS AT ANY LEVEL OVER NORTHEAST IL TO GET MUCH ABOVE -10. EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL THREAT THEN SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE QUINCE-KANKAKEE TO BELLEVILLE-TERRE HAUTE CORRIDOR. AS DISCUSSED WITH PAH...THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ICING NEAR OHIO RIVER IS DIMINISHED EVEN WITH THE FASTER/COLDER ETA/AVN. HOWEVER AS COLD AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE, A SHORTER ICE EVENT REMAINS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN LATE FIRST PERIOD WATCH. SEE GREATER THREAT OF ICE FOR 50-75 MILES SOUTH OF ABOVE NOTED EXCESSIVE SNOW BAND. MANUAL HEAVY SNOW GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE...MAYBE JUST A TAD FAR EAST FOR TODAYS 4 INCH AMOUNTS. MANUALLY AND MODEL SUGGESTED TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS EXCEED A FOOT IN MUCH OF AREA MENTIONED ABOVE...BY TOMORROW MORNING SOMETIME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE SNOWS OCCUR...TO SEE SOME LOCAL 2O PLUS AMOUNTS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. WILL SUGGEST THIS IN WSW. TO SUMMARIZE WARNING/WATCH DECISIONS... WILL UP THE GOING WATCHES TO HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS IN WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND GO WITH 2ND/3RD PERIOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH ICE ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE. IF ETA-AVN VERIFY, ROCKFORD (ESPECIALLY) AND CHICAGO AREA MAY NEVER ACTUALLY VERIFY HEAVY SNOW, BUT WITH REMAINING UNCERTAINTY, WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED ACROSS THE NORTH. THANKS FOR COORD: PAH, DVN, ILX, MKX, IND, LSX. .CHI...WINTER STORM WATCH...NORTH AND PORTIONS FAR SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HEAVY SNOW/WINTER STORM WARNING...WEST CENTRAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY. EAST CENTRAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. KAPLAN

Or maybe not. LOT sent out an updated climate report and took away the 0.2"

Big news. 0.2" has fallen at ORD today, the first measurable snow in exactly 1 month.

If you're in IL/IN or anywhere else that has been struggling so far, the good news is that January almost has no choice but to be better than December. Better and good are not necessarily the same thing though. The last Nina January that was warmer than average across the region was 2012. Will we get a warmer than average January this time or can the cold show up and have staying power?

That was 2012-13, and it did break the record. It took until January 25 to get the first 1" calendar day snow.

That 10 day Euro snow map is almost too goofy to pan out like that.

After being in LAF for the GHD sleet fest, that 2/5/11 storm was a nice little surprise. One of the biggest model fails I can recall as the track literally came hundreds of miles north in the final 24-48 hours. I think there may have been some missing data when the ULL was down in Mexico as you rarely see such a large mileage shift that close in these days.

I feel like we did something like this not terribly long ago. Oh yeah. We did. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49711-chicagos-epic-snow-drought/