Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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Yeah, NAM with a giant middle finger to the colder models.
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See that zone of low snow near I-80 in the northwest corner of IN? That's me, and the difference between here and areas not too far northwest will be even more magnified in a couple days. I will pretty much be the most screwed spot of the I-80 corridor in the entire country. You can only hope it gets better. If not this year, then by 2025 or so.
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New Year's 1948 When history doesn't repeat, sometimes it at least reminds you of another time
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I am awfully, severely tempted to bump my earlier 1" call to 1.5". 2" would just be a bridge too far though.
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Sorry. Should thump pretty good. I'd just be cautious about the coldest scenarios given the raging LLJ.
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Hope it pans out. I do remember an event last winter (maybe January?) when it was a colder outlier and trying to give several inches of snow here. It didn't happen, the waa won out.
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Most of the LOT cwa is under a warning or advisory except far southeast.
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I'd think the more contagious variants may make total eradication harder.
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The trends are to put the worst of the ice storm in the western sub and farther west, even though that area is farther away from the core of the surface high.
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Good timing with people out and about for New Years (even if the numbers are a bit less than usual due to covid)
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With an 850 mb LLJ of 50-70 kts, I would not underestimate the push of warm air aloft. I'd be nervous on the southern edge.
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Gotta keep that backside changeover hope alive
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Ultimately I think most of the LOT cwa will be under a winter storm warning or winter wx advisory. The southern part of an advisory mainly accounting for some icing.
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Disagree. It has/had potential with a more favorable surface high position than Tue-Wed... outside of your backyard of course.
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Interesting trend on the last several Euro runs. There has been a slower system and more of an erosion of the low level cold, as depicted on the 925 mb temps valid 12z Friday. This makes the overall magnitude/areal severity of the icing setup a bit more questionable as you'd really like to see 925 mb safely below 0C (even a few degrees below 0C). Will be curious to see if the NAM erodes the cold layer as quickly as it gets in range.
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Vaccinations are running behind. They wanted 20 million vaccinated by the end of December. Won't even be close.
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12z Euro has the second storm northwest of Houston. I can't imagine that far west of a location is going to end well for most of the sub.
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Going off memory, it looks like a bit of a southward bump from 00z. Or it at least brought lighter amounts farther south.
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Yeah downtown hasn't had good luck with storms either. And the few storms that did jackpot areas south of the city were too far south, like south of Kankakee. I want an I-80 jackpot storm in northeast IL/northwest IN.
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Yes. Thanks.
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Getting a little old watching the n/w burbs of Chicago cashing in in recent years, while areas south of the city get less. Most of northern IL averages a similar amount of snow as me, except closer to the lake in northeast IL (like Waukegan area) but you wouldn't know it based on how storms have gone in the past few years.
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If the bar is set as the 8/10 derecho, I'm pretty sure the power problems won't be as bad in Iowa.
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Ukie is fairly far west with part 2.
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We needed the threat of the storm fading to add some drama. The ICON is on other end of the spectrum, pretty far north (I look at it now that we're within 5 days )
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For wave 1, thinking that I could manage about 1" before changing to mix and then rain to wash away whatever snow falls. Not supremely confident in that amount yet though. For the New Years part, I am very confident in it not being 100% plain rain. Even the least wintry scenario should at least start as a period of ice, but a snowier possibility is still on the table.
