Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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Would be nice if the layer of ice later on could sort of protect some of the snow from the warmup tomorrow. Not real optimistic about the snow surviving here but you guys north/west of Chicago should retain much of what falls.
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Looks like it's weakened just slightly.
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On the plus side, the big dog futility record would technically still be in play.
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Now to reel in a snowstorm on New Year's...
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Looked out the window a while ago and there was nothing. Looked again 5 minutes later and it was snowing steadily.
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Strange as it may seem, tonight/early Wed with S/SE flow may prove to be the better icing setup than late week in the core of Chicago... simply because the flow tonight will have a very minimal onshore component.
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Nice scene. Nothing here yet but looks like conditions will change quickly after onset.
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You have to go to western Missouri to find dews in the 30s, so yeah, evaporative cooling and increasing waa will be battling for a while until temps finally rise above 32.
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Back to your regularly scheduled ugly numbers as we come off of weekend/holiday.
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When I hear Bob Uecker, half of the time I think baseball and the other half I think of Mr. Belvedere. Streaks on the china, never mattered before, who cares When you dropped kicked your jacket, as you came through the door Dammit, now the song is in my head.
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Yes it does... especially if you are using a non-NWS one.
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It won't get real until the old Natester mentions 2/25/07.
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Wonder if the better icing may end up I-80 south. That is what majority of the guidance is hinting at with some exceptions like the NAM and GFS. In part will depend on how long precip takes to transition from sleet to freezing rain for the area north of I-80.
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Excluding things like freezing drizzle, can't recall experiencing many back to back icing events within a few days. Maybe once or twice. Even though amounts won't be huge, still kind of interesting/different.
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Alek life
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CFS is still warmer than average for January. Maybe the month can still be serviceable though, or at least part of it.
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Weaker system may ultimately cut down on qpf, but in a way that could be a more favorable setup for icing as a lower percentage of it would run off.
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Without actually doing a dprog/dt of models for the late week storm, it seems like there has been a shift toward a weaker/southeast track as it moves into the region. IF that ends up being the case, then in theory, it would blunt the warm air surge just a bit and result in the snow/ice precip types hanging on for a longer duration of time, especially if the surface high maintains the same strength.
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Has anyone out looked out west to see which models are handling the mixing line the best right now? I'd be more confident in discounting the NAM over its dry air issues than over its thermal profiles, but that is past experience talking because of how many times we have seen waa overperform. On any individual event, it's certainly possible for the NAM to be too warm aloft, and hopefully this is one of those times for you folks in the main snow band.
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Might not get here until next week if it keeps slowing down. Not too surprising I guess given the type of system.
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Won't argue with the idea that there has been stagnation in the progress of nwp, but I don't agree that the Euro was ever consistently great at 10 days out. You can pick out some individual storms and stuff that the Euro was strikingly accurate with but the overall model skill scores still suck that far out.
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Significant differences between the NAM and RGEM at 84 hrs/12z Fri. The RGEM is quite a bit colder at the surface and would be fairly ominous from an ice perspective. There is a lot of warm air flooding north though. It comes down to how quickly the sfc/near sfc cold layer erodes as that warm layer aloft gets warmer/deeper. Interesting to note on the NAM there is a fairly wide area where it is 32-33 degrees at the end of the run, so obviously any small changes could have important ramifications.
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Bingo. Thank you RC.
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Curious if RC has any thoughts on the NAM's saturation issues in the LOT cwa tomorrow afternoon.
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The NAM seems a little ridiculous at a cursory glance. The waa wing of precip seems underdone compared to all other guidance.
