Hoosier

That's what I'm saying. 31-32 is a bigger runoff concern in heavy rates. Runoff isn't really a concern at 28 unless maybe if it's a torrential downpour.

Regarding the freezing rain, something I am noticing on the guidance is that a portion of the higher precip rates happen while temps are around 28-30 degrees. Obviously that would make a difference in how much accretes as you can get away with some heavier rates at those temps. That is a verbatim read of the models though, so if it ends up more like 31-32 during that time, then more will run off.

Not anticipating anything weird to happen as we close in, but going to keep in the back of my mind that our upper low of interest is solidly down in Mexico. Sometimes you don't get all the data from there that you'd want into the models, which can result in rather dramatic changes at the last minute as it gets back into the US observation network. Again, not predicting that we'll see big shifts, but I am more alert to the possibility in this type of situation.

21z RAP is pretty icy.

Not saying the GEM will verify on the ice, but I think it ends up being more icy than what other guidance is suggesting. The rate of warming at the surface is gonna be really slow on the northern end, especially now with the weaker solutions looking favored. Plus we are in the dead of winter (at least on the calendar... not that it has felt winterlike a lot of the time lol) and around the lowest sun angle. Just one example... the raw GFS output has temps rising about 4 degrees here between 18z and 21z Friday. With E/NE winds and ongoing precip, that is nonsense imo. I bet the actual rise will be more like a 1 or 2 degree rise at most, and I'm confident enough that I'll come back and bump the post.

It is bone dry aloft on the leading edge, so I buy the depiction of a leading band of snow/sleet. Thermal profiles will be changing rapidly as the column saturates and WAA fights back so that may be why it's hard to see on the other guidance.

Some familiar dates on CIPS at 60 hrs. #1 is Christmas Eve 1997. I remember that one because it had the largest snowflakes I've ever seen. Some were literally like 2" in diameter if not more... almost looked like pancakes falling from the sky.

15z RAP Looking at forecast soundings in areas just north of the precip shield at 51 hrs, the entire column has wet bulb temps below 0C so would likely see a growing area of snow/sleet on the northern fringes just beyond this timeframe

Nice weenie band of evap cooling shows up nicely on the Ukie

Not completely sold yet but there's a scenario where the heaviest band of freezing rain actually happens to my south on Friday... A farther south track introduces the possibility of other precip types lasting longer. Also, a farther south track results in a slightly more onshore component to the winds locally off of a still relatively mild Lake Michigan, and the question is whether I'd be far enough inland to avoid that.

Just a couple inches. I wonder if the severe lack of snow around here this winter actually paid off with the ground/soil temps in this instance. They were able to get nice and cold since no snow was there to insulate. Before this system I had bare ground like every day except for one.

I cringe a little at SSW talk. Sure, it can help the pattern, but there is no guarantee it benefits our part of the globe.

Grass is showing but we are going to have some snow survive here. I was a bit concerned it wouldn't make it but temps are starting to drop and will be back below freezing this afternoon. I think a few things helped. One, the cold ground really didn't allow melting from below. Two, although temps/dews spiked into the upper 30s, it wasn't 40+ which some guidance had been hinting at (perhaps the snowcover actually helped to mute the warmup a bit... who knows). Three, there was a layer of ice on top of the snow to help slow the melting. I think the last one is a tricky balance though because if you get like 2" of rain, that is going to do a number on a small snowcover.

Watch out for a couple things 1) possibility of a thump of snow on the leading edge 2) the wave immediately following behind. Has a shot to be a little consolation somewhere.

Multiple sites in northern IL are reporting freezing rain with temps above freezing. I have noticed that before. Not sure why it happens. I wonder if it's more common when dews are a few degrees below freezing, which is the case right now.

Raining/freezing rain fairly hard now with breezy conditions. This would be trouble if it were a bit colder.

Getting some light freezing rain. Temp is right at freezing.

Here's a NAM forecast sounding from around here Fri morning. This is a pretty classic freezing rain look. The warm layer aloft in depth/magnitude is more than enough for complete melting of precip into liquid, while the near surface cold layer is rather shallow and not super cold. The obvious question is how long can the low level cold layer hold on? Eventually it should lose out (barring a significant shift southeast) and cause a flip to plain rain even while the sfc flow is east or slightly northeast, but I suspect it will be a laborious climb given the wind direction, time of year, and ongoing precip. Could envision quite a few hours of 32-34 degree temps.

RGEM=RDPS. Usually I call it by its old name but this time I called it RDPS.

Different setup, but it feels like deja vu with the 00z RDPS running colder/south with the late week storm.

Congressman-elect Luke Letlow has died from covid. He was only 41. https://www.wdsu.com/article/sources-congressman-elect-luke-letlow-dies-from-covid-19/35093657

Gotta figure out where the breakdowns in the system are. How much has been shipped out vs. how many people have been vaccinated? Is it possible that the low numbers of vaccinations are in part due to reluctance?

Interesting to watch the trends in the obs around the area this evening. As the precip lightened/moved out, temps have been creeping up but dewpoints have been creeping down. So as precip resumes, there should still be a little room to play with evap cooling wise as the low levels saturate again... until waa ultimately is enough to push temps above freezing.

Not bad. I know we were talking about the RGEM over there... it looks like the earlier runs had the heavier amounts too far south.

That particular dry slot was always on the sim radars. Not sure if the overall west/east progression of the system is quicker though.