Hoosier

Probably for the best.

For a minute I thought you bump quoted the whole thread after 12/15.

A little more on Chicago... The least amount of snow from January 16 onward is 2.8" in 1921. The most snow from January 16 onward is 57.6" in 1967, with a large contributor to that being the huge January 1967 storm. The way I came up with a final total of 25-30" at ORD is based on where things stood through 1/15, the overall look of the pattern for the next few weeks (which should favor more snow chances than we've seen so far) and a decent cluster of winters that have produced an additional 20-25" of snow from Jan 16 on... there are actually 30+ winters that fall into that group. That being said, that means there are 100+ winters that produced some amount other than 20-25" from January 16 onward, so I wouldn't be surprised if I bust low or bust high. The thing that would surprise me a lot would be if it rallies into a big season... say 50"+.

Are you saying you like this view better? Let's hope the map pans out as well.

IHME updated with 566k deaths by May 1. Daily deaths drop below 1000 after mid-March and down to slightly over 200 per day at the end of April. IHME has had trouble modeling the downside of the curve in the past, but obviously there's a difference this time with more and more vaccinations. Let's hope the numbers come down that fast.

Quite foggy outside. Had no idea until now.

Chicago is indeed still sitting under 6" of snow through January 15th. Average seasonal snowfall is 36.3", a target which might as well be a million miles away at the rate things have been going. By average snowfall, I mean first flake to last flake average, not just DJF. Don't hold me to it, but if I had to take a wild guess, I'd say ORD finishes between 25-30". Even that would feel like a monster rally given the dearth of snow so far.

The Norway story will get the anti-vax crowd going. There may need to be some rethinking on whether to give it to very frail nursing home residents. The thing is, IF what sounds like fairly typical vaccine side effects were enough to push some people off the cliff, what do you think covid would have done to them?

Could make an argument that this still isn't an all snow system. It rained yesterday and it's associated with the same surface/upper low.

Reports of 2-2.5" southwest of Chicago around Joliet.

Did DFW really only get a T of snow from that winter storm?

Getting tired of giving a platform for the silly nonsense. My natural instinct isn't to rush to muzzle people, but disinformation is a problem. If you don't engage, then there is no chance of changing someone's mind. If you challenge it, then at least there's a small opening. Obviously the twitters and facebooks of the world are grappling with this on an infinitely larger scale.

Surely we'd be seeing doctors, nurses, and other people whose occupations have required wearing a mask prior to covid dropping dead from lung cancer left and right. Anyway, there's a solution to any mask concerns. Go get the vaccine so things get under control more quickly and we can get rid of the mask mandates. But I have this strange suspicion that there is a lot of overlap between anti-mask and anti-vax people.

The heavier returns are fun. Noticed something interesting... the lighter returns seemed to have bigger flakes. The heavier returns were small-medium sized flakes but they were just pouring down.

These are the times that try weather weenies' souls.

Competing things at work going forward. The past couple times we were coming down from peaks in spring/summer. Now we will be trying to come down while the seasonality component still wants to hold us up, but this time we have the vaccines becoming more distributed with each passing day.

A couple Congress people have tested positive after getting the vaccine. At least one of them had both doses and then tested positive though last I saw was asymptomatic.

Obviously not taking this verbatim, but the idea of micro pockets of higher amounts seems plausible

Sounds like Cedar Rapids is returning to form.

100% true It is well-established at this point that being overweight/obese can result in worse outcomes for covid. But speaking more generally, being at a normal weight does not necessarily mean you are healthy.

Speaking of which, I miss Jonger snowmobiling posts.

Feels even better posting it in a winter thread.

Your first sentence about a wind component was something I didn't remember, so I checked the criteria for SQW. The wind criteria is not explicit like it is for a blizzard warning, but the visibility criteria for the SQW (less than 1/4 mile) is harder to satisfy without windy conditions. It would need to be puking snow.

Actually still have drought conditions south of the city.

He has been pushing the peak thing at various times for weeks. Here's a post from almost 2 months ago in reference to hospitalizations. If you call the peak enough times, one of those times you will end up being right. Hopefully we are actually peaking now. Angry's posts in this thread are only part of the issue though. I have gotten complaints from multiple people and have resisted doing anything, but my patience is running out.