Hoosier

Snow is gone here except for a little bit left in shaded areas. I need a glacier.

Yeah it's been a tough few years with medium range mirages. That being said, gotta feel optimistic about this being a good one, if not here then nearby. Also, when we have this model lineup with the foreign runs against the NAM/GFS, it sure seems like the foreign models tend to do better more often than not. That should be cause for optimism for those around Chicagoland and a bit north.

New poll on vaccine support shows more resistance in younger age groups and Republicans/people who voted for Trump. https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/less-40-percent-trump-voters-174038879.html Said it before, but it would be beneficial to see now former pres Trump get vaccinated on camera. Whether or not he has lingering immunity from being infected in October, it would send a message and may sway some people. Say we get to 50, 60, 70% of America being vaccinated. If there's pockets/regions of the country that are running behind the national average, then there's always going to be festering clusters of this thing. Gotta hope the variants don't start getting around the vaccines as well. I would think if the vaccines need to be tweaked in the future that they wouldn't have to go through all the trial phases again, but not sure.

It could be more of an enhanced vs pure lake effect thing, as moisture/inversion heights come down when the system departs. Whatever you want to call it, I think it could result in a few to several inches more snow near the lake compared to inland areas of IL/WI.

Re: lake enhancement on the western side of Lake Michigan Typically in these setups, you sort of take it for granted that there will be enhancement that starts on the western shore of WI/IL and then swings into Indiana and perhaps Michigan as the low level flow backs as the storm departs. But in this case, that is actually not being modeled. The low level flow does not back, which would mean that the lake enhancement/effect could keep going in some form on the IL/WI side even after the storm departs, though likely in diminishing intensity as the synoptic support is lost.

Probably a better shot at ice than significant snow in Indy. But even the band of ice could end up north...

One of the sources I use has lake temp of 46 out a mid-lake. Hard to believe it could still be that warm out at mid-lake even with the mild winter it has been, but if that's correct, then lake enhancement will play a major role. Even if mid lake is in the low 40s, that is still sufficient for a significant lake contribution.

Must have quite a spread in individual members with the mean struggling to have a band over 6"

Gotta say, this is probably the most subdued I've ever been after having a Euro run drop 18" imby less than 5 days out. Just too much time for shifting. The good news on the macroscale is that time is starting to run out for this to turn into a complete dud everywhere. Very likely going to be pretty big somewhere, just a matter of where.

GHD 2 made an appearance on the CIPS analog list this morning.

Noticeable thinning of the heavier snow band. Hopefully we can end up with something a little wider.

Obviously the snow aspect is the show stealer but not gonna sleep on the ice threat. And looks like there will be a wind component to enhance utility impacts.

Personally, I am 10 times more concerned about the heavy band being north of here than I am about it being south. It will either be I-80 or north of I-80 imo.

You realize you're going to have to move to Chicago if this pans out, right?

Just let it all out. Passion is good.

Will have to refine the details on location but this could be a pretty decent ice setup somewhere. The high to the north/flattish isobar look and struggle to gain much latitude could mean that particular precip type locks in for a prolonged period of time in a W-E corridor.

Something else to watch... there's the possibility of a nice lake response on the western end of Lake Michigan to add to whatever synoptic amounts occur. Not dealing with an extremely cold airmass by any means, but the warmth this winter has kept lake temps elevated. If it works out, the lake enhancement could easily tack on several inches.

Lots of grass sticking out around here and all the paved surfaces look clear. I think I had less snow than you though.

When I look at the op runs, ensembles, overall setup/realistic track window, this is perhaps the best synoptic potential in the LOT cwa in a good 5 years. Perhaps and potential being the key words though as there's still plenty that can go wrong.

For all the dispersion of the EPS suite, the band on the mean ends up in a very similar corridor as the op run.

Such confidence for a guy with like 5" of snow on the season. Just to note, you'll be held personally responsible if it doesn't shift to include mby.

23 degrees and the sun is absolutely torching the snow that was on the pavement.

Your post makes perfect sense, but still a scary look around here given we have seen some version of that kind of gradient around I-80 quite a few times in recent years.

The equator might have had a bigger snow event than we've had in the past few years.

Not me, lol Does look like at least a legit ice/snow threat around here with a lesser threat for plain rain.