Hoosier

Do the modeled Chicago crushers ever trend south at this distance (rhetorical question)

I think we will be pushing blizzard criteria in some areas, even if the ratios and thus blowing and drifting are held in check a little. There's a signal for a period of heavy rates, so even if the blowing is a bit muted, the rates may be able to do a lot of the work to get down toward/under 1/4 mile visibility.

A little skeptical of the model depictions that have it getting above freezing over 100 miles north of the surface low track (besides any possible marine influences), especially lacking an obnoxiously warm layer aloft that far north. Still have time to hone in on that though.

No, you aren't getting it. I've been giving you hints in recent days to shape up and you haven't. So enjoy your break from here.

You're gonna have to explain how Chicago got 23" of snow on 2.4" of precip in the January 1967 storm, with temps in the upper 20s/low 30s. Or you can ask our guest poster from the Boston area if the 4/1/1997 storm had a lot of arctic air there. Or look at any number of other storms in the Midwest, east, etc. Since you like talking, let's see your prediction for what totals will be in the maximum band. I'll go 12-18"

18z NAM should be north. Less suppressive influence in Canada.

I remembered the general model debacle from a few days out but I don't remember why it happened. Obviously something changed in the final few days back then.

Can't South Bend handle this amount of snow? You aren't South Beach.

16.2" fell at ORD 3 days later on February 1. Remember that?

Looking at the 12z Euro ensembles, there are a few misses to my south, but about 12 misses to the north. Overall, I am gradually becoming more optimistic. As far as what could go wrong, still definitely much more concerned about a miss north than a miss south.

Here was the 12z Euro from January 29, 2015.

This was the GEM run from 12z on January 29, 2015: The point here is not to predict what will happen this time around, but just to show that operational model(s) can and do sometimes shift in a large way in terms of placement/qpf, even at just a few days out. So, try to relax and just watch the model runs unfold. Whatever will be will be.

Lake Michigan is still mild enough that it's actually causing temps to be near freezing for a while near the western shore.

It sucks but that is pretty much baked in at this point.

Too much petty arguing and wishcasting. Knock it off.

Delta T would probably improve after that time, though 850s don't ever get too cold on the GFS. I'll say that the GFS has the lake signal on qpf plots, and it notoriously underdoes lake precip since it is a lower res model. That being said, there's a lot to sort out with the synoptic details yet before we can be too confident in its solution.

Sad news about Hank Aaron. Why am I bringing him up? On his twitter page, he posted a picture of himself receiving his first dose of the covid vaccine on January 5, and the story was reported on at the time. No cause of death has been released yet, and I don't know what his health was, but it will be important to find out why he died especially with being a high profile person and since there have been some stories of old/frail deaths after receiving the vaccine. People in their 80s die all the time though.

Kuchie Kuchie will make it better.

Only makes sense that both GHD storms would show up on there.

I'll say this. When I think back on the really big events in Chicago like 1967, 1979, 1999, 2011, 2015... they all hit this area with similar or just slightly less totals. So if this were to be a big dog rivaling those amounts for Chicago (big if... I am not predicting those amounts at this point!), then I would certainly take my chances here.

Not even gonna start getting excited until at least the 00z runs tomorrow night. If we're setting the bar at a shovelable/plowable snow, then I'm feeling that. The good news is that the 00z runs still have a big to major hit, just differ on the details. Near-blizzard conditions (if not outright blizzard conditions in some areas) and impactful ice are looking more and more likely.

It goes the other way too. There's people on this board like Don Sutherland where you go, "that guy isn't a met?" Anyway, congrats to him on the tag.

My way too early guess for ice would be for a band of 0.25"+, perhaps up to 0.5"... probably between I-80 and I-70. Not that entire area but somewhere between there. CIPS has decent support for several hours of freezing rain, and it's GFS based and may be underplaying. Plus looking at this setup conceptually, I see little reason why there wouldn't be a band of decent icing. It's a pretty typical look.

Hopefully areas farther south in the sub have some opportunities. Can't sugarcoat it though, it's a dangerous pattern.

Anyone think this will verify?