Hoosier

Mesoscale Discussion 0078 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the middle Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 191813Z - 192015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Potential for scattered strong/severe wind gusts will increase this afternoon in parts of the middle Ohio Valley. Though more marginal threats, a tornado or two and large hail may also occur. A watch is likely in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A compact shortwave trough is pivoting around the main upper-level low within the Upper-Midwest. Water vapor imagery shows this feature moving through central Illinois at present. At the surface, a broad area low pressure is present within the lower Great Lakes. A secondary cold front is now entering western Indiana with visible/infrared satellite indicating some gradual deepening of cumulus along the boundary. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 50s F and lower 60s F seem possible ahead of this activity. Even with these warmer temperatures than guidance forecast this morning, dewpoints have also mixed out into the low/mid 40s F. The net effect should should mean limited buoyancy of 250 to at most 500 J/kg MLCAPE. The primary concern with convection as it continues to deepen this afternoon will be strong to severe wind gusts. Storm motions coupled with 40-50 kts in the lowest 3 km (already sampled by KVWX VWP), will promote potential for wind gusts of 50-60 kts and isolated higher gusts possible. In response to the shortwave trough, some slight backing of surface winds has been noted in central Indiana. This trend should continue to the east as the wave progresses. As such, some potential for isolated tornado activity will exist. -25 C temperatures aloft could also promote marginally severe hail. ..Wendt/Grams.. 01/19/2023

A lot of insolation in much of the threat area.

Don't exactly have a lot of cold air around initially. But barring a radical change in evolution (like toward a cutoff), it looks cold enough for a good swath of snow wherever it may be.

Funny, I first thought this thread was for the weekend system.

Enhanced risk for wind is pretty impressive to see in an area where dews will be in the 40s.

Day 1 is out. imo, risk area should be expanded a little bit west in eastern IN.

I think I'm gonna start it.

Although been focusing on tornado potential, wind threat looks higher than what occurred in Iowa a couple days ago. Should have substantially more convective coverage this time and mode looks like it will get messy.

Thought I'd post this because, well, it's kind of cool. We could be talking about severe wx/tornadoes occurring near the 540 line. Not something you see everyday, and it is a reflection of how cold the low-mid levels are.

I believe

Took a look at tomorrow's setup, and I definitely think there is some tornado potential. Once again we are looking at marginal moisture (dews may actually remain in the 40s this time in the threat area, unlike Iowa where dews managed to surpass 50) but ample low level CAPE along with good shear. The HRRR/RAP are again more bullish than other models with dewpoints. Observational trends tomorrow will be key.

Omg it's gonna snow this weekend.

You missed the big fighting with Ohio in the past.

I'm sure you would've gotten to this one at some point, but there's no time to wait. The word must get out there. Lowest snowfall through 1/17: 1. 1.3" 2012-13 2. 2.4" 1912-13 3. 2.7" 1936-37 4. 3.4" 1889-90 5. 3.6" 1943-44 6. 4.3" 1901-02 7. 4.6" 1905-06 8. 4.7" 2022-23 8. 4.7" 2001-02 9. 4.8" 1982-83 9. 4.8" 1922-23

Oh it's been bad. I was just being sarcastic. Solid winter wx has been harder to find than cheap eggs.

Is this going to be an all-encompassing thread for Chicago records (snowfall, temps, precip) or just snow futility?

Even the all-time futility winter back in the 1920s had a snow depth over 2" by this point. Sad

You might have a stroke if you hang around this thread long enough. j/k

Exciting times Getting on some snowfall futility list prior to late January/February seems like it's becoming an annual occurrence.

Meanwhile yesterday 12z run was good for Chicago. Main thing I'm looking for is an active look for the sub. Don't want to see that evaporate. Details can be figured out later.

TT is very annoying. Would never use it in mixed precip scenarios. I've seen times when people have posted a TT map showing like 18" of snow in central Mississippi or something crazy like that. Without even digging in, you can pretty well assume that it's not all snow.

It's the throw crap at the wall pattern. Should remain pretty active overall. I'd be surprised if we don't score at least once.

I'd have to agree with this. When you think about it, what are the usual limiting factors for severe wx with northward extent at this time of year? Moisture and instability. A warmer GOM (on average) would tend to lead to better poleward moisture transport... and even small changes can make a difference in a severe setup. I don't think it's likely to result in January severe wx becoming really common north of 40N, but I'm gonna bet that it won't be 56 years until the next January tornadoes in Iowa.

DVN confirmed 2 tornadoes. This is only the 2nd January on record with a tornado in Iowa... the other being 1967.

CFS is much colder now at the end of Jan into Feb.