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Hoosier

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  1. Hoosier
    Given the modeled totals and good overall model agreement, this is about the highest confidence you can get in issuing a winter storm watch in the outer periods. Question is how far south they would place it since confidence drops off the farther south of I-80 that you go.
  2. Hoosier
    The South Africa variant has been detected in South Carolina. If it's in 1 state, there's a good chance it's in other states as well. The question is what the numbers are with these variants.
  3. Hoosier
    Good support for a period of 1-2" per hour rates. The timing of this for Chicagoland is such that people won't have a lot of time to get a head start on cleanup unless they want to be out there after 9 pm on Saturday. Then they will wake up in the morning to a big chore.
  4. Hoosier
    Will be fun when this gets in HRRR range. Of course be prepared for the possibility of it showing 40 degree temps up to I-80 on Saturday since it likes to overwarm the boundary layer sometimes.
  5. Hoosier
    I think that is a misread of the afd. They mentioned some mixing south of I-80, but that does not suggest mostly rain. Hell, the zone forecast for Kankakee county has several inches. It will be nice when this version of the GFS is put out to pasture.
  6. Hoosier
    Stout signal on the 6+ Pretty phenomenal clustering. Like you said, hard not to get excited around here.
  7. Hoosier
    At least this snowblower choker snow falls on the weekend. But still significant impact for anyone out in it. Or even if you're not out in it, there's gonna be some duress to the power grid.
  8. Hoosier
    This probably doesn't help.
  9. Hoosier
    Interesting looking gradient between PIA and BMI on the 10:1 map that was posted. Probably one of those things that wouldn't quite actually play out like that.
  10. Hoosier
    CIPS list fwiw
  11. Hoosier
    Hopefully the offices don't give it much weight for this storm. This isn't just a one time thing where it's an outlier and maybe you still give it some consideration... it is an issue that has popped up multiple times this winter.
  12. Hoosier
    Also worth noting the 925 mb winds of 40-50 kts in much of the snow area. May have trouble mixing that much but still probably looking at some 30-35 mph gusts.
  13. Hoosier
    I-80 does very well but a fairly wide snow band. Too bad it's not 3 hours away instead of 3 days.
  14. Hoosier
    If you only looked at the surface low and the thicknesses in the Plains, you may be thinking oh no, big cutter coming with warm air flooding way north. Really get bailed out by what's going on up north in Canada. Unfortunately it still won't be enough for some areas.
  15. Hoosier
    Getting some better inland penetration now, lol
  16. Hoosier
    I've always treated the Euro as basically just another global when it comes to lake effect... see whether it has a signal and then lean more on other guidance for details such as amounts and placement. Despite its performance this time, not sure I'd rely on it more than the CAMs over the long haul.
  17. Hoosier
    Just south of the area that starts out as snow, there looks to be a zone that will start as rain and then flip to heavy, wet snow. Expect rapidly deteriorating conditions.
  18. Hoosier
    Relative to climo, there is probably nobody in this thread who can beat my futility other than RogueWaves. Biggest snow here this season is just a hair over 2". I think this storm will beat it, and if it doesn't, it will be very tempting to throw in the towel on this winter lol
  19. Hoosier
    2014 had back to back double digit/near double digit storms.
  20. Hoosier
    NAM would undoubtedly be 12+ in the main band (even on non-weatherbell maps) if it went out farther. Still plenty of snow to go.
  21. Hoosier
    I think this is the same storm that that one GFS run had down to about 970 mb in Illinois.
  22. Hoosier
    If Brian D is making a winter storm thread, it probably ain't gonna end well for much of the rest of the subforum.
  23. Hoosier
    Advisory for lake effect was cancelled. Would be interesting to see why this underperformed, but I've pretty much moved on to the upcoming storm. I mean we knew the parameters weren't that great but the suite of CAMs were hitting on it.
  24. Hoosier
    Weren't you worried about a miss south yesterday? What is your biggest snow so far this season?
  25. Hoosier
    May be some heart attack stuff in the main band.
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