Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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Liking 7-9" locally. Maybe slight upside potential given the factors that have been mentioned by others but I'm not going to get greedy.
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Well, would think we'll see LOT pull the trigger on a winter storm watch with the overnight package. Great consensus on widespread warning criteria amounts and it should pound hard for a time. Main question would be whether they leave out the bottom tier of counties. Confidence probably a bit lower there than farther north but should still be sufficient enough confidence for a watch even there, imo.
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That March 1999 storm has been at #1 every time I have looked.
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Maybe April 10, 1997?
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The GFS is seemingly trying to rival the CRAS on its way out the door.
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I don't think so. As mentioned, the NAM is on the stronger side with winds. If it's too high, the actual outcome could be more like some 30-35 mph gusts. I suppose there could be a relatively brief period where it gets close with the winds and visibility, but close doesn't count and it needs to be at least 3 hours of frequent gusts 35+ mph / <1/4 mile visibility.
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Fo sho. It would be low vis/near whiteout even with more modest winds if those 2"+ per hour rates materialize near the leading edge.
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NAM/3 km NAM still more bullish on wind gusts than other models. Nice zone of higher 925 mb winds. Here's the 3 km gust product
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I am going to be honest with you. You kinda didn't make a great first impression with your posting style here. I don't think I am alone in that assessment. And now that you have a met tag, your posts should tend to be of higher quality than the average member. The standard is elevated for folks like you given your larger base of knowledge. You can help turn around how you are perceived by not getting into silly fights and improving your level of posting.
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You don't want to post the weatherbell kuchera map on LOT twitter? Transient higher ratios do seem like a possibility in the heavier banding. The event average would probably have a hard time coming in like that though in most of the snow area.
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So here's a little Chicago snowstorm climo. Officially, there have been 49 storms of 10"+ since records began. If you narrow it down to 12"+ storms, there have been 26 of those. If you narrow it down to 14"+ storms, there have been 12 of those. So historically... when Chicago has had a 10" storm, a little over 50% of those have actually reached 12" (26 out of 49).
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Going out on a limb with that one, lol I busted badly on the recent storm so am in need of a redeemer. All I'd say at this point is that I would be stunned beyond belief to come in under 6"
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Noticed the IND afd mentioned "higher impact storm" for that one next weekend. Didn't say winter storm.
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I realize there's a blend but that looks like 80% weighted toward the op GFS.
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Bam
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Just one model but I made a loop of the 850 mb low path on the 18z NAM. Nothing really out of the envelope here as far as track and weakening tendency with time.
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Let it go guys. Good rule is to not bump old posts that you know will cause a fight.
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Depends on how you define major. Been just about 5 years since my last double digit snow and about 3 years since a 6" snow.
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I'm gonna start calling weatherbell Kuchera the weenie Kuchera. Pivotal = regular Kuchera
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If only. It needs a lot of work to track south, especially south of us.
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Snow band would explode about 3-6 hours later
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Can you post the probability maps
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Has a shot to rank in my top 5 paste jobs if it pans out. March 1998 is gonna be tough to dethrone though with bonus points for the surprise aspect.
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NAM has some 40 mph gust potential, if not a tad more in some areas. GFS is probably about 10 mph less so either way, at least 30 mph.
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Seems like an outlier with such a heavy band that far south. Fort Wayne says where's my snow lol Nice avatar btw. May 30, 2004. Recognized it immediately.
