Hoosier

You offend our Detroit, Peoria and St. Louis friends. Why can't Jan 99 storms grow on trees?

Even the new 12z Euro is too warm in many areas. The ramifications of this would be less "wasted" snow early on as it should be able to get down to/near freezing more quickly in areas that are above freezing.

This is quite a look for February on the most recent runs. Of course you still have to line things up right. Theoretically, record breaking/bitter cold with a couple wet/mild cutters could also give an appearance like this. But still, you'd take your chances.

Seems like all systems go here. If there are any ptype issues at onset, I would expect it to last for minutes and not hours.

10:1 Euro map

Guess what dethroned 3/9/1999 on the CIPS list? 2/1/2015 Obviously the nature of the blocking is not going to allow for the snow to get as far north.

New thread

Part 2

Chicago WX will be panicking tomorrow watching the precip shield approach... guaranteed.

Incoming 3z RAP is slowing down precip onset a little. Alek mentioned it earlier but these types of setups often like to onset a bit quicker than models suggest, except maybe if there is a ton of dry air in place.

There was a system last winter where the RGEM was an outlier/more bullish on the southern end with snow through this area, and it lost out to the consensus. That one is stuck in my head... I took it personally It is interesting how it wants to paint that heavy band through IND. Anything is possible but it's pretty hard to take it seriously since other models really aren't even close to showing so much snow at IND.

Still snowing a bit around Chicago at the end of the run.

Hey HRRR, can you please fix your lake effect problem? Thanks.

This is interesting to consider. Say somebody got sick months ago. If they come in contact with the South Africa variant for example, how likely would they be to develop infection? Not really looking for an answer, just wondering out loud.

Even though what's going on Canada is helping keep the track rather flat, the antecedent airmass just isn't that great.

Early look at 00z HRRR suggests it may be north of the 18z run... to some degree.

IHME update has about 595k deaths by May 1. They added a new scenario, if you will, to their model, called "rapid variant spread." That scenario causes a bit of an increase in deaths to 620k by May 1.

Not gonna complain but hope some of the better banding can survive a little longer. Quite a tease around here on multiple models.

Israel a cautionary tale for how fast we can get back to "normal" in the US? World’s Most Vaccinated Nation Struggles With Virus Variants (Bloomberg) -- With more than 30% of its population vaccinated, Israel leads the fight against Covid-19. Yet the emergence of more infectious variants is overwhelming its hospitals, showing the long road ahead for the rest of the world. After inoculating 82% of Israelis aged 60 and more, going into a nearly month-long lockdown and shutting down the national airport this week, Israel is indicating the end of the tunnel may be further away. That dents hopes for a rapid vaccine-driven global recovery after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledge at Davos to make Israel a test case for how quickly Covid shots can help reopen economies. “We see a wave of infection that refuses to decline, apparently because of the mutation,” Health Minister Yuli Edelstein said at a press conference on Thursday. As the European Union fights to get adequate supplies of vaccines and the U.S. pushes to get more shots into arms, the Israeli situation is evidence of the difficulty of fighting a virus whose ability to quickly mutate keeps it a step ahead of efforts to contain it. People who have gone through the vaccination cycle made up 2% or less of those hospitalized, said Head of Public Health Sharon Alroy-Preis, adding that “they were definitely more protected.” Still, not enough people have completed the inoculation cycle to draw conclusions about the efficacy of the vaccine, Ran Balicer, head of the Covid-19 National Experts Team, said on Ynet television. The so-called British variant, 50% more infectious and possibly more virulent than the original virus, is to blame for the inability so far of the vaccination campaign and the lockdown to curb the spread, Israeli health ministry officials said. Although the vaccine is believed to work against the British variant, the mutation’s more contagious nature means higher infections and hence more hospitalizations. The health ministry’s main goal now is to bring down the numbers of the seriously ill who are overwhelming hospital wards and exhausting medical teams. The rate of infections in Israel has declined to just over 9% from 10.2% earlier this month, and people seriously or critically ill has stabilized at about 1,100. But the number of patients on respirators has hit a record, Corona Commissioner Nachman Ash has said. More than 4,600 people in Israel have died from the virus, and more than 7,600 people are being diagnosed with it daily. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/worlds-most-vaccinated-nation-struggles-with-virus-variants/ar-BB1dcbHR

Not gonna get hung up on the map changes from LOT. If there's that wide of a 6-8" area, there would likely be a zone of 8"+ in there imo.

Epic paste job either side of wherever the 32F line ends up. A little less pasty farther north.

I'm getting a Groundhog Day vibe from Natester's posts. And I'm not talking about the blizzards.

As far as the 2 snow maps from LOT, I may be wrong but I wonder if it's because the 8-12 map has a fixed legend. 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, 4-6, 6-8, etc. I never see them alter the ranges on that one. This event sort of falls in between 6-8 and 8-12.

It should rip like crazy there for a while. Can see it on the CAMs before some possible modest weakening of the band as it moves through the Chicago metro area. Even if you go drizzly for a time afterwards, the damage will have been done. You're good to go. Enjoy.

Kankakee looking good on the 12z Euro.