Hoosier

Nothing here yet but that is going to change very very soon.

We have VCTS at MLI KMLI 041801Z 20006KT 1 1/4SM R09/4500VP6000FT VCTS -SN BR BKN006 OVC013 01/M01 A2942 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE P0000 T00111006

One thing I'm looking at is how fast temps are dropping after it starts snowing. MLI is at 34 and it has been snowing there for an hour and a half, with similar readings in that part of Illinois. Btw, ORD has torched up to 38, so gonna take some extra work to cool off toward freezing.

I'll merge the 6-7 thread with this one if it looks like there will be less spacing in between. Still kind of unclear.

The forecast high here on Thursday is 35. Looking at this, I wouldn't be too surprised if we overachieve a bit prior to precip arrival. Some pretty mild air lurking upstream.

Ahh, thread overload, we're all gonna die.

A little more optimistic than yesterday since we're dealing with more of an elongated pressure trough into the afternoon and not the earlier rapid deepening sfc low (a good thing while you're still in the "warm" sector) but still enough concerns over temps that I'm hesitant to go beyond 2-3" here. If temps can end up just a tick colder, then could probably add an inch or maybe two to that.

Amazing to beat the previous record by 25"

This should really plaster the trees and other objects nicely around here. Curious to see what happens when the temps drop and the winds increase... does the snow freeze on the trees or does it start falling off.

Can see the difference in the 10:1 and Kuchera. The 10:1 looks good in the city and south, the Kuchera not as much.

Next thing to watch will be if there is any increase in cases after Super Bowl gatherings. When you think about who tends to attend Super Bowl gatherings, probably a disproportionately low percentage have already been vaccinated. On the other hand, perhaps a disproportionately high percentage of that group has already had covid.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 308 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021 .SHORT TERM... 307 PM CST Through Thursday night... A quick Bottom Lines Up Front AFD here, with a full technical discussion by 430 PM. The Winter Storm Watch has been converted to a Winter Storm Warning for Lee, Ogle, Winnebago, and Boone Counties, with a start time that`s been moved up slightly to 10 AM Thursday. While snowfall amounts have not materially increased in the warning (3-5" with isolated amounts to 6" possible), the combination of a period of rather heavy, convectively-driven rates coinciding with the afternoon/evening commute, rapidly increasing snow:liquid ratios and a likely period of fairly strong westerly winds gusting to 40 if not 45 mph by later Thursday afternoon and evening were concerning enough to warrant an impacts-based warning there. To the east of the warning, we`ve layered on a Winter Weather Advisory where slightly lower snowfall amounts (generally in the 2-5" range, although we`ll note a potential for overperformance given the impressive lapse rate plume with this system) and a slightly shorter window of stronger winds are expected to help mute impacts a bit more. Still, as it stands right now, guidance suggests that the Thursday afternoon/evening commute won`t be terribly pleasant, with a period of potentially heavy snowfall coinciding with the rush. Marginal surface temperatures near or even just above freezing may help blunt the threat for accumulation on the main thoroughfares (outside of heavier rates), but reduced visibilities, and the potential for sharply falling temperatures into the evening spells at least a non-zero potential for a flash freeze scenario where wet roadways remain. Think the threat for accumulating snowfall is more or less over by midnight Thursday night, but the threat for blowing snow will continue overnight and into Friday. Full technical discussion will be issued by 430 PM. Carlaw

And then the cold pours in

That's a fair point. Conditions look like they will be pretty similar in the advisory and warning areas.

RC said they are shifting more impact based, so with the wind/blowing snow/rapid temp drop factors, that may be why they went with a warning despite amounts generally staying under criteria.

Interesting. Seems like it's more of an impact based decision with the wind component since there doesn't look to be very many 6"+ amounts.

Would be getting into legit "where to put the snow territory" around here. Even accounting for some settling/compaction, that would result in depth I have never seen before.

Let's be clear. Temps tomorrow could be a bit of an issue, but using today to try to gauge what is going to happen tomorrow is not really useful. Totally different circumstances.

Can tell where the inversion is really hanging tough. 35 at ORD and only 21 in Kankakee lol

Just your classic look for accumulating snow in Chicago several hours later.

Was surprised that LOT didn't mention the heavy/wet nature of the snow in the afd. They are playing up the blowing snow threat but given the temp profiles aloft and marginal sfc temps, it sure looks like a wet snow until we get toward the end.

A rally for the ages if that happens. Even 98-99 took much longer to get to 50", which is right about where the final total ended up.

6z HRRR has some nice rippage for a while.

On another note, this one should really be a wet/low ratio snow for Chicagoland, at least until the tail end.

Even with the more favorable trends, I don't think I could go more than 2" here yet. Temps are just too marginal to feel confident in anything higher. If it absolutely rips for a few hours, then could maybe argue for more.