Hoosier

20 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Because the GFS is more of an outlier now, I'm currently leaning toward the foreign guidance to be more likely on the right track. The warning type event is less likely, but that may not mean a whiff (maybe ALEK was onto something haha).

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Something I noticed on the GFS... look how it's handling the wave coming into the northern Plains around the time that our southern stream system approaches.  The other models are more amplified with that, which may help explain the more generous precip distribution farther n/w.

1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

The closest I could get is 24hr 10:1 or Kuchera on pivotalwx. However it cuts it close on some areas catching everything 

Yeah.  Perfect would be a 36 or 48 hr map.

Not sure if any website has this capability, but can someone post a Euro snow map for the entire storm with this weekend's system subtracted?

16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Euro has more of a spread the wealth light to moderate snow event for many with a steady state low. Seems like the energy is really going into the costal transfer and ramping up a big nor'easter. But curious if we really will get the snow shield to expand that nw. 

I've seen way quicker coastal transfers than this.  It actually gets going pretty late... so late that it doesn't do anything for the big I-95 cities (inland track of the secondary doesn't help them either)

34 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Still have to wait on the Euro for our final 12z operational data point, but did want to note that the foreign models (12z GEM and UKMET and 00z Euro) have a more expansive precip shield with light to moderate snow accums farther north. The GFS has the sharp NW cutoff that's seemingly more common in these setups.

This is despite relatively similar surface low tracks and mid and upper level depictions. There's probably another physical reason beyond this, but simplest way to see the difference is that foreign models have much higher 850 mb RH farther north than the GFS.

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It does seem a little strange that the GFS doesn't bring some light precip farther north.  The mid level features don't seem prohibitively far south.  Also don't really have a robust surface high to dramatically reinforce/suppress the northwest end of the precip shield.

8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

DAB our my way. Northern cutoff will be brutal. 

 

At this point I pulling for futility, this winter has been hot garbage 

Even if this one doesn't produce much in northern IL, you know that the big dog futility record won't be broken.  Pattern looks too active going forward and lighter events add up.

What we're all waiting for is final call time from Alek.  Should get it tomorrow one would think, though weekend casts some doubt.

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not to suggest that this event is going to be anything more than a DAB+ sort of deal, but think that the relative "dryness" of model runs and tick back up from 18z Euro is mostly related to guidance struggling with the rather nebulous forcing in this setup. Good proxy is 850 mb and 700 mb RH, which haven't changed much on the Euro and the global models in general. If you have saturation down to 850 mb and 700 mb is saturated with enough lift, it's usually gonna snow, putting amounts aside.

I think the wonkiness of the NAM is two-fold: struggling like the other guidance with the forcing mechanisms and also having an issue related to its convective scheme parameterization that I think causes it to hold onto insignificant dry layers for too long. This will be the case more often in modest vs. strong forcing. And since the 3km NAMnest is run from NAM initialization, the dry air issue will carry over. This is probably the case too for the other CAMs running off the WRF core. Also, the RAP and CAMs are inherently less reliable farther out in their ranges.

While it's quite possible/probable some areas only get a light dusting, I'd be surprised if there's areas that literally don't snow as implied by runs with 0 QPF response. Otherwise, for eastern IA and Northern IL, thinking 1-2" amounts still attainable, probably not localized up to 3" anymore though.


 

Do you think a blanket 1-2", or would you favor the s/se LOT cwa for those amounts?

It's too bad that the airmass with this system isn't colder.  Southern Lake Michigan water temps are running around mid 30s near the shore to about 40 farther out in the lake, which seems to me like it's probably warmer than average.  It looks cold enough to get some lake enhanced precip going, especially later on in the storm, but this is not likely to be a big contributor to totals along the western shore.  

Non-globals like the NAM/HRRR/RAP seem to have better snow farther south in LOT (though still light)

Looks like they fixed the afd.

Like where did that even come from though?  Strange

Corrected a couple small errors.  Overall, doesn't change the picture.

On 1/18/2023 at 1:02 PM, Hoosier said:

Lowest snowfall through 1/17:

1.  1.3"  2012-13

2.  2.4"  1912-13

3.  2.7"  1936-37

4.  3.4"  1889-90

5.  3.6"  1943-44

6.  4.3"  1901-02

7.  4.6"  1905-06

8.  4.7"  2022-23

8.  4.7"  2001-02

9.  4.8"  1982-83

9.  4.8"  1922-23

Rolling these years forward, here were the final snowfall amounts for each.  Pretty ugly overall, with every year finishing with below average snowfall.  

Doesn't mean that this year's total has to fall within this range, but it gives a sense of where the goalposts have been.  If there is one positive, it's that the two years in the 2000s rallied the most to break 30"

30.1"  2012-13

19.1"  1912-13

12.0"  1936-37

21.7"  1889-90

24.0"  1943-44

19.0"  1901-02

20.6"  1905-06

????   2022-23

31.1"  2001-02

26.6"  1982-83

21.5"  1922-23

ORD needs 0.3" to reach 5".  Can we do it?

With this multi-year run of Ninas, was thinking about what the next big Nino could be like.  How warm could it get?  The strong/super Ninos have a return rate of about once every 10-15 years.  Last one was 2015-16, so good chance we'll see it again sometime in the next several years.

Of course some may argue that this winter has seemed like a Nino.  

7 hours ago, Baum said:

What should be non thread worthy by mid January will be a  the most widespread general snowfall for some in our winter of discontent. Here's a taste of some local weather offices takes:

LOT:

 BUT THE MESSAGE REMAINS   
PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR A GENERAL 1   
TO MAYBE 3 INCH TYPE EVENT FOCUSING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

Quad Cities:

SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE   
POSSIBLE NE OF THE QCA TOWARDS ROCKFORD. BUMPED POPS UP, WITH LIKELY   
POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OR SO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

 

Peoria,IL:

ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. 

 

Fort Wayne, IN:

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED  
TO BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH FOR THIS EVENT, BUT TRAVEL  
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

Toledo, OH:

THIS WOULD AMOUNT TO APPROXIMATELY 1-2"   
OF SNOW AREAWIDE WITH UP TO 3" LOCALLY, 

Milwaukee, WI

KEPT PRECIP CHANCES LARGELY 50 PERCENT OR LESS GIVEN LOWER   
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. THE WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY 1-3   
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST   
AND LESS TO THE NORTHWEST.   

 

Kind of tricky to pin down where highest amounts will be in LOT cwa.  Guidance is all over the place.  Some stuff pointing south, other stuff farther north.

5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

GEM more like "Best model ever"

Believe it or not, I'd rather have that model on board with something than the GFS.  

Still too early to be too confident in any particular outcome though.

Yeah the no votes are looking good.  

Probably just jinxed it.  

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

If the pieces come together right, the air mass gives vibes of Feb 24, 2016 - think lower ratio and needing to be in the heaviest banding for good totals. Obviously don't want to repeat that nightmarish gradient in the Chicago metro, though for the areas affected, that was probably a top 10 event since 2010.

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Was on the good side of that gradient and would certainly put it in the top 10 since 2010.  

Snowfall to date:

MSP:  52.5", ORD 4.7"

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

Factual, I think around here GHD II came very close in terms of total snowfall but the duration was longer and the winds were much less extreme. I remember parts of GHD vividly -true core memories- like no other snowstorm despite it being the earliest big storm I can remember.

You should've been on here for GHD.  To this day it is still my favorite event to track on here, even though the outcome at my then-location was not what I was looking for.  The level of excitement and enthusiasm was fun.    

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

but are you though?

No, more like 10 times.

Overall though I think I/we sit in a decent spot at this point.

SPC meso discussion alluded to this

Mesoscale Discussion 0079
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0239 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

   Areas affected...Northwestern/north-central Ohio

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26...

   Valid 192039Z - 192215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong/severe wind gusts are most likely in parts of
   northern Ohio over the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Strong mixing has lowered dewpoints across southern
   Ohio to the low/mid 30s F. Farther north, a longer duration of cloud
   cover has sheltered the area from mixing. Dewpoints in northern Ohio
   have remained in the low/mid 40s F. Observational trends indicate
   that the strongest portion of the frontal convection has been where
   dewpoints are in the mid 40s F. Though forcing from the shortwave
   trough will remain moderate/strong, it appears that the greatest
   threat for strong/severe wind gusts will be confined to where these
   greater dewpoints are in northern Ohio.

   ..Wendt.. 01/19/2023

The trajectory of this event is looking questionable to say the least.  Mentioned the ample insolation earlier.  I think it may have actually been a little too much of a good thing, because it has contributed to dews mixing out into the 30s/low 40s in much of the area.  From an instability perspective, the warmer temps at the sfc may not be enough to fully compensate for that drop in dews.

31 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Yikes 

I'm about 1000 times more afraid of a miss south than a miss north.