Hoosier

Yesterday's snow is sticking around well on untreated/uncleaned paved surfaces even with the sun beating down. February sun angle can only work so much when it is barely above 0.

It happens but it is uncommon. Only about 10% of Chicago winters have failed to produce below zero temps since records began. The last time a winter didn't go below zero was 2011-12.

First below zero temp for ORD. Fun fact... it is the coldest first below zero temp at ORD since March 4, 2002, when it got to -7. Yes, March 4 was the first (and only) below zero reading in the winter of 2001-02.

So about the GEM.

Agree. Starting out as enhancement before transitioning to pure lake effect. 850s are cold, but not extreme cold to where there would be no dgz to work with. They are sort of in the sweet spot and I would expect some nice overlap of omega in the dgz. Certainly looks like a setup capable of producing several inches on the western shore from the combination of whatever system snow occurs + lake effect.

When I was looking at forecast soundings over the past couple days, there was a decent amount of omega in the dgz, but there was a decent amount above it as well. I'm sure the better banding has higher ratios but unfortunately it's not that surprising to see reports of struggling ratios. I also wonder if the dgz has been able to saturate all the way because the NAM at least was suggesting a potential problem.

The 10 day weeniebell kuchera map must look ridiculous.

Any idea on liquid equivalent out there? Are ratios performing as expected?

I extended the other thread to the 12th. I like having separate threads for stuff, so I don't want to discourage that practice, but there comes a point where it can get confusing when there are overlapping dates. This subforum spans a lot of territory from west to east and sometimes we'll have a system still going in the eastern part of the sub on the same day that the next one is coming into the western portion, as we're seeing in this pattern. Don't want to get into a habit of having storm threads with overlapping dates.

Given the close temporal aspect between the snow on Sunday and Monday, an executive decision has been made to use the thread below for the snow starting late Sunday morning/afternoon.

No, it's this one. I'm all for creating new threads but it has gotten a little overboard. May need to extend the dates on this one though.

Lol, like that won't cause confusion. I'd rather see any Sunday PM posts in the Feb 8-9 thread, since that is sort of a forerunner. I'd have to change that thread to Feb 7-9, which would mean we'd have 2 threads with Feb 7 in the title... not ideal, but times are tough.

Safe bet. I think DC has had a similar number of 12"+ storms as Chicago, but don't quote me because it was something I heard many years ago and it may have been 10" and not 12" storms.

Little streak of snow comes eastward Sunday PM. I am teetering on whether to perform the great thread merge of 2021.

Curious to read the reasoning on that placement. Like, I don't think there would be much less here or in Chicago compared to Kankakee.

LOT went advisory. Somewhat limited placement though generally south of I-80 and not including any counties in IN.

You would think qpf would be better with the progged respectable frontogenesis. At least gives some hope for things to end up wetter than the NAM and other dry models.

Hopefully the 21z RAP comes in on the wetter side too. Would help boost confidence toward a higher end advisory scenario.

There's always going to be people out there who deny the existence. It is particularly insulting to those who have died/become very ill and those of us who know someone who falls into that group. There's room to debate best policies on how to deal with all of the effects of the pandemic, but ffs, don't deny its existence.

Slight change 00z to 12z

fwiw, Indianapolis has had 3 occurrences of 75+ in February and 6 occurrences of a high of 2 degrees or colder in February. So they are both really rare and wouldn't be wise to bet on well in advance.

Good time to pull this out Hopefully it can trend to something decent. Otherwise this stretch runs a risk of being a little underwhelming.

Do you have any concern about the NAM lacking a bit in saturation of the DGZ tomorrow?

That is on qpf of generally 0.1" or less in the LOT cwa. I'd rather not rely on 30:1 or higher ratios. Would like to see more precip.

If I have to be critical about something, I wish we had a better lineup of omega throughout the DGZ (a substantial amount is in it, but also a substantial amount outside of it) but overall it's a good look for nice ratios. 20:1 or bust