Hoosier

I would say I had dust in the wind, but there isn't much wind to speak of.

We might've been talking rainer here if the lobe to the north wasn't there/moved out quickly. Obviously can have too much of a good thing to where it suppresses this too far south. Anything is possible but generally speaking, I like the chances of a noteworthy storm in the sub. I see more than one way to get there.

One time of posting that stupidity wasn't enough? Almost 60,000 people have died in just the 20 days since the new administration took office, which is very close to the number that died in the 20 days before that. Somebody still "inflating"?

I like how we're not necessarily depending on a good phase to get a significant storm. It is more about whether our wave of interest will have enough room to do something and not get squashed. Certainly will be watching key features in the northern US/southern Canada.

We had 40:1 ratios around here a couple days ago, and it wasn't even lake effect snow... very cold airmass with a nice frontogenesis band with good omega in an extraordinarily deep DGZ.

H8er

This is it

The last time ORD had a 20" snow depth was in February 2011. Does this storm set the table to get there?

I see both sides of this. Not a fan of an information blackout, even if you are talking about very rare 1 in many hundreds of thousands or 1 in a million type of reactions. I don't think people should have to find out about it at the last minute when they go to get the vaccine. On the other hand, there is a danger in overreporting that kind of stuff and making it out to be a common thing. The media coverage on the more serious side effects has been fairly reserved from what I have seen. There are articles but it's not a dominant news story.

Went back to my other post and added the final snowfall total for each of those years. 1938-39 and 2004-05 largely shut down after early February in the snow department, while 1998-99 and 2014-15 did better.

Note that 4 of these historic types of turnarounds have happened within the last 25 years. Could simply be good luck or perhaps there is a reason that a super slow start is not quite the death sentence that it used to be. Can speculate as to why.

Can the Johnson & Johnson vaccine be modified as quickly to address new/emerging variants? I thought I heard that it would take longer to adjust than Pfizer and Moderna but not sure.

To state that the turnaround in snowfall at ORD has been impressive would be an understatement. Few winters that started off as slowly as 2020-21 turn around so dramatically so quickly. A few other similar turnarounds are listed below. The 2020-21 change is even more impressive imo because it has been done without an ultra big dog storm on the scale of what occurred in early January 1999 and early February 2015. 2020-21: Snowfall through 12/31: 3.5" Snowfall through 2/9: 32.5" (Final Snowfall total: ???) 2014-15: Snowfall through 12/31: 2.9" Snowfall through 2/9: 36.7" (Final Snowfall total: 50.7") 2004-05: Snowfall through 12/31: 5.7" Snowfall through 2/9: 33.9" (Final Snowfall total: 39.4") 1998-99: Snowfall through 12/31: 1.2" Snowfall through 2/9: 30.8" (Final Snowfall total: 50.9") 1938-39: Snowfall through 12/31: 3.7" Snowfall through 2/9: 28.4" (Final Snowfall total: 33.9")

I noticed the February F6 for ORD is way off. It's showing 13.3" of snow this month when in reality there has been 7.0"

Next week is mine

I feel like it's best to take ratios on a case by case basis. Being locked in a cold pattern doesn't guarantee great ratios every time. It was only 3 days ago that a system generally underperformed on ratios. Yesterday's snow had outstanding ratios, but you probably wouldn't want to bet on 30:1 or 40:1 or better happening over and over. Even 15:1-20:1 would be nice though.

Pivotal Kuchera, Weatherbell Kuchera or both? Still, not as widespread of an event as other 12z runs.

Looks decent at this point though I'll feel better in a day or two.

Well it's not definitively tied to the vaccine in the link that I posted, but it's hard not to think that it set something off in that individual. To get the vaccine and collapse 25 minutes later and then die is extremely coincidental if it's from something else. How old is your wife's great aunt?

Amazingly bad fortune https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2021/02/08/investigation-underway-after-elderly-man-died-shortly-after-receiving-covid-vaccine-at-javits-center/

Man, roads are an absolute disaster. This type of cold doesn't help but I didn't see any plows out. At all. Very fluffy stuff. Reminds me of some lake effect events.

Why aren't you respecting the block? All snow all the time at IND, until July.

There comes a point where the hashtag is just too long.

Clever if they worded it like that. Anything from 0-8" can be right.

The wild card going forward. They think the UK variant is at relatively low levels in the US right now. At what point does this slow the declining numbers or even lead to a rebound? U.K. coronavirus strain is doubling in the U.S. every 10 days, study finds https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/07/uk-coronavirus-strain-doubling-in-the-us-every-10-days-study-finds.html