Hoosier

00z HRRR coming in with a stripe of 6" around I-80 in northeast IL/northwest IN.

Forecast high in Dallas on Monday is 17. Yikes. Could even make a case for it ending up a bit colder, especially if the midnight high isn't a problem. Btw, even though it's out of region, feel free to post in our Feb 14-16 storm thread.

The mid to late week system seems promising. Could be a nice overlap area somewhere around here that gets in on all of these systems starting with the one tomorrow.

Raid the stores Houstonians Inland Harris- Including the city of Houston 429 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 .SUNDAY NIGHT...Light freezing rain, snow and sleet in the late evening and overnight. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent in the evening increasing to 80 percent after midnight. .WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Mostly cloudy with light freezing rain, snow and sleet in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of light freezing rain, snow and sleet in the afternoon. Snow and sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Colder. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent in the morning decreasing to 40 percent in the afternoon.

I haven't looked at the skill scores but anecdotally, the GFS seems like it has been struggling a lot, whether it's thermal issues or some other aspects of a system. We are seeing it again on the system for tomorrow/Saturday... it still can't figure that one out and it is like 24 hours away.

I know someone who is late 60s and had a heck of a time trying to schedule an appointment to get the vaccine. Had to make multiple attempts, and finally got in for the middle of March. I know the process takes time to reach all age groups but come on. It should not take that long for someone who is almost 70.

Tulsa, Oklahoma has an advisory for lake effect snow. Yeah, you read that right. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Tulsa OK 215 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 OKZ060-061-064-121200- /O.NEW.KTSA.WW.Y.0004.210211T2015Z-210212T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KTSA.WC.Y.0001.210212T0900Z-210212T1800Z/ Tulsa-Rogers-Creek- Including the cities of Tulsa, Claremore, and Sapulpa 215 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch. Very cold wind chills expected late tonight into Friday morning. Wind chills as low as 10 below zero. * WHERE...Tulsa, Rogers and Creek Counties. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 AM CST Friday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 3 AM to noon CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions along the lake effect snow band. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Frost bite and hypothermia are possible if precautions are not taken late tonight into Friday morning.

No thanks, this 110 foot driveway is enough shoveling for me. At least the last couple rounds have been light and fluffy.

4-5" seems like a pretty good bet here. Let's overachieve and get 6" though.

Don't have access to Euro forecast soundings but it again looks like an extremely deep DGZ around Chicagoland from near the surface all the way into the mid levels. Can't see omega either but if it is lined up nicely in that growth zone, then you could easily imagine 20:1 or 30:1 type ratios out of this setup. I'd hesitate to suggest higher without knowing more... also this type of system origin is not necessarily known for producing bonkers high ratios, but we could be dealing with an exception this time.

Could have ridiculously large coverage of winter warnings and advisories for this one. Possibly all the way from the Gulf coast to the Lakes.

Remember earlier in winter when systems had marginal cold air

Gonna have crazy snow depths around the area if this next week or so of systems pans out. 3", 6", 8" snow depth is kind of all the same to me, but if we're talking around 2 feet or more, yeah, bring it on.

From what I can tell, 0.5"+ qpf for Chicago with a nice lake enhancement signal.

Punt at your own risk.

Canadian has a lot more confluence hanging back. Possible, but seems like a bit of an outlier solution at this point.

It's already out that far? What website?

Could be a nice lake enhanced setup for the western shores of Lake Michigan as well, assuming system snow makes it in. 850s should be quite cold at least.

^You two probably want it where it is right now. Bigger risk of you ultimately sweating precip type than a whiff south, imo.

It is 10 degrees with sleet in central Arkansas at 108 hrs on the GFS. Low level cold means business.

It is in the single digits in MI and northern IN while this is occurring. Could be a really cold system on the nw flank even though it is coming out of the Gulf.

Why'd you pick that frame to post lol? Later on looks more normal. Pretty good to be snowing in Saginaw while the surface low is on the Gulf coast. Doesn't pay to get into those kind of details but hopefully this can be a spread the wealth system.

00z NAM looks decent. On a personal level, I hope it's a bit too far north.

Amazingly identical to the 12z run posted by you farther up the thread, lol

Probably nobody remembers this but "potential system" is the same wording I used initially in the thread title for the end of January system, before editing it as the storm closed in. Sometimes you gotta go with superstition.