Hoosier

Subtract a little bit for tonight/Saturday, but that's a hell of a signal for a global model and considering what overall ratios are likely to be in the synoptic and lake effect, this verbatim is probably the 18+ scenario.

While I don't have the courage of Alek to come out with an exact number, I do like 6"+ here. I also think somebody in the LOT cwa will see double digits out of this... the synoptic alone probably won't be enough to get double digits that far north so it may need to be the synoptic/lake combo, which would mean somewhere in Lake/Porter and possibly the Illinois shore. If the lake effect stalls out for a long time and goes crazy, then you couldn't rule out isolated amounts of 18-24" somewhere in those counties. That is a high end/low probability scenario though.

Will be curious to see if LOT pulls the trigger on a winter storm watch for Lake/Porter with the overnight package or later tomorrow to account for the rather solid lake enhanced signal. Then perhaps it's advisory for a good chunk of the cwa for Sun-Mon, especially since the roads will probably be sh!t with such cold temps.

Snowing lightly

Speaking of lake effect dream. This is just to 12z Mon. Band is pointed toward Lake county IN at end of run.

Considering the aggressiveness of the HRRR with lake effect/enhancement this winter, it'll be interesting to see what it does with this one when it gets in range.

Hope so. I am a little paranoid about the band hanging to my east and then shifting westward through here more quickly than I'd like. Also some indications of mesolow development which can screw with things. I only wish we had this setup a month ago. Would've been talking about even higher Delta T values with that good dgz/omega overlap.

Just to touch on this again. I have been thinking about it and am struggling to remember the last time that a lake enhanced event on the southern/western shore had ~20-22C delta T in place for basically the entire duration of the synoptic system. I'm sure it happens every once in a while but it's far more common to see that toward the tail end of a system as CAA kicks in. Some models are stingy with the inland penetration of the band but the boundary layer flow looks good enough to get it at least several miles inland imo. At least I hope lol

Houston is under a winter storm watch.

RGEM actually whiffs me to the northwest through much of Sunday. Nice plot twist.

Now somebody post the Pivotal Kuchera for the Euro.

LOT just briefly touched on the lake enhancement/effect potential in the afternoon afd. The thermodynamics would support 1-2" per hour rates in the heart of the band imo. If we had higher inversion heights, then I think it would be one of those that would be capable of 3-4" per hour rates. But it's hard to envision those kind of rates with the somewhat limited depth of the mixed layer.

How is the Chicago shoreline temp being reported as 38? Gotta be erroneous right?

Everybody near the IL/IN shore has high bust potential depending on the band behavior/placement. I think a case can be made that the LES gets spread around on both sides, starting in IN and then migrating to the IL shore as winds gain a more easterly component.

The delta T is pretty high end for an enhancement setup... talking 20C or even a bit more. Also, that 20C+ delta T is in place for the entire time, not just coming in as the low pulls away as is often the case. Gotta think this will deliver for somebody.

Here's a forecast sounding from southern Lake Michigan at 84 hrs. Nice omega (pink lines on left) overlay in the dgz. From a delta T perspective, I don't remember another setup with this good of a delta T on the western/southwestern shoreline this winter.

Nice looking lake band on the extended range NAM. A couple negatives of the setup are nearshore ice (still plenty of open water though) and fairly modest equilibrium heights. Delta T is very nice though with nice omega right through the dgz. If this band can be a slow mover, which looks plausible, it could pile up pretty nicely.

No first/final call yet? We're well within 5 days.

Pretty nice spread the wealth on the 00z Euro. Lake is a wild card but between that and synoptic, I like my chances of getting several inches from this one.

Sorry for Spartmaning the thread, but lol Louisiana

Ukie still looks fairly respectable.

Welcome The bar is low for the GFS... and I'm mainly talking about how far northwest it snows.

I think there's a good chance of that with northwestward extent. Could end up with less good ratios around your area and areas south/east due to some mid level "warmth"/less deep DGZ, but probably still better than climo.

Short and sweet

I'm gonna say the 00z NAM will have a better look than the 00z GFS. Prove me wrong GFS.