Hoosier

Yeah just beat me. Throws precip significantly nw of 18z.

I'll take the over. Northern Porter got 6" today on parameters that were significantly worse than what we'll have coming up. The only way it fails imo would be if the band unexpectedly stays offshore.

I'd pay some cash to get the 00z HRRR to verify. About a foot of snow here and still ripping at 48 hrs.

Just be careful with the weatherbell kuchera maps... they are prone to overinflating. The exception may be in areas of lake enhancement since that is more of a mesoscale thing and if anything may underdo it there with such focused omega in the dgz.

So I looked at 1/21/2014 in more detail. With the caveat that I can't get an archived forecast sounding from over the lake, just looking at a couple RAOBS and reanalysis maps at 850 mb and 700 mb, it seems like inversion heights back then would've been fairly similar or maybe just a little higher. That makes me even more confident that this band could really rip as a number of the other parameters line up similarly to the 2014 event. I think it's very likely to produce 1-2" per hour rates and wouldn't dismiss the possibility of some 3-4" per hour rates at peak organization.

Should have no problem making the fence completely disappear by Monday

Right before I moved here. I took a quick look at that event the other day and Delta T's were similar. Not sure how the other parameters compare though. I know that 2014 event had 4-5" per hour rates around Griffith. Usually you're gonna need pretty good inversion heights to get rates like that.

I think I got spoiled by that early trigger on the late January system.

Can I lock in the 21z RAP, oh please.

Yeah I think a watch could've been justified for Cook, and certainly for Lake/Porter given the earlier onset of the lake band there (really just about 30-36 hours away now), although it is starting to look more like a Cook/Lake IN favored setup and maybe a little less threatening for Porter, but who knows with this type of thing.

I had to do a double take when I saw that the forecast high in Houston on Monday is 20 degrees. The afternoon temp not be what goes in the books though as they may get midnight high.

No watch with the afternoon package and no mention of entertaining one in the afd. Do not pass go, do not collect $200

Isn't the tweet saying that the surface high is weaker than progged? Let's at least get the tweet correct, whether or not you think it will matter.

I think northern Porter coming in with 6" last night and today is a good sign, because delta T this morning was not as high as it will be coming up. One knock on this setup is the relatively modest inversion heights, but most other parameters check the box and it should be ripping fatties with the good co-location of omega in the dgz.

Have picked up a little under 3". Depth is really getting impressive now.

Don't know if this will actually happen but if it were me, I'd go winter storm watch for Lake/Porter with the afternoon package... would be mainly for the northern parts of the counties. There's more time to decide about what to do with Cook county.

Still liking the possibility of double digits near the lake in the LOT cwa. RegionRat may be in a favored spot but really anybody from around downtown Chicago over to Porter county is in the game.

Multiple reports of 5-6" in northern Porter county. This bodes well for the upcoming setup as lake parameters only get better for the 15th-16th.

Have spent like 2 minutes on this setup but one thing about it is that not having that PV lobe nearby to the north, it seems like more of a risk to end up north of the Feb 14-16 storm. Not that it would automatically result in that outcome, but it's a possibility.

Pushing 2 feet... should be no problem.

It seems like every storm trips GHD 1 or GHD 2 at some point in the analogs nowadays.

Some decent banding just south of here. Can also see the lake enhanced band charging westward on LOT radar.

I can only guess the Wxbell one will pop some 20" amounts with the modeled qpf.

00z Euro came in hot for the OV and into southeast Michigan.