Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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I'm not one to criticize every NWS decision, but they probably should've gone with a warning. The 8" in 24 hours may very well be met, but even if it's not, the very cold temps and timing will make it higher impact.
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Yes
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At least I-65 will be smooth sailing with no problems.
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Good starting point. I'm sure they must be a little nervous with some of the CAM runs having enormous amounts in/near the city. 8-12" is a much different feel than, say, 18-24". If you underdo it in an unpopulated area, only so many people are affected. If you underdo it in Chicago, a few million people will be wondering what the heck happened.
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Without thinking twice, I would give up all of next winter to shift that squarely into mby, especially since we're already starting off with good snow depths.
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There could be 100" of snow and it will remain a winter storm watch/warning, since it has the synoptic component. Could perhaps make an argument to convert to LES headlines sometime on Tuesday since it will be transitioning to pure lake effect then.
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What is your shift schedule coming up?
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Without checking myself, are the WPC maps from this morning? And if not, who cares? Indy is locked and loaded.
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Fwiw, my observation over the years has been that the ARW tends to have some westward bias. So maybe put that 30" around Evanston or so lol
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Interesting to see the lack of a better lake enhanced signal on the Chicago side of the lake. I think you probably discount it at this point as almost all signs point to the Illinois side getting pounded.
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Not sure what to call here, so maybe I won't make one Feel like about an equal case could be made for 6-8" or 12".
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Yeah, but think of the times that ORD cashes in and downtown gets screwed.
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Somebody will pull 18" imo as long as the band doesn't pull some shenanigans and largely go offshore.
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I almost hate to see the nw shift, because it potentially leaves me in a little bit of a no mans land between the heaviest synoptic rates and the longest residence time of the lake band. OTOH, synoptic snow is more reliable to count on and not so subject to micro shifts, so I feel like the floor on amounts is higher than it was yesterday.
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Haven't looked in detail yet but conceptually, I'd think this farther northwest surface low track would make it even more likely that the band parks in Illinois for a while.
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Last 4 NAM runs valid at 6z Tuesday. I guess the question is if it is done trending.
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6z NAM with a bump northwest.
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^that is crazy to see dual maxes of about 18"+. Imagine what could happen if it stalled out in one place for longer than expected.
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I about fainted when I saw that run lol. Still going nicely at the end of the run. Something with this high of a ceiling doesn't come around too often for the northwest tip of Indiana and especially Chicago. It's not like the traditional snowbelts where you get good chances more often. Yeah there's some synoptic snow to fall back on, but it would sting if this one doesn't live up and produce 12+
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The way I see it, the population of this board is sort of representative of the general population. The Chicago metro area has something like 9 million people, so you would expect more Chicago area posters here than, say, Indianapolis or Cincinnati area posters. That being said, to anybody in the Ohio Valley area who is lurking, feel free to join in.
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Add this to the pound town models.
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This has a shot to be highly disruptive/borderline crippling for a localized area that stays under it the longest. Blowing/drifting not necessarily a major factor but there should be a bit of wind. The heavy rates and very cold temps could make it very difficult for road crews to keep up with.
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Common theme amongst most of those models (including the HRRR and RAP) is for big amounts somewhere near the IL/IN shore... or both. Obviously I hope it's around here but depending on where it is, I may take a quick ride into it.
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Some of the CAMs are going nuts with 18-24" on or just offshore of IL, and that's through 48 hours.
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Visible toward end of NAM run. Times like these are what make this hobby so fun.
