Hoosier

Monday might feel a little nasty after recent highs near 70. We were just in deep winter last month though, so perhaps the body hasn't become totally unprogrammed from winter cold.

Let's play find the leading edge of the precip shield. Ooh I know, I know *raises hand*

If you bet against warm air aloft, you might win 10% of the time. In no way, shape or form do I buy the HRRR around here.

Would expect more of this as states pull back on mask mandates. Just because your governor's mandate is gone doesn't mean that businesses can't still have a mask policy. Woman Arrested For Resisting, Trespass After Not Wearing Mask Inside Texas Bank https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2021/03/12/woman-arrested-for-resisting-trespass-after-not-wearing-mask-inside-texas-bank/

I will take the under on this though, by far.

Trees, power lines, metal signs, etc should cool off pretty quickly in tandem with air temps imo. I would expect some glazing on those. Although it's mild in the lead-in, we are not torching as much as earlier this week. The thing that is more of a concern to me as far as getting efficient accretion is heavier precip rates.

Completely disagree, especially near/south of I-80.

Currently looking like a mixy mess around here, perhaps favoring sleet more but we'll see. I don't agree with the LOT afd which discounted freezing rain in the cwa. It certainly looks possible in the morning hours (favoring southern cwa) and could even linger past noon imo as the low level cold layer should be slow to modify given easterly flow and ongoing precip. The recent warmth and March sun angle are complicating factors as far as getting a heightened travel impact from the freezing rain. One thing to watch would be anyplace that can lay down a layer of sleet before switching to liquid as that could perhaps increase the road impacts.

Agree about learning to live with it. The current vaccines are really good at preventing the most severe levels of illness and death, so for anybody with a crippling level of worry, go out and get it when you're eligible. We lost a cousin to covid. He was not in the greatest health to begin with but I don't think he would've died very soon if it weren't for covid. I respect what this virus can do and still avoid high risk behaviors (I have not been vaccinated) but there is a difference between that and living like a prisoner.

GFS would have a period of fairly intense conditions on St. Patrick's Day.

I hope more stories like the one I linked make the rounds. People need to have realistic expectations and not think this virus will be eradicated from the globe anytime soon. There is reason to think we can have a semi-normal summer, given the large number of prior infections and increasing numbers of vaccinations in this country. But I'd be shocked if there isn't a resurgence of sorts as we get into fall as the seasonality component rears its head, combined with a percentage of people remaining unvaccinated and the possibility of more variants either originating in or entering the United States.

This article below is a pretty realistic take imo. It is natural to want a magical ending where there is no such thing as covid-19. The good news is that things will be a lot better than they have been in the past year. COVID-19 is never going to end, experts say When is this finally going to end? That's the question on many minds after a year of living through the COVID-19 pandemic. But public health experts say we do have an answer, and you're not going to like it: COVID-19 is never going to end. It now seems poised to become an endemic disease — one that is always a part of our environment, no matter what we do. "We've been told that this virus will disappear. But it will not," Dr. William Schaffner, a professor at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine and medical director of the National Foundation For Infectious Diseases, tells CBS News. https://www.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-never-going-end-173300929.html

Coincidentally I just came across this. It'll be important for stories like this to make the rounds to set people's expectations about the future. It is natural to want a magical ending where there is no such thing as covid-19. The good news is that things will be a lot better than they have been in the past year. COVID-19 is never going to end, experts say When is this finally going to end? That's the question on many minds after a year of living through the COVID-19 pandemic. But public health experts say we do have an answer, and you're not going to like it: COVID-19 is never going to end. It now seems poised to become an endemic disease — one that is always a part of our environment, no matter what we do. "We've been told that this virus will disappear. But it will not," Dr. William Schaffner, a professor at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine and medical director of the National Foundation For Infectious Diseases, tells CBS News. https://www.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-never-going-end-173300929.html

I sure hope we can have as close to a normal summer as possible. Beyond that... even with tremendously large numbers of vaccinations and prior infections, I think it would be wise to mentally prepare for a rise next fall/winter so it doesn't come as a big surprise and a letdown. Seasonality factors, plus some percentage of the public remaining unvaccinated plus the potential for more troublesome variants popping up in the coming months (if not in the US then in other countries and spreading here) which may cut into the effectiveness of the vaccines.

As vaccination opens up to younger/less vulnerable groups, I wonder if we are going to run into a "why should I bother" issue if the metrics keep improving. Having a large supply of a 1 dose vaccine doesn't hurt, but generally speaking it seems like it may be tougher to convince a healthy 30 year old than a 70 year old especially if the metrics keep getting better.

You can tell we're getting out of winter. Almost an hour in and nobody replied lol Winds look decent, so conditions could look pretty respectable for a while where precip rates are heavier.

Why not

Looks like a wintry system worthy of discussion, with all precip types possible. As mentioned in the other thread, I would think any freezing rain threat would be most significant on elevated objects given the warm spell and lack of much cold air at the surface ahead of the storm.

Was clicking around the Midwest states and most have pretty much plateaued in cases lately. Interestingly, Michigan is actually rising. Earlier on, this would mean plateauing hospital numbers (or rising in the case of Michigan) a little bit down the road but the old rules may not work like they did before with the large number of older people who have been vaccinated.

I do have a funny mask related story from my aunt. She was in a store a while back and her old high school friend thought she recognized her and attempted to strike up a conversation. My aunt didn't feel like talking so she played dumb and acted like it wasn't her. I wonder how long Holcomb is going to keep the statewide mask mandate. The Biden speech last night made it sound like the timeline for any adult who wants a vaccine has been moved up to May, so factoring in the post-vaccination delay to build up immunity would take us into June. I think that is a reasonable point to take away the mandate but not sure if Holcomb will wait that long.

Some people actually enjoy wearing a mask. Imagine that. https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/For-some-wearing-a-mask-is-liberating-16019292.php

I love the old Fujita map. This kind of detailed damage plot was ahead of its time. Click for higher resolution.

NBA shut down 1 year ago tonight. I remember when I first heard that and how shocking it was. And it was only the beginning. Then came the panic buying. It's been a crazy year and thankfully the light at the end of the tunnel gets brighter with time.

Brazil is a shitshow. They just posted their daily record high for deaths. I am guessing that the vaccine rollout hasn't been going well over there.