Hoosier

Fwiw, I am leaning toward a changeover to wet snow on/near the northern flank of the precip on Thursday. It may be rate dependent but precip rates do look mod/hvy with freezing levels/wet bulbs getting just low enough to support some snow. Somewhat low confidence.

To change to snow or not to change to snow, that is the question. Either way, a nasty cold/windy system.

Hospitalizations are starting to go back up in Michigan, so between cases/hospitalizations, they are definitely bucking the national trends. Given increasing vaccinations, you'd hope that the number of hospitalizations would be less for a given number of cases than what it was in the past.

Good news, the NAM changes it to snow.

It's true that the current vaccines are outstanding at preventing hospitalization. I think the concern would be that the more people that are unvaccinated, the more the virus is allowed to fester and possibly eventually lead to a more troublesome variant that the vaccines don't protect as well against (in terms of a severe outcome). Not necessarily an immediate concern. It sounds like at least some of the vaccines could be tweaked rather quickly to account for variants, but that is still a process and would take time to develop and roll out to the masses.

Doesn't take much ice when it's that windy PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1020 PM EDT MON MAR 15 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0947 PM FREEZING RAIN 5 WNW WEST LAFAYETTE 40.48N 86.99W 03/15/2021 M0.11 INCH TIPPECANOE IN CO-OP OBSERVER THIS IS THE MEASUREMENT OF GLAZE AND A TRACE OF SLEET FROM EARLIER TODAY ON TREES AND UTILITY LINES. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO WHITE PINES ON STATION GROUNDS. SEVERAL DEAD LIMBS FROM A LARGE PIN OAK SNAPPED OFF AS WELL. PEAK WIND GUST 51 MPH. MULTIPLE OTHER LIMBS DOWN ON WAY HOME. && $$ BH

Cool stuff

Some countries overseas have suspended use of AstraZeneca vaccine because of some people getting blood clots. Obviously may be coincidental but they are supposed to be seeking an EUA for use in the US soon. Will be interesting to see if they seek the EUA on schedule or wait until this potential issue is sorted out.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 304 PM CDT MON MAR 15 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0300 PM FREEZING RAIN EUREKA 40.72N 89.27W 03/15/2021 M0.20 INCH WOODFORD IL PUBLIC RELAYED VIA PICTURE ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

Eyeballing outside, the pavement looks like a skating rink. I don't think it would've looked quite like that with plain freezing rain, but the sleet really adheres well even after the recent warmth.

The burst of heavy precip and finally better saturation has knocked the temp back into the upper 20s.

Per local news report, there are multiple crashes + injuries on I-65 in northwest Indiana. Because of course.

Back to sleet. And pouring down.

Where's our IND crew? I see the airport is reporting zr. Any sign of icing?

I call it Taco Hell. Haven't had it in a long time but another thing is that the food always seemed to be cold. I'm not talking about going to the drive through and it getting cold by the time you get home. It was cold pretty much right away.

Seems like it's mostly snow here now.

Check that. Precip is underway.

My destiny. Dews are barely into double digits around here though so it may take some time.

Don't feel bad about sharing. Obviously a lot of people in your age group are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and resolve very quickly, but I have heard of a lot of stories of young people in their 20s/30s who have lingering symptoms. Hope you are back to normal soon.

Poor Kankakee

Not 100% convinced but if it can stay predominantly sleet for long enough, then I think somebody south of I-80 in the LOT cwa could end up with a good inch of sleet, particularly on colder surfaces.

Alek is like 4 days late with a call. The people want to know.

LOT had a rather lengthy discussion for this. Here's part of it. I think there is some upside to these forecast snow amounts and would not be surprised to see a band of 3-5" somewhere in the northern tier or two of counties. The precipitation type forecast remains challenging and convoluted even as we are within 24 hours of the event now, and our forecast grids reflect that as they seem to resemble a child`s finger painting with all of the various colors representing different precipitation types and mixes splattered across the area. This is primarily due to the combination of the presence of a 850-700 mb warm (above freezing) nose, which will melt some amount of snow aloft; sub-700 mb temperature profiles generally hugging the freezing line, meaning that even a 1-2F degree difference somewhere in the temperature profile could swing precipitation type from one mode to another; and the continuing feed of dry air that will keep wet-bulb temperature profiles mainly below freezing in the lower levels, allowing for evaporative cooling to offset much of the ongoing low-level warm air advection. That being said, based on our current forecast, the general precipitation type evolution looks to feature a wintry mix including sleet and possibly freezing rain across the southern two-thirds of the forecast area during the morning and early afternoon with the main bout of precipitation likely ending as rain or a rain/snow mix by late afternoon. Across our northern counties, we look to have a more homogeneous precip type forecast of mainly snow during the morning and early afternoon. Although, it is likely that some other precip types will at least briefly mix in somewhere here before most of the precipitation ends (a rain/snow mix seems to be the favored solution, but a mix including sleet is not entirely out of the question either). Moderate to briefly heavy precipitation rates would be favored to occur shortly after precipitation onset and will generally diminish as the precip shield marches northeastward with time as the upper low starts shearing out more and the associated sources of lift weaken. The majority of any precipitation looks to end by the early evening as a mid-level dry slot slides through the area, but some patches of drizzle and/or snizzle could hang around into the overnight hours. Additionally, as the occluded surface low tracks across central Illinois, a wave tracking overhead should induce a more concentrated area of rain showers across mainly the southern half of the forecast area Monday night, although some of this activity will likely sneak into the Chicago metro. Some of these showers would be convectively-driven, and it`s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that we get an isolated lightning strike or two somewhere in the forecast area. All precipitation should be out of the area by daybreak Tuesday. The going precipitation accumulation forecasts of up to 0.5" of sleet, up to 0.1" of ice accumulation generally south of I-80, and 1- 3" of very wet 5:1 to 8:1 SLR snow generally north of I-80 (highest accumulations towards the Rockford metro and northwest Illinois where better forcing with the right entrance region of an easterly upper jet streak will be present) with 1" or less generally south of I-80 seem adequate. However, with surface temperatures expected to mainly be at or above freezing by the afternoon, any ice accumulations from freezing rain would likely not last long, and the wet snow may have difficulty accumulating on relatively warm roadways, which should limit the overall impacts that we see with this system. We opted to not issue any Winter Weather Advisories for both this reason and because of the persisting uncertainty with exact precipitation types and rates. Nevertheless, the potential for slushy snow accumulations on colder roadways and the brief potential for freezing rain to impact travel will be messaged via SPSs and graphics.

Continental Europe not doing too great. I think it is a combination of variants and not getting the vaccines rolled out as quickly as places like the US, UK, Israel.

I'll go 1-2" of snow/sleet here. The wave swinging in Monday night looks a little too warm locally and is not factoring into my call.