Hoosier

Out of curiosity, someone should check what the 1991-2020 normals will be for St. Louis. I bet their min temps went up significantly as well. I have noticed some pretty nasty UHI around there during some of the bigger heat days.

I thought it was actually over 200 child deaths so far. I recall someone posting that number somewhere. My point had more to do with reaching a semblance of herd immunity in the US. You hear these numbers thrown out there that it may take 70%, 80%, etc through a combination of vaccinations and prior infections. If that's the case, that is quite a few months away. Doesn't mean that things won't continue to get better in the meantime.

There are about 65 million kids under the age of 16 in the US. I did some math, and to get 70% of the country vaccinated without those under age 16 would take about 87% of age 16+ to get vaccinated. Basically, we won't have a realistic chance to get to 70% of the country vaccinated until it opens up for the age groups under 16.

Real estate banter is better than fighting about masks. On the subject of the virus, it sounds like extra personnel but not extra vaccines are going to be sent to Michigan. Interesting decision.

A relative of mine recently became a realtor and he says it is crazy right now. Obviously he has no past experience to base it on but since he is new, he works with a mentor who has been at it for decades and even she says it is great now.

You are the one going on about masks causing more covid cases. How about this. Show us examples of places that were surging in cases, then implemented a mask mandate, and continued to surge in cases more than a few weeks after. Masks reduce transmission. They cause a decrease in cases or will at least help to slow down an increase. For all we know, Michigan could be averaging over 10k cases per day right now without masking. Could somebody have covid on the outside of their mask and then reuse it (without washing) and contaminate themselves with covid in the process? Sure, I guess, but the overall benefit to reducing viral transmission is greater.

I'm in favor of open discussion in here but even I am tired of your posts. Not a good thing.

Not the same thing. I live in an area with a decent amount of people of color, and I can't remember the last time I saw one without a mask. I'm going to guess that access to a mask is easier than access to a vaccine at present.

The "passports", or at least the discussion of implementing them very soon.

It's already starting though. Was just reading a story yesterday about some places in Las Vegas.

Based on who has been vaccinated the most so far, you could make an argument that a vaccine passport is racist. Others can make that argument if they want. I mean, we still have a sizable chunk of white America that hasn't been vaccinated either.

Oh boy, so much could be said in response to this. But no use talking about a guy who didn't deal with covid and left office 12 years ago.

If you're severely immunocompromised and can't receive the vaccine, I guess find another business then?

So you think you've seen it all during the pandemic? Filipino man dies after being forced to perform hundreds of squats for breaking COVID-19 curfew near Manila https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2021/04/08/philippines-covid-curfew-man-dies-after-being-forced-do-300-squats/7137719002/

Are they though? I bet they are no better than middle of the pack when looking at numbers per capita. Florida has started to go back up after mid March. Whether it is spring break or something else, who knows.

Have there been studies in the UK or elsewhere looking at the B.1.1.7 variant spread among kids? Since it seems to be more contagious in general, it would not be unreasonable to think that kids could spread that variant more efficiently than "original" covid.

They should just stop the athletic activities for the rest of the school year, or at least most of them. Even if student athletes are wearing masks, you're going to tend to breathe harder while you're playing, thus negating some of the benefits from the mask. Also, think about what can happen in association with these activities. If the whole team is going out to dinner or for ice cream, that is more potential exposure.

Michigan hospitalizations are at November/December levels. You would expect not as many deaths in the upcoming weeks as last time, but it's still a shame to see this happening.

I've been watching the numbers for the 60s and older group. I believe they are nearly 75% vaccinated. They have had access the longest and it would be good if the percentage in that group can ultimately exceed 80%. I wouldn't expect the percentages in the younger adult age groups to be on quite the same level as the older age groups, so perhaps it will ultimately settle out with something like 70% of adults vaccinated as polls have suggested. We can hope anyway.

I think in-person school should be available if at all possible. I feel like some areas have been dragging their feet too much with reopening for in-person learning. Perhaps you cut out the sports/extracurricular activities for now. CDC came out and said they believe the B.1.1.7 UK variant is now the dominant one in the US. It appears to be more contagious in general, so kids may also be able to spread that one more. Thankfully we are coming closer to the end of the school year, but we're still talking about a couple more months in many cases.

Probably a combination of more variant spread, pandemic fatigue, loosening restrictions and being a northern state without consistent summer type weather yet. It's almost like they are their own country with the amount of spread happening there. I wouldn't think their daily case average could go that much higher than it is currently, but then again, I wouldn't have thought it would get to this level (they are not all that far below their fall/winter peak in cases) so I have some humility when making that statement.

We are going to have to get that number down in the next few weeks or else run the risk of deaths plateauing for a while. Deaths are still on an overall decreasing trend, but we have spent quite a bit of time now with hospitalizations around or over 35k.

As far as the summer, I think it can be a semi-normal one if we play our cards right. Will it be exactly like 2019 in every way? No, but the situation will be better than we've seen. By fall, we will be dealing with the competing influences of a very large percentage of vaccinations and seasonality wanting to take us back up. I would almost bank on an increase in cases as we get to fall/winter because it will be hard to entirely defeat the seasonality component, but it all comes down to how much. Kids may become an increasing driver of spread since they will be the least vaccinated... of course the protocols in schools will play a role in that... will masking still be required in school, etc? I'm not sure if vaccinations will have started in the 12-15 year old age group in time for the fall 2021 school year, but they almost certainly won't have started for children under 12.

With yesterday's high of 81 and today's high of 82 at ORD, it is the earliest back to back 80+ readings for Chicago since... take a guess... March 2012

Many of us will probably have some immediate or extended family members who don't get the vaccine. So I was thinking up a scenario... Let's say one of your unvaccinated family members was recently diagnosed with covid. That person lives with people who are also unvaccinated, but they don't have symptoms. There's a big family get together planned in a couple days and those unvaccinated family members insist on attending since they don't feel sick. You know the gathering will be held indoors (maybe it is raining or whatever) with nobody wearing a mask. You have been vaccinated, so you're reasonably protected. Do you attend that gathering? Personally, I still don't think I'd feel comfortable. Let's use Pfizer and Moderna as examples. They are both around 95% effective at preventing illness. But from a layman's perspective, if you're in that particular situation, it seems to me like you may be protected at something less than 95%. Even after getting the vaccine, I'm not going to just say screw it entirely and put myself in a situation where I know for certain that people were exposed. One of the things I still want to know is if the vaccines prevent long hauler covid. There have been some reports of long hauler covid going away in people after they got the vaccine, but it needs more research, and that is a little bit different than saying that the vaccine prevents long hauler covid in the breakthrough cases. If a vaccinated person is still able to have a breakthrough covid infection, then I think it remains to be seen whether the vaccine would prevent long hauler covid in those people. Going to take time to compile enough data on those breakthrough cases.